# Thermochemical biomass conversion: Correlation

Prices it moves with, and why

Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_bio_thermochem/correlation/

Thermochemical biomass conversion uses gasification, pyrolysis and torrefaction to turn biomass into syngas, bio-oil or solid fuel. Costs are feedstock, reactor capital and gas clean-up; most plants are small, and value depends on fuel prices and subsidies.
 No public price Thermochemical biomass conversion has no public monthly price series: Few plants; products sold on contracts; no public price.

#### What its price moves with

 Energy [Bm Biomass](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_biomass/)Feedstock

Wood, residues and waste are the feedstock, and their collection and transport cost is a large part of output cost. Low-density biomass is costly to move, which keeps plants small.
 Not enough overlapping price history to measure.

 Energy [Oil Crude oil](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/crude_oil/)Rival product

Bio-oil and synthetic fuels from biomass compete with oil-based fuels. High oil prices make these routes more attractive, while cheap oil has closed many plants. Policy support for low-carbon fuels decides most projects.
 Not enough overlapping price history to measure.

 Chemical [MeOH Methanol](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/methanol/)Product

Gasified biomass makes syngas that can be turned into methanol. Fossil methanol from gas and coal sets the price that bio-methanol must match. Ships running on methanol are a new market.
 Not enough overlapping price history to measure.

 Chemical [HVO Renewable diesel and SAF](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/hvo_saf/)Product

Biomass gasification with Fischer-Tropsch synthesis makes renewable diesel and jet fuel. Their price, set by mandates for sustainable aviation fuel, decides whether these plants pay. Aviation mandates now support demand.
 Not enough overlapping price history to measure.

 Chemical [Cat Chemical process catalysts](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/process_catalysts/)Process input

Converting syngas into fuels or methanol needs catalysts, often based on cobalt, iron or copper. Catalyst cost and life affect plant economics. Tar in biomass syngas poisons catalysts, so gas clean-up is a major cost.
 No public price for chemical process catalysts, so the link is explained in words only.

How to read these numbers

**Correlation of monthly changes** (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.

**12-month changes** compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.

**Price function** is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)^β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.

**Lead or lag** checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.

Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.

Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.

## Other sections

- [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_bio_thermochem/index.md)
- [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_bio_thermochem/overview/index.md)
- [Efficiency](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_bio_thermochem/efficiency/index.md)
- [Techniques](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_bio_thermochem/techniques/index.md)
- [Resources and labour](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_bio_thermochem/resources/index.md)
- [Impact on the biosphere](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_bio_thermochem/biosphere/index.md)
- [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_bio_thermochem/links/index.md)