# Wheat: Correlation Prices it moves with, and why Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/wheat/correlation/ Wheat is priced on Chicago and Kansas futures; this series is US hard red winter. Harvests in Russia, the EU, the United States, Canada and Australia, export curbs, the dollar and feed demand set prices. India grows much wheat under state procurement. Market price **World Bank Pink Sheet: Wheat, US HRW** $/mt · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 #### What its price moves with Selected link ##### Wheat and Maize Monthly changes 0.54 moderate correlation 12-month changes 0.74 strong correlation Last 5 years 0.58 monthly changes Lead or lag none No clear lead or lag Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Wheat ≈ 3.18 × (Maize)^0.83 R² 0.69 On this fit, a 10% higher maize price goes with a 8.2% higher wheat price over the long run. Units: $/mt and $/mt. Chart: Wheat and Maize prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size. Chart: Wheat price against Maize price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic. Commodity [Mz Maize](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/maize/)Substitute 0.54 Wheat and maize compete in animal feed and share the same world grain and dollar drivers. Monthly moves correlate at 0.54 and yearly moves at 0.74, with 0.58 in the last five years, wheat's strongest monthly link here. moderate co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts Commodity [Bly Barley](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/barley/)Substitute 0.40 Barley and wheat grow in the same regions and both serve animal feed, so a poor harvest of one lifts the other. Monthly moves correlate at 0.40 and yearly moves at 0.67, though the barley series ends in 2020. moderate co-movement month to month · 176 months Show charts Commodity [Soy Soybeans](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/soybeans/)Land competition 0.46 Wheat competes with soybeans for land in the United States, Canada and South America, and both respond to the same macro forces. Monthly moves correlate at 0.46 and yearly moves at 0.78. moderate co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts Commodity [Ri Rice](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rice/)Food staple 0.00 Wheat and rice are the two main food grains, and India's procurement and export choices affect both. Yet monthly moves show almost no link and yearly moves only 0.20, because rice is traded thinly in Asia under heavy government management. little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts Chemical [Ur Urea](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/urea/)Input cost −0.01 Nitrogen fertiliser is a major wheat growing cost. Monthly moves show no link, at -0.01, but yearly moves correlate at 0.55, as fertiliser and grain prices both rise in commodity booms and fertiliser costs affect planting over seasons. little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts Energy [Agr Energy in farming](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_agri_energy/)Energy cost 0.15 Diesel for farm machinery and transport is a direct cost, and energy prices set fertiliser costs too. The diesel proxy shares monthly moves at 0.15, yearly moves at 0.70 and 0.37 in the last five years with wheat. little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts How to read these numbers **Correlation of monthly changes** (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak. **12-month changes** compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs. **Price function** is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)^β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation. **Lead or lag** checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months. Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link. Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site. ## Other sections - [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/wheat/index.md) - [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/wheat/overview/index.md) - [Extraction](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/wheat/extraction/index.md) - [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/wheat/production/index.md) - [Stocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/wheat/stocks/index.md) - [Cycles](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/wheat/cycles/index.md) - [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/wheat/trading/index.md) - [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/wheat/movement/index.md) - [Criticality](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/wheat/criticality/index.md) - [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/wheat/characteristics/index.md) - [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/wheat/emissions/index.md) - [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/wheat/links/index.md)