# Thorium: Cycles No market price, only customs values Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/thorium/cycles/ What this tab covers Price history and what drives booms and busts, including this commodity's super-cycles, the drivers behind them and the metrics to track. It charts monthly prices (World Bank) with a switch to inflation-adjusted annual prices; where there is no World Bank series it uses USGS US prices. Thorium has no market price. The average value of US compound imports from France was $27/kg in 2024 and $26 in 2025, little changed since 2021. US exports through July 2025 had a unit value of $291/kg, showing how purity and form drive value. Thorium's supply cycle is the rare-earth cycle. Demand would change only if thorium-fuelled reactors became commercial. Programmes in many countries, including China and India, keep that possibility alive, but timing is uncertain. #### US price, Average unit value of US imports of thorium compounds from France 2021 29.0 2022 26.0 2023 29.0 2024 27.0 2025 26.0 dollars per kilogram. USGS MCS 2026; 2025 is an estimate. #### Super-cycles in thorium Thorium has had demand eras rather than price cycles, and today it has no market price. Early 20th-century gas mantles made monazite valuable, the atomic age made it strategic, and India's 1946 export ban showed how a supplier could hold it back. Later, radioactivity concerns removed most consumer uses, and thorium became an unwanted residue of rare-earth production. The next possible era is nuclear: India's PFBR reached criticality in April 2026, and China and others are testing thorium reactors. Any demand shift would take decades and would first draw on stored residues. 1. 1890s-1940s Thorium oxide gas mantles created the first monazite trade; India's Travancore (Kerala) beach sands became a leading source, and the US sourced thorium from India during the Second World War (Scheyder 2024). no price series in the sources used 2. 1946-1950s Newly independent India blocked monazite exports in 1946 to keep thorium and rare earths for its own industry and nuclear programme; the US tried to link wheat aid to easing the ban (Scheyder 2024). no price series in the sources used 3. 2021-2025 A tiny, sporadic trade in thorium compounds for industry and research, mostly from France and India to the US. US import unit values from France $29/kg (2021), $26/kg (2022), $29/kg (2023), $27/kg (2024), $26/kg (2025e); from India $74/kg (2023); US exports $291/kg (2025, through July) (USGS MCS 2026) 4. 2026 India's 500 MWe PFBR reached first criticality on 6 April 2026 after construction began in 2004, a step toward breeding uranium-233 from thorium. no thorium market price exists #### What drives the cycle - **Rare-earth and mineral-sand output.** Monazite, and therefore thorium, is produced only when rare earths and titanium minerals are mined. - **Thorium reactor programmes.** India's three-stage plan and Chinese molten-salt research are the only routes to large demand. - **Radiation regulation.** Rules on handling and disposal drive both the cost of monazite processing and the loss of consumer uses. - **Indian policy on beach-sand minerals.** India reserves monazite mining for state entities and controls exports. #### Metrics to track | Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it | |---|---|---| | **PFBR operating milestones and FBR fleet plans** | Signals the pace of India's move to thorium | PIB; Department of Atomic Energy; BHAVINI | | **IREL production and rare-earth output** | Sets India's monazite and thorium flow | IREL annual reports; Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha replies | | **China monazite imports by origin** | Shows where thorium-bearing ore flows | China General Administration of Customs; USGS MCS | | **US thorium compound trade and unit values** | Only regular price data | US Census Bureau; USGS MCS | | **Thorium reactor test results (China, Europe, US start-ups)** | Technology readiness | World Nuclear News; NucNet; IAEA | ## Other sections - [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/thorium/index.md) - [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/thorium/overview/index.md) - [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/thorium/correlation/index.md) - [Extraction](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/thorium/extraction/index.md) - [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/thorium/production/index.md) - [Stocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/thorium/stocks/index.md) - [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/thorium/trading/index.md) - [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/thorium/movement/index.md) - [Criticality](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/thorium/criticality/index.md) - [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/thorium/characteristics/index.md) - [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/thorium/emissions/index.md) - [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/thorium/links/index.md)