# Steel: Criticality

Not critical itself, but every chain depends on it

Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/steel/criticality/

What this tab covers How exposed economies are to a supply disruption: the EU, US and India listings, the concentration score, and a quantified exposure for the US, EU, India, China, Japan, Latin America, the Middle East and Australia. Where the EU scored it, a chart of supply risk against economic importance, with import reliance, recycling input and substitutes.

#### Exposure by region

| Region | Exposure | Share of world output | Share of world imports | Share of world exports | Net trade (US$) | On own critical list | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| **US** | High | – | 14.5% | 0.3% | −$4.54 bn | No | Produced about 82 Mt in 2025 with net import reliance of 13%, mainly from Canada, Mexico and Brazil, and protected by 50% Section 232 tariffs from June 2025; about 72% of output is scrap-based (USGS 2026). |
| **EU** | High | – | 21.0% | 13.3% | −$3.63 bn | No | Germany (38 Mt) and Italy lead EU production; Italy took 6.0% of 2024 semi-finished imports, and the EU lists coking coal, a key input, as a critical raw material (USGS; Comtrade; EU CRM 2023). |
| **India** | Low | – | 0.8% | 2.1% | +$222.1 m | No | Second-largest producer at about 160 Mt (2025e) and the fastest-growing market; it was a net importer of finished steel in FY2025 (9.6 Mt imports, 4.9 Mt exports) but a small net exporter by tonnage in Apr-Dec 2025 (4.8 Mt exports, 4.6 Mt imports) (Ministry of Steel Annual Report 2025-26). |
| **China** | Low | – | 3.1% | 13.1% | +$2.02 bn | No | Makes about 980 Mt, over half of world steel (2025e), and is a large exporter of finished and semi-finished steel (15.5% of 2024 semi-finished exports). |
| **Japan** | Low | – | 0.6% | 6.3% | +$1.26 bn | No | Produced about 81 Mt (2025e), exports high-grade steel (7.4% of semi-finished exports, 2024), and its Nippon Steel bought a major US producer in 2025 (USGS). |
| **Latin America** | Low | – | 7.9% | 24.7% | +$3.13 bn | no list | Brazil made about 35 Mt (2025e) and leads semi-finished (20.1%) and pig iron (45.1%) exports, much of it to US mills (USGS; Comtrade 2024). |
| **Middle East** | Low | – | 4.3% | 6.2% | +$31.8 m | no list | Iran (32 Mt) and Turkey (37 Mt) are large producers (2025e); Turkey is the top importer of semi-finished steel (15.8%) and of scrap, and Gulf states run gas-based DRI. |
| **Australia** | Low | – | 0.3% | 0.0% | −$91.2 m | No | A small steelmaker that is the world's largest exporter of the inputs, iron ore and metallurgical coal, so its exposure is to steel demand abroad. |

 Exposure rating: **High** when the region is a net importer whose import share is at least three times its share of world output (or, for farm goods, it produces under 70% of what it consumes); **Medium** for other net importers (or 70-95% self-sufficiency), raised to High when world supply is highly concentrated in another country; **Low** for net exporters or self-sufficient regions. Net importer status uses tonnage where reported, otherwise value. Output: n/a. Trade: UN Comtrade 2024 (EU = sum of member states, including intra-EU trade). Critical lists: US 2025, EU 2024/1252, India 2023, China 2016 strategic minerals, Japan METI, Australia 2024.

Steel is not on the US 2025 or India 2023 critical lists, and the EU assesses its inputs rather than steel itself. Its importance is systemic, since almost every other supply chain uses it. The vulnerabilities lie in inputs. The US added metallurgical coal to its 2025 list because of its role in blast furnaces. Alloying metals such as manganese, chromium and niobium have few easy substitutes. Steel faces competition at the margin from aluminium and plastics in cars, and from concrete and wood in construction.
 EU 2023 Not assessed US 2025 list No India 2023 list No US net import reliance, 2025 13% share of apparent consumption

#### Substitutes

Aluminium and plastics in cars; aluminium, concrete and wood in construction; aluminium, glass, paper and plastics in containers

## Other sections

- [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/steel/index.md)
- [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/steel/overview/index.md)
- [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/steel/correlation/index.md)
- [Extraction](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/steel/extraction/index.md)
- [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/steel/production/index.md)
- [Stocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/steel/stocks/index.md)
- [Cycles](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/steel/cycles/index.md)
- [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/steel/trading/index.md)
- [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/steel/movement/index.md)
- [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/steel/characteristics/index.md)
- [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/steel/emissions/index.md)
- [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/steel/links/index.md)