# Sugar: Correlation Prices it moves with, and why Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sugar/correlation/ Raw sugar is priced on the New York exchange, driven by harvests in Brazil, India and Thailand, India's export rules, and Brazilian mills' choice between making sugar or ethanol, which links it to petrol prices. Market price **World Bank Pink Sheet: Sugar, world** $/kg · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 #### What its price moves with Selected link ##### Sugar and Bioethanol Monthly changes 0.16 little or none correlation 12-month changes 0.33 weak correlation Last 5 years 0.26 monthly changes Lead or lag none No clear lead or lag Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Sugar ≈ 0.0151 × (Bioethanol)^0.58 R² 0.20 On this fit, a 10% higher bioethanol price goes with a 5.7% higher sugar price over the long run. Units: $/kg and index (BLS base period =100). The fit is loose, so treat the function as a rough guide. Chart: Sugar and Bioethanol prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size. Chart: Sugar price against Bioethanol price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic. Chemical [EtOH Bioethanol](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/bioethanol/)Competing use 0.16 Brazilian mills switch cane between sugar and ethanol depending on which pays more. The bioethanol series is a US index made mainly from maize, so the link is diluted: monthly moves correlate at 0.16 and yearly moves at 0.33. little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts Energy [Oil Crude oil](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/crude_oil/)Energy price link 0.28 High oil prices make Brazilian ethanol more attractive, so mills divert cane away from sugar, which supports sugar prices. Crude oil and sugar correlate at 0.28 for both monthly and yearly moves, a weak common link. weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts Commodity [Mz Maize](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/maize/)Substitute sweetener 0.23 Maize is made into high-fructose syrup that replaces sugar in US drinks, and it is the main US ethanol crop. Monthly moves correlate at 0.23 but yearly moves at just 0.13, as their harvests run on different cycles. weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts Energy [Bag Bagasse and black-liquor cogeneration](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_bio_cogen/)Co-product Crushed cane leaves bagasse, which mills burn to make steam and power, often selling surplus electricity to the grid. This income lowers the cost of making sugar, but there is no public price series for bagasse power here. Not enough overlapping price history to measure. Chemical [Cit Citric acid](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/citric_acid/)Derived product Citric acid is made by fermenting sugar or molasses, so sugar is a main input cost for producers in China and elsewhere. Citric acid has no public price series here, so the link is shown as text only. Not enough overlapping price history to measure. How to read these numbers **Correlation of monthly changes** (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak. **12-month changes** compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs. **Price function** is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)^β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation. **Lead or lag** checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months. Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link. Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site. ## Other sections - [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sugar/index.md) - [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sugar/overview/index.md) - [Extraction](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sugar/extraction/index.md) - [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sugar/production/index.md) - [Stocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sugar/stocks/index.md) - [Cycles](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sugar/cycles/index.md) - [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sugar/trading/index.md) - [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sugar/movement/index.md) - [Criticality](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sugar/criticality/index.md) - [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sugar/characteristics/index.md) - [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sugar/emissions/index.md) - [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sugar/links/index.md)