# Sugar: Cycles A long slide in real prices since 2011 Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sugar/cycles/ What this tab covers Price history and what drives booms and busts, including this commodity's super-cycles, the drivers behind them and the metrics to track. It charts monthly prices (World Bank) with a switch to inflation-adjusted annual prices; where there is no World Bank series it uses USGS US prices. The World Bank world sugar price was $0.41 per kg in September 2026, up from $0.35 a year earlier but below $0.43 five years ago. The ten-year range was $0.23 to $0.58, and the peak since 2000 was $0.65. In real 2010 dollars prices have trended down, from $0.52 in 2011 to $0.32 in 2025. Cycles run through the Brazilian harvest, the Indian monsoon, ethanol parity and oil prices. Because cane is ratooned for several years, plantings respond with a lag, producing classic multi-year gluts and shortages. Latest (2026-09) 0.41 $/kg vs 1 year ago +17% vs 5 years ago -5% vs 10 years ago -13% #### Sugar, world price Chart: Sugar, world monthly price Chart: Sugar, world annual real price Deflated by the World Bank manufactures unit value index (2010 = 100). Source: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026 release. #### Super-cycles in sugar Sugar has some of the most violent price cycles of any commodity. Cane is ratooned for several years, so plantings respond with a lag, and most output is sold in protected home markets, leaving a thin and volatile world market. The World Bank world price spiked from about $0.07/kg in 1970 to $1.24/kg in November 1974, collapsed to $0.06/kg in 1985, and peaked at $0.65/kg in January 2011. In real 2010 dollars the annual price fell from $0.52/kg in 2011 to $0.32/kg in 2025. Since the 2000s Brazil's ethanol link has tied sugar more closely to oil prices, and India's export policy has become a second swing factor. International sugar agreements tried to manage prices and failed (Radetzki and Wårell 2021). 1. 1972-1974 Low stocks, poor harvests, the oil shock and the general commodity boom drove the biggest spike on record. World Bank monthly average from about $0.07/kg (Feb 1970) to $1.24/kg (Nov 1974) 2. 1980-1985 A second spike on low stocks and high oil prices was followed by a glut as EU export subsidies and new capacity flooded the market. monthly average $0.89/kg (Oct 1980) to $0.06/kg (May 1985) 3. 2000-2004 Brazilian expansion after deregulation and subsidised EU exports produced large surpluses; Brazil, Australia and Thailand challenged EU subsidies at the WTO. monthly average about $0.11/kg (Mar 2000) and $0.13/kg (Jan 2004); Geman (2005) puts raw sugar near 6 cents/lb in early 2004 4. 2009-2011 Indian drought turned India into an importer while Brazil's mills favoured ethanol; prices reached their highest level since the early 1980s. monthly average $0.65/kg (Jan 2011), then a slide to $0.25/kg (Aug 2015) 5. 2020-2023 Covid lows were followed by El Nino weather, Indian export curbs and high energy prices. monthly average $0.23/kg (Apr 2020) to $0.58/kg (Sep 2023) 6. 2024-2026 A return to global surplus (ISO: 1.2 Mt in 2025/26) and larger Indian crops pushed prices down before a partial recovery. monthly averages: $0.50/kg (Feb 2024) down to $0.31/kg (Feb 2026), then $0.41/kg (Sep 2026) #### What drives the cycle - **Brazil's sugar-ethanol mix.** Mills switch cane to whichever product pays more, so Petrobras petrol prices, Brazilian blending rules and the real exchange rate set the marginal world supply. - **Indian monsoon and policy.** India's output swings by several million tonnes with rainfall, and export quotas and ethanol diversion decide how much reaches the world market. - **Weather in Thailand and Brazil (ENSO).** El Nino droughts cut Thai and Indian cane; dry spells in Sao Paulo cut Brazilian yields and sugar content. - **Crude oil prices.** Higher oil raises ethanol parity in Brazil and India, pulling cane away from sugar. - **Protection and subsidies.** Tariffs, quotas and support prices in the EU, US, India and China keep most sugar off the world market, so small shifts in surplus move world prices a lot. #### Metrics to track | Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it | |---|---|---| | **Centre-South crush, sugar mix and ATR** | Shows Brazil's fortnightly supply and sugar-ethanol switching | UNICA bi-weekly reports | | **India production, diversion and export quota** | Swing exporter; policy changes move prices | ISMA releases; Department of Food and Public Distribution notices | | **World sugar balance (surplus or deficit)** | Core gauge of tightness | International Sugar Organization quarterly outlook; USDA FAS Sugar: World Markets and Trade (May and November) | | **Ethanol parity and Brazilian petrol prices** | Sets the floor at which mills prefer ethanol | Petrobras price announcements; CEPEA/ESALQ ethanol indicators | | **White premium (No.5 minus No.11)** | Refining margin and destination demand | ICE Futures US and ICE Futures Europe prices | | **Managed-money positions in Sugar No.11** | Speculative positioning amplifies moves | CFTC Commitments of Traders (weekly) | | **Monsoon progress** | Leading indicator for Indian and Thai cane | India Meteorological Department; Thai Office of the Cane and Sugar Board | ## Other sections - [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sugar/index.md) - [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sugar/overview/index.md) - [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sugar/correlation/index.md) - [Extraction](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sugar/extraction/index.md) - [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sugar/production/index.md) - [Stocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sugar/stocks/index.md) - [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sugar/trading/index.md) - [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sugar/movement/index.md) - [Criticality](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sugar/criticality/index.md) - [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sugar/characteristics/index.md) - [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sugar/emissions/index.md) - [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sugar/links/index.md)