# Industrial heat pumps and vapour recompression: Impact and additionality

Turning factory flames into cleaner, falling grid emissions

Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_industrial_hp/rc-impact/

What this tab covers The impact and additionality lens: direct emission cuts, side benefits for water and air, and the risk of prolonging the life of a polluting host plant.

Heat pumps replace on-site fuel with electricity, turning Scope 1 emissions into smaller Scope 2 emissions that fall as the grid decarbonises.

#### Direct Scope 1 and Scope 2 abatement
Favourable

DOE's illustration: delivering 1 MMBtu of heat takes 1.25 MMBtu of fuel in an 80% efficient boiler, but only 0.22 MMBtu (about 65 kWh, calculated) of electricity plus 0.78 MMBtu of waste heat in a heat pump with a COP of 4.5. With gas at 0.0053 t CO2 per therm, the boiler emits about 66 kg CO2, so the heat pump wins on any grid below about 1 kg CO2 per kWh (calculated), which includes coal-heavy grids. Japan had nearly 650 MW of industrial heat pumps in 2024, about 1% of light-industry heat; the IEA puts the technical potential at about 20% of global industrial heat. In the EU, process heat below 200 C amounts to about 722 TWh of final energy (37% of process heat), while the installed stock of industrial heat pumps accounts for only about 7 TWh of final energy (2022 data), according to the European Heat Pump Association.^[1](https://www1.eere.energy.gov/manufacturing/intensiveprocesses/pdfs/waste_heat_recovery.pdf)^[11](https://www.aceee.org/sites/default/files/pdfs/ssi21/panel-3/Zahlan.pdf)^[5](https://www.iea.org/reports/heat-pump-monitor-2026/key-findings)^[18](https://ehpa.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/20250304-EHPA-Industrial-Heat-pumps-position-paper81.pdf)
 Fuel per MMBtu heat, gas boiler 1.25 MMBtu^[1](https://www1.eere.energy.gov/manufacturing/intensiveprocesses/pdfs/waste_heat_recovery.pdf) Electricity per MMBtu heat, heat pump at COP 4.5 0.22 MMBtu^[1](https://www1.eere.energy.gov/manufacturing/intensiveprocesses/pdfs/waste_heat_recovery.pdf) Break-even grid intensity about 1 kg CO2 per kWh (calculated)^[1](https://www1.eere.energy.gov/manufacturing/intensiveprocesses/pdfs/waste_heat_recovery.pdf)^[11](https://www.aceee.org/sites/default/files/pdfs/ssi21/panel-3/Zahlan.pdf) Japan industrial heat pump capacity, 2024 nearly 650 MW^[5](https://www.iea.org/reports/heat-pump-monitor-2026/key-findings)

#### Water and air synergy
Favourable

Removing on-site combustion eliminates local NOx and particulates. MVR evaporators need almost no cooling water, against about 60 m3 per tonne evaporated for a single-effect steam evaporator and 15 m3 for four effects (at a 10 K cooling water rise). Refrigerant leakage is a climate risk with older high-global-warming fluids, which newer low-GWP refrigerants address.^[7](https://www.gea.com/en/articles/thermal-separation-heating-options/index.jsp?i=chemical)^[2](https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v152y2018icp985-1010.html)
 Cooling water, single-effect evaporator about 60 m3 per t evaporated^[7](https://www.gea.com/en/articles/thermal-separation-heating-options/index.jsp?i=chemical) Cooling water, four-effect evaporator about 15 m3 per t^[7](https://www.gea.com/en/articles/thermal-separation-heating-options/index.jsp?i=chemical) Cooling water, MVR minor^[7](https://www.gea.com/en/articles/thermal-separation-heating-options/index.jsp?i=chemical)

#### Avoided lock-in
Favourable

Heat pumps are an electrification technology and fit a net-zero path, so lock-in risk is low. They do depend on a waste-heat source, but most sources (cooling water, dryer exhaust, evaporator vapour) remain after a host decarbonises. IEA scenarios see heat pumps rising from below 1% of light-industry heat in 2025 to about 8% by 2035 under stated policies and about 20% in a net-zero pathway.^[5](https://www.iea.org/reports/heat-pump-monitor-2026/key-findings)
 Light-industry heat share, 2035 stated policies about 8% (from below 1% in 2025)^[5](https://www.iea.org/reports/heat-pump-monitor-2026/key-findings) Light-industry heat share, 2035 net zero about 20%^[5](https://www.iea.org/reports/heat-pump-monitor-2026/key-findings)

#### Sources

1. [Waste Heat Recovery: Technology and Opportunities in U.S. Industry (BCS Inc. for US DOE Industrial Technologies Program)](https://www1.eere.energy.gov/manufacturing/intensiveprocesses/pdfs/waste_heat_recovery.pdf) US Department of Energy, 2008
2. [High temperature heat pumps: Market overview, state of the art, research status, refrigerants, and application potentials (Arpagaus, Bless, Uhlmann, Schiffmann, Bertsch), Energy 152, 985-1010](https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v152y2018icp985-1010.html) Elsevier (via RePEc IDEAS), 2018
3. [Heat Pump Monitor 2026: Key findings](https://www.iea.org/reports/heat-pump-monitor-2026/key-findings) IEA, 2026
4. [Heating options for thermal separation plants: MVR and TVR, specific utility consumption table (vendor data)](https://www.gea.com/en/articles/thermal-separation-heating-options/index.jsp?i=chemical) GEA Group, 2026
5. [Not Just Hot Air: Low-Cost Decarbonization through Heat Recovery (Zahlan and Talan, Cadmus), ACEEE Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Industry](https://www.aceee.org/sites/default/files/pdfs/ssi21/panel-3/Zahlan.pdf) ACEEE, 2021
6. [Industrial heat pumps position paper](https://ehpa.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/20250304-EHPA-Industrial-Heat-pumps-position-paper81.pdf) European Heat Pump Association, 2025

## Other sections

- [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_industrial_hp/index.md)
- [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_industrial_hp/overview/index.md)
- [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_industrial_hp/correlation/index.md)
- [Science and thermodynamics](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_industrial_hp/rc-sci/index.md)
- [Engineering and integration](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_industrial_hp/rc-eng/index.md)
- [Economics and contracts](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_industrial_hp/rc-econ/index.md)
- [What to track](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_industrial_hp/tracking/index.md)
- [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_industrial_hp/links/index.md)