# Next-generation lithium batteries: Impact and additionality

Long-dated bets that matter more for transport than grids

Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_li_next/sg-impact/

What this tab covers The impact and additionality lens: what it displaces on the grid, who gains and who bears the burden along the supply chain, and what happens at end of life.

For a grid-focused impact fund these are long-dated bets with little near-term effect on emissions; their main value is making electric transport lighter and safer later this decade.

#### Grid decarbonisation versus fossil displacement
Unfavourable

Near-term grid impact is negligible. If solid-state cells succeed in cars, they could make longer-range EVs cheaper to build and so cut oil use, but grid storage is expected to remain with LFP and sodium-ion. The IEA expects solid-state to stay in premium segments until the first half of the 2030s.^[1](https://iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2026/electric-vehicle-batteries)

#### Just transition and local community impact
Mixed

Development is concentrated in Japan, South Korea, China and the US (Toyota, Samsung, BYD, QuantumScape, Factorial). Lithium-sulphur, by removing cobalt and nickel, could cut the most problematic mining exposure, but it still depends on lithium supply chains.^[1](https://iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2026/electric-vehicle-batteries)

#### Circular economy and end of life
Mixed

No recycling routes exist at scale for these designs. EU battery rules apply to all chemistries, including lithium recovery of 50% by end-2027 and 80% by end-2031 and recycled-content minimums from 2031, so recyclability should be designed in from the start.^[5](https://www.iea.org/policies/16763-eu-sustainable-batteries-regulation)
 EU lithium recovery target 50% by end-2027, 80% by end-2031^[5](https://www.iea.org/policies/16763-eu-sustainable-batteries-regulation)

#### Sources

1. [Global EV Outlook 2026: Electric vehicle batteries](https://iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2026/electric-vehicle-batteries) International Energy Agency, 2026
2. [EU Sustainable Batteries Regulation (2023/1542), policy summary](https://www.iea.org/policies/16763-eu-sustainable-batteries-regulation) International Energy Agency policy database, 2023

## Other sections

- [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_li_next/index.md)
- [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_li_next/overview/index.md)
- [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_li_next/correlation/index.md)
- [Science and technology](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_li_next/sg-sci/index.md)
- [Engineering and performance](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_li_next/sg-eng/index.md)
- [Economics](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_li_next/sg-econ/index.md)
- [What to track](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_li_next/tracking/index.md)
- [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_li_next/links/index.md)