# Soda ash: Correlation Prices it moves with, and why Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/soda_ash/correlation/ Soda ash comes from natural trona in the United States and Turkey or from synthetic plants in China and India using salt, limestone and energy. Flat, container and solar glass, detergents and lithium carbonate set demand; Chinese capacity swings drive prices. Proxy **US producer price index: alkalies and chlorine incl. natural soda ash** index, BLS base period · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 There is no free public price for soda ash itself, so this tab uses the closest public series as a stand-in. Read the numbers as an indication, not as the price of this exact item. #### What its price moves with Selected link ##### Soda ash and Salt Monthly changes -0.10 little or none correlation 12-month changes -0.09 little or none correlation Lead or lag −5 mo Soda ash tends to lead by 5 months (r 0.15) Price function, Jan 2006 to Aug 2026 Soda ash ≈ 3.47 × (Salt)^0.86 R² 0.61 On this fit, a 10% higher salt price goes with a 8.6% higher soda ash price over the long run. Units: index, BLS base period and index, BLS base period. Chart: Soda ash and Salt prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size. Chart: Soda ash price against Salt price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic. Commodity [NaCl Salt](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/salt/)Feedstock −0.10 Synthetic soda ash plants use salt brine as their sodium source. The index shows almost no link with salt, at -0.10 monthly and -0.09 yearly, because salt is cheap relative to energy and the proxy index also covers chlorine and caustic soda, whose prices follow different forces. little or none co-movement month to month · 162 months Show charts Commodity [CaO Lime](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/lime/)Feedstock The synthetic process burns limestone to make lime and carbon dioxide, both of which react with brine. Limestone and kiln fuel are therefore core costs, and lime plants are built into soda ash works rather than bought from outside. Not enough overlapping price history to measure. Energy [Gas Natural gas](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/natural_gas/)Energy cost 0.10 Soda ash plants use much steam and heat, from calcining trona to drying the product. The proxy index shows little monthly link with European gas, at 0.10, but yearly moves correlate at 0.49, with the strongest link when gas leads by four months. little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts Energy [Tc Thermal coal](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/thermal_coal/)Energy cost 0.14 Most Chinese synthetic soda ash plants burn coal for steam and lime kilns, so coal costs shape Chinese export prices. The proxy index shows monthly moves at 0.14, yearly moves at 0.44 and a best fit when coal leads by five months. little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts Chemical [Ssi Sodium silicate](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/sodium_silicate/)Product made 0.30 Sodium silicate is made by fusing soda ash with silica sand, so soda ash is its main chemical cost. The two proxy indexes move together, monthly moves at 0.30 and yearly moves at 0.70, as cost changes pass from soda ash into silicate prices. weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts Energy [PV Solar photovoltaics](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_pv/)Demand driver Solar panel cover glass is soda-lime glass, and the boom in Chinese solar glass furnaces became a major new source of soda ash demand. When solar glass expansion slowed, Chinese soda ash prices fell sharply as new capacity met weaker growth. Not enough overlapping price history to measure. How to read these numbers **Correlation of monthly changes** (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak. **12-month changes** compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs. **Price function** is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)^β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation. **Lead or lag** checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months. Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link. Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site. ## Other sections - [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/soda_ash/index.md) - [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/soda_ash/overview/index.md) - [Extraction](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/soda_ash/extraction/index.md) - [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/soda_ash/production/index.md) - [Stocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/soda_ash/stocks/index.md) - [Cycles](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/soda_ash/cycles/index.md) - [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/soda_ash/trading/index.md) - [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/soda_ash/movement/index.md) - [Criticality](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/soda_ash/criticality/index.md) - [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/soda_ash/characteristics/index.md) - [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/soda_ash/emissions/index.md) - [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/soda_ash/links/index.md)