# Tin: Cycles

A small market now near its highest price since 2000

Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/tin/cycles/

What this tab covers Price history and what drives booms and busts, including this commodity's super-cycles, the drivers behind them and the metrics to track. It charts monthly prices (World Bank) with a switch to inflation-adjusted annual prices; where there is no World Bank series it uses USGS US prices.

Tin averaged $53,712 a tonne in September 2026, 56% above a year earlier and 54% above five years earlier. It was close to its ten-year and post-2000 high of $55,385; the ten-year low was $13,808. In real 2010 dollars the 2025 average of $29,336 almost matched the 2021 spike. A small market with few mines reacts sharply to single disruptions, such as mine suspensions in Myanmar or lower Bolivian output. History warns against price management. The International Tin Council's buffer stock ran out of money in October 1985, and LME tin trading stayed suspended until 1989 (Radetzki & Wårell).
 Latest (2026-09) 54k $/mt vs 1 year ago +56% vs 5 years ago +54% vs 10 years ago +175%

#### Tin price

Chart: Tin monthly price

Chart: Tin annual real price
 Deflated by the World Bank manufactures unit value index (2010 = 100). Source: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026 release.

#### US price, New York dealer refined tin (Platts)
 2021 1,580 2022 1,546 2023 1,256 2024 1,420 2025 1,600 cents per pound. USGS MCS 2026; 2025 is an estimate.

#### Super-cycles in tin

Tin has had clear booms and busts, sharper than most metals because the market is small (about 370,000 t refined a year) and supply is concentrated in a few informal or state-run sources. From 1956 to 1985 producer and consumer governments held the price up through International Tin Agreements; the collapse of that scheme in 1985 halved the price. Tin then joined the China-led boom of 2003-2011, crashed in 2008 and again after 2011, spiked in 2021-22 and set new records in 2026. In real 2010 dollars the 2025 average of $29,336/t matched the 2021 spike (World Bank).

1. 1956-1986

International Tin Agreements used a buffer stock and export quotas to defend a high price. In October 1985 the International Tin Council ran out of money, defaulted on LME contracts with debts over $1 billion, and LME tin trading was suspended until June 1989 (Radetzki and Warell).

World Bank tin averaged $16,775/t in 1980 and $12,756/t in July 1985, then fell to $5,378/t by June 1986

2. 2002-2011

Chinese demand for electronics solder and slower mine supply drove a long rise, broken by the 2008 financial crisis. Indonesia's export curbs on tin from 2003 added to tightness (Pitron).

From $3,731/t (Feb 2002) to $24,062/t (May 2008), down to $11,240/t (Dec 2008), then a peak of $32,363/t (Apr 2011)

3. 2011-2016

China's slowdown, a strong dollar and weak electronics demand pushed tin to a decade low.

Fell to $13,808/t in January 2016, the ten-year low (World Bank)

4. 2021-2022

Pandemic demand for electronics, supply chain shortages and low stocks sent prices to a record, then rising interest rates and a chip-cycle downturn reversed it within months.

From $21,920/t (Jan 2021) to $43,983/t (Feb 2022), then $19,391/t (Oct 2022)

5. 2025-2026

Mine supply fell in Myanmar (20,000 t to 12,000 t) and Bolivia (21,200 t to 15,000 t) in 2025 Prices set new records in 2026.

From $29,612/t (Jan 2025) to a record $55,385/t (Aug 2026); $53,712/t in Sept 2026

#### What drives the cycle

- **Electronics output.** Solder takes about half of tin use, so tin tracks semiconductor and circuit-board cycles more than construction.
- **Fragile, concentrated mine supply.** Myanmar's Wa region, Indonesia's informal miners, DR Congo and Bolivia can each move world supply by several percent through a single suspension or policy change.
- **Resource nationalism in Indonesia.** Export rules, the ICDX trading requirement and enforcement against illegal mining decide how much Indonesian tin reaches the market.
- **Small market and thin exchange stocks.** With about 370,000 t refined a year, a few thousand tonnes of LME or SHFE stock change can swing spreads and prices.
- **Energy transition.** Solar panels, EV electronics and data centres all need solder, adding to long-run demand.

#### Metrics to track

| Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it |
|---|---|---|
| **LME and SHFE tin stocks and spreads** | Shows physical tightness quickly | LME daily stock reports; Shanghai Futures Exchange weekly stocks |
| **Indonesia tin exports and ICDX volumes** | Indonesia is the largest exporter | Indonesia Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources; ICDX |
| **Myanmar (Wa State) concentrate shipments to China** | Key swing supply for Chinese smelters | China Customs (GACC) import data; ITA news |
| **Global semiconductor sales** | Leading indicator of solder demand | WSTS / Semiconductor Industry Association monthly |
| **Chinese refined tin output** | China makes about half of refined tin | SMM; China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association |
| **Company quarterly output (PT Timah, Minsur, Alphamin, Yunnan Tin)** | Large single sources | Company reports; ITA news |

## Other sections

- [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/tin/index.md)
- [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/tin/overview/index.md)
- [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/tin/correlation/index.md)
- [Extraction](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/tin/extraction/index.md)
- [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/tin/production/index.md)
- [Stocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/tin/stocks/index.md)
- [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/tin/trading/index.md)
- [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/tin/movement/index.md)
- [Criticality](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/tin/criticality/index.md)
- [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/tin/characteristics/index.md)
- [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/tin/emissions/index.md)
- [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/tin/links/index.md)