# Coal transport: Geopolitics and regulation A shrinking trade given a jolt by the 2026 gas shock Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_coal_transport/geopolitics/ What this tab covers Political and regulatory forces that help (tailwinds) or hinder (headwinds) this way of moving energy, dated. Seaborne coal is in slow decline as China and Indonesia change policy, but the 2026 Middle East war gave it a temporary lift: Japan and Korea burned more coal in place of expensive gas. Trade routes keep shifting from Atlantic suppliers towards Asia. #### Tailwinds **Gas shock lifts coal imports** 2026 The IEA raised Japanese thermal imports to about 124 Mt and sees Korean imports up over 10% in 2026 because of the Middle East crisis.^[1](https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-mid-year-update-2026/trade) **Pacific coal freight recovered** May 2026 Panamax rates in the Pacific were lifted by the Hormuz disruption. Russian coal exports tracked by Signal Group hit a record 7.8 Mt in April 2026, 63% from Pacific ports.^[9](https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/?p=1133954) **Mongolian rail growth** 2026 Coking coal exports to China expected to rise over 50% to about 91 Mt in 2026.^[1](https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-mid-year-update-2026/trade) **Chokepoints mostly open for coal** April to October 2026 Malacca is open, with piracy down in early 2026. Panama transits rose 4.1% in fiscal 2026 with a 50-foot draught.^[17](https://www.bairdmaritime.com/shipping/as-hormuz-crisis-unfolds-all-eyes-turn-toward-the-vital-malacca-strait)^[18](https://www.ajot.com/news/panama-canal-reports-growth-in-transits-and-tonnage-in-fiscal-year-2026) **Longer coal hauls** 2024 In 2024 seaborne coal volumes rose 3.3% to the most tonnes since 1980 and tonne-miles 5.9%, as Colombian and Russian coal moved further to Asia.^[2](https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/rmt2025ch1_en.pdf) #### Headwinds **Trade contracting** 2025 World coal imports fell about 4% in 2025 to about 1.48 Bt. China's imports fell from 548 Mt to about 495 Mt, and Indonesia's exports from 557 Mt to 517 Mt.^[1](https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-mid-year-update-2026/trade) **Colombia's exports at a low** 2025 45 Mt in 2025, the lowest since 2003.^[1](https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-mid-year-update-2026/trade) **Red Sea still risky** October 2026 Suez transits were 39% below pre-Houthi levels in September 2026, so Red Sea risk persists for Atlantic-to-Asia cargoes.^[19](https://www.lloydslistintelligence.com/resources/blog/red-sea-brief-15-october-2026) **Railway profits squeezed** 2025 to 2026 Daqin Railway's 2025 net profit fell about 35% as volume slipped 0.5%.^[6](https://en.sxcoal.com/news/detail/2052267825682817026) **Dust and water opposition** 2005; 2013 to 2014 Coal dust from trains was fought over in US port proposals, and the Navajo and Hopi councils banned using Navajo Aquifer water to move coal; the slurry line closed with its only customer in 2005.^[13](https://kuow.org/post/coal-dust-trains-adds-pollution-new-research-finds)^[12](https://clui.org/ludb/site/black-mesa-coal-mine-and-pipeline) The 2025 fall and the 2026 war-driven bounce show how much coal shipping now depends on Asian policy and gas prices. #### Sources 1. [Coal Mid-Year Update 2026: Trade](https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-mid-year-update-2026/trade) IEA, 2026 2. [Review of Maritime Transport 2025, Chapter 1](https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/rmt2025ch1_en.pdf) UNCTAD, 2025 3. [Daqin Railway 2025 net profit down nearly 35%, targets 400 Mt for core line](https://en.sxcoal.com/news/detail/2052267825682817026) SXCoal, 2026 4. [Dry bulk market update: how Cape and Panamax freight markets are repricing under the new coal trade map (Signal Group)](https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/?p=1133954) Hellenic Shipping News, 2026 5. [Black Mesa Coal Mine and Pipeline, Arizona](https://clui.org/ludb/site/black-mesa-coal-mine-and-pipeline) Center for Land Use Interpretation, 2024 6. [Coal dust from trains adds to pollution, new research finds (reports BNSF testimony)](https://kuow.org/post/coal-dust-trains-adds-pollution-new-research-finds) KUOW, 2013 7. [As Hormuz crisis unfolds, all eyes turn toward the vital Malacca Strait (Reuters)](https://www.bairdmaritime.com/shipping/as-hormuz-crisis-unfolds-all-eyes-turn-toward-the-vital-malacca-strait) Baird Maritime, 2026 8. [Panama Canal reports growth in transits and tonnage in fiscal year 2026](https://www.ajot.com/news/panama-canal-reports-growth-in-transits-and-tonnage-in-fiscal-year-2026) AJOT, 2026 9. [Red Sea Brief, 15 October 2026](https://www.lloydslistintelligence.com/resources/blog/red-sea-brief-15-october-2026) Lloyd's List Intelligence, 2026 ## Other sections - [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_coal_transport/index.md) - [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_coal_transport/overview/index.md) - [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_coal_transport/correlation/index.md) - [How it works](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_coal_transport/explain/index.md) - [Efficiency and losses](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_coal_transport/efficiency/index.md) - [Technology advances](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_coal_transport/advances/index.md) - [Value chain](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_coal_transport/valuechain/index.md) - [Unit economics](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_coal_transport/economics/index.md) - [Impact on the biosphere](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_coal_transport/biosphere/index.md) - [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_coal_transport/links/index.md)