# Sulfur: Cycles A price that fell by three-quarters, then quadrupled Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sulfur/cycles/ What this tab covers Price history and what drives booms and busts, including this commodity's super-cycles, the drivers behind them and the metrics to track. It charts monthly prices (World Bank) with a switch to inflation-adjusted annual prices; where there is no World Bank series it uses USGS US prices. There is no World Bank price. The US f.o.b. value swung from $90/t in 2021 to $178/t in 2022, collapsed to $46/t in 2024, then jumped to about $180/t in 2025. Tampa contract prices rose from $116 to $310 per long ton during 2025, the highest since mid-2022. This volatility is classic by-product behaviour. Supply barely responds to price, because it follows refining and gas output. Demand follows fertiliser affordability and metal leaching. New nickel high-pressure acid leach projects are adding demand. #### US price, Elemental sulfur, average unit value, f.o.b. mine and/or plant 2021 90.4 2022 178 2023 58.9 2024 46.4 2025 180 dollars per metric ton. USGS MCS 2026; 2025 is an estimate. #### Super-cycles in sulfur Sulfur has some of the most violent price swings of any commodity, because supply is a fixed by-product and demand comes in waves. Prices can fall to almost nothing when stocks pile up and multiply ten-fold when buyers scramble. Episodes in 2007-08, 2021-22 and 2024-26 each saw prices rise five to ten times and, in the first two, collapse within a year. The current episode combines a structural demand shift (Indonesian nickel, LFP) with a supply shock (the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in 2026). There is no long-run upward trend: oversupply returns whenever demand pauses. 1. 2007-2009 Chinese phosphate demand, Canadian rail strikes and stranded stocks drove a spike, then the financial crisis and a Chinese import halt crushed it. From $45/t (Jan 2007) to over $700/t in 2008; Vancouver FOB fell from $700 to $50/t by Q2 2009 and some sulfur sold at $25/t, with Tampa taking shipments at $5/t in July 2009 (Hydrocarbon Engineering, 2009) 2. 2021-2023 Post-Covid fertiliser demand and the Russia-Ukraine war lifted prices; recession fears and weaker phosphate demand reversed them. US average unit value rose from $90.40/t (2021) to $177.80/t (2022), then fell to $58.90/t (2023) and $46.42/t (2024) (USGS MCS 2026) 3. 2024-2026 Indonesian HPAL nickel and Chinese LFP added over 8 Mt of demand, then the US-Iran war from 28 Feb 2026 closed Hormuz and stranded Gulf supply. Russia and China restricted exports. CFR Indonesia rose from $101/t (Jul 2024) to $554/t (Jan 2026) (Argus); Platts FOB Middle East went from $273/t (5 Feb 2026) to $469/t (30 Apr 2026); Tampa contract rose from $116/long t (Jan 2025) to a record $705/long t (Q3 2026); US Gulf spot reached $1,100-1,150/t FOB (Jul 2026) (USGS, S&P Global, Argus) #### What drives the cycle - **Phosphate fertiliser demand.** Takes about 60% of sulfur. Crop prices, subsidies in India and buying by OCP and Chinese producers set the base load. - **Metal leaching, especially Indonesian HPAL.** Acid use for nickel rose from 3.5 Mt in 2021 to 16 Mt in 2025. Each new HPAL plant adds about 1 Mt of sulfur demand per 400 kt Ni (SMM). - **Gas and refinery output.** Supply follows sour-gas projects (2.1 Mt new Gulf supply expected in 2026, SMM) and refinery runs, not price. - **Gulf geopolitics and shipping.** Over 45% of world supply sits in the Mideast Gulf. Closure of Hormuz in 2026 stranded it and pushed freight to $140-200/t (Argus). - **Chinese import and export policy.** China is the largest importer (9.6 Mt in 2025); its stock levels and export curbs swing the world price. #### Metrics to track | Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it | |---|---|---| | **Middle East monthly contract prices (ADNOC, QatarEnergy, Aramco, KPC)** | Set the tone for the month's spot trade | Argus, CRU, S&P Global Platts | | **Tampa quarterly liquid sulfur contract** | US benchmark for phosphate producers | Argus; USGS MCS | | **China port sulfur inventories and ex-works prices** | Largest buyer; stock builds precede price falls | SMM (news.metal.com) | | **Indonesian MHP output** | Main driver of new acid demand | SMM; S&P Global | | **DAP price** | Fertiliser margin decides whether phosphate plants keep buying sulfur | World Bank Pink Sheet (monthly) | | **India sulfur imports** | Shows Indian fertiliser exposure | DGCIS monthly trade data | ## Other sections - [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sulfur/index.md) - [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sulfur/overview/index.md) - [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sulfur/correlation/index.md) - [Extraction](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sulfur/extraction/index.md) - [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sulfur/production/index.md) - [Stocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sulfur/stocks/index.md) - [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sulfur/trading/index.md) - [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sulfur/movement/index.md) - [Criticality](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sulfur/criticality/index.md) - [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sulfur/characteristics/index.md) - [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sulfur/emissions/index.md) - [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sulfur/links/index.md)