# Silicon: Cycles Boom in 2022, then a slide to the lowest since 2016 Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/silicon/cycles/ What this tab covers Price history and what drives booms and busts, including this commodity's super-cycles, the drivers behind them and the metrics to track. It charts monthly prices (World Bank) with a switch to inflation-adjusted annual prices; where there is no World Bank series it uses USGS US prices. Prices swing with Chinese capacity and power costs. The US silicon metal price averaged 220 cents per pound in 2021, jumped to 362 in 2022, then fell to 170 in 2024 and an estimated 130 in 2025. USGS attributes the 2025 slide to oversupply, weak aluminium and silicon demand, and polysilicon stocks; Chinese prices in April 2025 were the lowest since November 2016. Ferrosilicon tracks steel instead; its 75% grade averaged about 3% more over January-October 2025 than in 2024. Furnaces can be idled and restarted within months, so supply responds faster than for mined metals. #### US price, US silicon metal, mean import price (Platts) 2021 220 2022 362 2023 180 2024 170 2025 130 cents per pound of silicon. USGS MCS 2026; 2025 is an estimate. #### Super-cycles in silicon Silicon prices follow Chinese capacity and power policy more than geology, since quartz is everywhere. The solar boom of the 2010s and 2020s pulled huge polysilicon and silicon metal capacity into China, which now makes almost 80% of silicon materials (USGS). That gives a pattern of short spikes when Chinese supply is disrupted and long slumps from overcapacity. A long-run price series was not available in the sources used; the USGS series shows silicon metal swinging from 220 cents/lb in 2021 to 362 in 2022 and 130 in 2025. 1. 2021-2022 A post-pandemic surge in aluminium, silicone and solar demand coincided with tight Chinese supply. US silicon metal rose from 220.31 to 361.86 cents/lb and 75% ferrosilicon from 192.28 to 312.10 cents/lb between 2021 and 2022 (USGS) 2. 2023-2025 Chinese capacity growth, weak aluminium and silicone demand and large polysilicon stocks produced oversupply. In April 2025 Chinese silicon metal prices were the lowest since November 2016 (USGS). US silicon metal fell to 179.69 (2023), 170.34 (2024) and about 130 cents/lb (Jan-Oct 2025) (USGS); Ferroglobe's average fell from $3,262/t to $2,924/t (2025) 3. 2025-2026 Trade defence spread: the US imposed anti-dumping and countervailing duties on ferrosilicon from Brazil, Kazakhstan and Malaysia (April 2025), pursued a silicon metal anti-dumping case with preliminary duties (Ferroglobe), and the EU introduced ferroalloy safeguards (November 2025). The US added silicon to its critical minerals list. US 75% ferrosilicon about 140 cents/lb in 2025, 3% above 2024, while silicon metal stayed weak (USGS) #### What drives the cycle - **Chinese solar and polysilicon investment.** Polysilicon is the fastest-growing use and China makes most of it. - **Chinese power prices and policy.** Smelting is power-intensive; hydro seasons in south-west China and coal power in Xinjiang change output. - **Aluminium casting demand from cars.** About 38% of silicon metal (EU) goes into aluminium alloys. - **Steel output.** Ferrosilicon tracks steel and foundry production. - **Trade defence measures.** US and EU duties create regional price premiums over China. #### Metrics to track | Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it | |---|---|---| | **Guangzhou Futures Exchange industrial silicon and polysilicon futures and warehouse stocks** | Real-time Chinese market signal | GFEX daily data | | **Chinese polysilicon and silicon metal output and inventories** | Overcapacity gauge | SMM; China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association silicon branch | | **Global solar installations** | Polysilicon demand | IEA; China National Energy Administration monthly | | **European and US silicon metal and ferrosilicon prices** | Shows trade-defence premiums | Fastmarkets; S&P Global Platts; CRU | | **Ferroglobe and Elkem quarterly volumes and prices** | Western producer health | Company reports | ## Other sections - [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/silicon/index.md) - [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/silicon/overview/index.md) - [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/silicon/correlation/index.md) - [Extraction](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/silicon/extraction/index.md) - [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/silicon/production/index.md) - [Stocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/silicon/stocks/index.md) - [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/silicon/trading/index.md) - [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/silicon/movement/index.md) - [Criticality](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/silicon/criticality/index.md) - [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/silicon/characteristics/index.md) - [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/silicon/emissions/index.md) - [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/silicon/links/index.md)