# Tungsten: Cycles

How export controls doubled prices in a year

Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/tungsten/cycles/

What this tab covers Price history and what drives booms and busts, including this commodity's super-cycles, the drivers behind them and the metrics to track. It charts monthly prices (World Bank) with a switch to inflation-adjusted annual prices; where there is no World Bank series it uses USGS US prices.

Tungsten has no World Bank price; USGS cites Rotterdam prices from Argus. Concentrate averaged $252 per metric ton unit of WO3 in 2024 and an estimated $380 in 2025. During 2025, 65% concentrate rose from $266 to $551 and APT from $331 to $675, roughly doubling. The cause was policy. US tariffs on Chinese tungsten products rose to 50% at the end of 2024, and China imposed export controls in February 2025. Earlier, from 1985 to 2004, China drove prices down, hoping competing mines elsewhere would shut (Pitron).

#### US price, Concentrate, in-warehouse Rotterdam (Argus)
 2021 225 2022 275 2023 258 2024 252 2025 380 dollars per metric ton unit of WO3. USGS MCS 2026; 2025 is an estimate.

#### Super-cycles in tungsten

Tungsten's price history is a story of Chinese policy. China cut prices in 1985-2004 to win market share and push rival mines to close (Pitron), and lifted its share of mine output from 83% in 2000 to 88% in 2013 (Humphreys). Export quotas brought a WTO case that China lost in 2014. Prices were steady in 2021-24, then China's export controls of February 2025 and US tariffs set off a historic spike, with APT going from about $331/mtu to over $2,200/mtu in about 15 months. New mines in Korea, Kazakhstan and North America are the supply response.

1. 1985-2004

Chinese exports flooded the market and drove prices down, closing many Western mines (Pitron 2020).

Price levels for this period were not available in the sources used

2. 2000-2015

China's output rose from 30 kt to 85 kt (Humphreys). The US, EU and Japan challenged China's tungsten and molybdenum export restrictions at the WTO in 2012; China removed them in January 2015 (Radetzki and Warell).

Price levels for this period were not available in the sources used

3. 2021-2024

A stable market with Chinese production steady and modest demand growth.

Rotterdam concentrate averaged $225/mtu WO3 (2021), $275 (2022), $258 (2023) and $252 (2024) (USGS, Argus)

4. 2025

China imposed export controls on selected tungsten items in February 2025, after the US raised tariffs on Chinese tungsten products to 50%; Chinese imports and consumption rose (USGS).

65% concentrate rose from $266 to $551/mtu and APT from $331 to $675/mtu during 2025; concentrate averaged $380/mtu (USGS). APT averaged $518/mtu and ended the year at $900 (Masan)

5. 2026

Western buyers scrambled for non-Chinese supply as new mines such as Sangdong were commissioned.

APT above $2,200/mtu, a record, in March 2026 (Almonty)

#### What drives the cycle

- **Chinese export and production policy.** China mines about 80% of tungsten and controls export licences and mining quotas.
- **Manufacturing and machining activity.** Cutting tools follow car, aerospace and machine-tool output.
- **Mining, oil and gas, and tunnelling.** Drill bits and picks wear out in use.
- **Defence spending.** Penetrators, armour and electronics use tungsten; the US had potential stockpile acquisitions of 2,041 t in FY2025 (USGS).
- **Non-Chinese mine pipeline.** Sangdong, Boguty and North American projects funded under the US Defense Production Act.

#### Metrics to track

| Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it |
|---|---|---|
| **APT price, Rotterdam and China** | Benchmark for contracts | Fastmarkets; Argus Tungsten Analytics |
| **China tungsten exports by product** | Shows effect of export controls | China Customs (GACC) monthly data |
| **Chinese mining quota announcements** | Supply ceiling | China Ministry of Natural Resources |
| **Masan and Almonty quarterly output** | Main non-Chinese supply | Company reports |
| **Machine-tool orders** | Leading indicator of carbide demand | VDW (Germany) and JMTBA (Japan) monthly releases |

## Other sections

- [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/tungsten/index.md)
- [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/tungsten/overview/index.md)
- [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/tungsten/correlation/index.md)
- [Extraction](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/tungsten/extraction/index.md)
- [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/tungsten/production/index.md)
- [Stocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/tungsten/stocks/index.md)
- [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/tungsten/trading/index.md)
- [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/tungsten/movement/index.md)
- [Criticality](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/tungsten/criticality/index.md)
- [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/tungsten/characteristics/index.md)
- [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/tungsten/emissions/index.md)
- [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/tungsten/links/index.md)