# Sorghum: Cycles

Why sorghum's price shadows maize

Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sorghum/cycles/

Why sorghum's price shadows maize What this tab covers Price history and what drives booms and busts, including this commodity's super-cycles, the drivers behind them and the metrics to track. It charts monthly prices (World Bank) with a switch to inflation-adjusted annual prices; where there is no World Bank series it uses USGS US prices.

The World Bank's monthly sorghum quote stopped in August 2020, but annual real prices continue. In 2010 dollars sorghum rose to $246.7/t in 2012, fell to $162.4 in 2019, peaked at $263.8 in 2022 and eased to $185.1 in 2025. It moves with maize, because feed users switch between them. Chinese buying can open a premium over maize, and trade disputes can close it abruptly. Harvests come in late summer and autumn in the US. Drought in the southern Plains drives US supply shocks.

The World Bank stopped publishing this monthly series in 2020-08. Changes below are measured from that month.
 Last (2020-08) 190 $/mt vs 1 year ago +28% vs 5 years ago +3% vs 10 years ago +32%

#### Sorghum price

Chart: Sorghum monthly price

Chart: Sorghum annual real price
 Deflated by the World Bank manufactures unit value index (2010 = 100). Source: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026 release.

#### Super-cycles in sorghum

Sorghum has no cycle of its own. It rides the feed-grain booms of 1973-74, 2007-08 and 2010-12 because feed buyers switch freely between sorghum and maize. On top of that come shocks from Chinese demand and US Plains drought. The World Bank monthly series (US Gulf) rose from $39/t in January 1960 to a high of $302.5/t in August 2011 and stopped in August 2020 at $189.5/t. In real 2010 dollars, the annual average was $246.7/t in 2012, $162.4/t in 2019, $263.8/t in 2022 and $185.1/t in 2025, so the long-run real price is roughly flat with sharp spikes.

1. 1972-1974

Soviet grain purchases, poor harvests and the oil shock lifted all feed grains. Sorghum tripled with maize.

World Bank monthly average from $49.8/t (June 1972) to $149.3/t (October 1974)

2. 1995-1996

Short US maize and sorghum crops and low world stocks drove a brief spike that reversed with the 1996 harvest.

$188.7/t (April 1996), back to $96.2/t (July 1997)

3. 2005-2008

US ethanol expansion, high oil prices and low grain stocks pushed feed grains up; the financial crisis ended it.

$90/t (January 2005) to $262.2/t (June 2008)

4. 2010-2012

A drought-cut US crop (5.41 Mt in 2011/12, USDA PSD) and the 2012 US drought kept prices at records.

$131/t (June 2010) to the series high of $302.5/t (August 2011)

5. 2013-2018

China's import boom: imports rose from 0.63 Mt (2012/13) to 10.16 Mt (2014/15) as buyers avoided high-priced state maize; then China's 2018 anti-dumping case against US sorghum cut imports to 0.65 Mt in 2018/19 (USDA PSD).

$234.4/t (March 2014) down to $144.3/t (November 2016)

6. 2020-2023

China's buying resumed (10.99 Mt in 2021/22) and the 2022 US drought halved the crop to 4.77 Mt; feed-grain prices hit records after the war in Ukraine.

Monthly series ends August 2020 at $189.5/t; annual real price (2010 dollars) $263.8/t in 2022

#### What drives the cycle

- **Maize prices.** Sorghum is priced as a basis to CBOT maize; when maize rises, feed users bid up sorghum too.
- **Chinese import policy and demand.** China takes about 89% of world imports by value (2024). Tariffs, anti-dumping cases and the maize-sorghum price gap in China swing US exports by millions of tonnes.
- **Drought in the US southern Plains and Australia.** Nearly all commercial sorghum is dryland; a dry year can halve US output, as in 2022.
- **Ethanol and low-carbon fuel policy.** US ethanol plants are a steady domestic outlet; fuel policy changes demand.
- **Food security in Africa and India.** Rain failures in the Sahel and Horn of Africa and conflict in Sudan drive food aid and local prices, though they move world prices less.

#### Metrics to track

| Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it |
|---|---|---|
| **US sorghum supply and use, and world balance** | Main benchmark for exportable supply | USDA WASDE and PSD, monthly |
| **US export sales and inspections to China** | Weekly read on Chinese demand | USDA FAS Export Sales Reporting, weekly |
| **China monthly sorghum imports** | Confirms arrivals and origin mix | China General Administration of Customs (GACC) |
| **CBOT corn futures and Gulf sorghum basis** | Sorghum is priced off maize | CME Group; USDA AMS grain market reports |
| **US Drought Monitor for Kansas and Texas** | Early warning on yield | US Drought Monitor (NDMC, USDA, NOAA), weekly |
| **India jowar advance estimates and MSP** | India's output and price floor | Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare (DES); CCEA MSP decisions |
| **Sahel and Horn of Africa food security outlook** | Harvest and price risk in food-sorghum regions | FEWS NET |

## Other sections

- [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sorghum/index.md)
- [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sorghum/overview/index.md)
- [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sorghum/correlation/index.md)
- [Extraction](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sorghum/extraction/index.md)
- [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sorghum/production/index.md)
- [Stocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sorghum/stocks/index.md)
- [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sorghum/trading/index.md)
- [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sorghum/movement/index.md)
- [Criticality](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sorghum/criticality/index.md)
- [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sorghum/characteristics/index.md)
- [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sorghum/emissions/index.md)
- [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sorghum/links/index.md)