# Tobacco: Cycles

A price that rose by two-thirds in five years

Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/tobacco/cycles/

What this tab covers Price history and what drives booms and busts, including this commodity's super-cycles, the drivers behind them and the metrics to track. It charts monthly prices (World Bank) with a switch to inflation-adjusted annual prices; where there is no World Bank series it uses USGS US prices.

The World Bank series is a US import unit value. It stood at $6,775 per tonne in July 2026, slightly below $7,025 a year earlier but far above $4,078 five years ago. The ten-year range was $3,973 to $7,054, the high also the record since 2000. In real 2010 dollars the annual average fell from $5,095 in 2016 to $3,635 in 2022 as demand weakened, then rose to $5,927 in 2025 as weather-hit harvests in leading exporters tightened supply. As an annual crop, tobacco usually corrects within one or two seasons.
 Latest (2026-07) 6,775 $/mt vs 1 year ago -4% vs 5 years ago +66% vs 10 years ago +39%

#### Tobacco, US import u.v. price

Chart: Tobacco, US import u.v. monthly price

Chart: Tobacco, US import u.v. annual real price
 Deflated by the World Bank manufactures unit value index (2010 = 100). Source: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026 release.

#### Super-cycles in tobacco

Tobacco has no classic super-cycle. Its price is shaped by slowly falling demand outside Asia and Africa and by supply swings in a few exporters. The World Bank series is a US import unit value, so it reflects grade mix as well as market prices. It rose from about $1,000/t in 1971 to $3,681/t in October 1991, held near $4,000-5,000/t through the 2010s, dropped to $3,973/t in August 2021, then climbed to a record $7,054/t in August 2025 after poor crops and low stocks. Global leaf production fell nearly 19% between 2012 and 2024 (Tobacco Insider), which tightened supply even as demand eased. A record Zimbabwe crop in 2026 has already pushed grower prices down 25%.

1. 1972-1976

General inflation and the commodity boom lifted leaf prices from their early-1970s lows.

World Bank US import unit value from $1,001/t (August 1971) to $1,905/t (December 1975)

2. 1989-1995

Prices rose to a peak in 1991, then fell back in the mid-1990s as supply caught up.

$2,724/t (January 1989) to $3,681/t (October 1991), down to $2,501/t (April 1995)

3. 2006-2014

Asian and Middle East cigarette demand grew while Western smoking fell; prices rose steadily.

$2,825/t (April 2006) to $4,607/t (April 2011) and $5,118/t (May 2014)

4. 2014-2021

Falling cigarette volumes and big crops in Brazil and Zimbabwe pushed prices down.

$5,118/t (May 2014) to $3,973/t (August 2021)

5. 2022-2026

Weather-hit crops, low stocks and lower global output lifted prices to records; then record Zimbabwe crops and high carry-over stocks reversed the trend in 2026.

$4,147/t (September 2022) to a record $7,054/t (August 2025); $6,775/t in July 2026; Zimbabwe grower price $2.49/kg in 2026 against $3.32/kg in 2025

#### What drives the cycle

- **Crop size in Brazil, Zimbabwe, India and Malawi.** These four supplied about 47% of world export value in 2024; weather and planting decisions there set the balance.
- **Cigarette volumes and switching to smoke-free products.** Falling cigarette sales cut leaf demand; heated tobacco still uses leaf but e-cigarettes and pouches do not.
- **Taxes and regulation.** Excise increases (India's 2026 changes) and WHO FCTC measures reduce consumption.
- **Merchant and manufacturer stocks.** High carry-over stocks let buyers wait out a crop and push prices down.
- **China's import decisions.** China's monopoly is the largest importer by value (18.1% in 2024).

#### Metrics to track

| Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it |
|---|---|---|
| **Zimbabwe auction and contract sales, volumes and prices** | Most transparent seasonal price | TIMB daily and seasonal reports (reported by EquityAxis and The Herald) |
| **Indian FCV auction prices and volumes** | Indian leaf market | Tobacco Board of India |
| **Brazil export volumes** | Largest exporter | SindiTabaco; Brazil Ministry of Development, Industry and Trade (Comex Stat) |
| **Manufacturer shipment volumes** | Demand for leaf | PMI, BAT and JT quarterly results |
| **World Bank tobacco unit value** | Long-run price benchmark | World Bank Pink Sheet, monthly |
| **Leaf merchant results** | Pricing and stocks commentary | Universal Corporation and Pyxus International quarterly reports |

## Other sections

- [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/tobacco/index.md)
- [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/tobacco/overview/index.md)
- [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/tobacco/correlation/index.md)
- [Extraction](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/tobacco/extraction/index.md)
- [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/tobacco/production/index.md)
- [Stocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/tobacco/stocks/index.md)
- [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/tobacco/trading/index.md)
- [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/tobacco/movement/index.md)
- [Criticality](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/tobacco/criticality/index.md)
- [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/tobacco/characteristics/index.md)
- [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/tobacco/emissions/index.md)
- [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/tobacco/links/index.md)