# Low-carbon hydrogen and e-fuels: Overview

Why refineries and fertiliser plants are first in line

Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/green_hydrogen_carriers/overview/

What this tab covers What the chemical is, how big its market is, what it is used for (with shares, volumes, why it wins and what could replace it), and its chain from raw material to end user. Ends with three things to remember.

Low-carbon hydrogen is made by splitting water with renewable power (green) or by reforming gas with carbon capture (blue). Because hydrogen is hard to store and ship, much of it will be turned into carriers and e-fuels: ammonia, methanol made from captured CO2, synthetic jet fuel and e-methane. Output was about 1 Mt in 2025 against almost 100 Mt of grey hydrogen, worth roughly $5 billion. Costs are two to six times fossil fuels. India has run the world's most competitive tenders, at about $4.4-4.6/kg for hydrogen and near grey parity for ammonia.
 Volume low-emissions hydrogen about 1 Mt in 2025, of almost 100 Mt total hydrogen; e-methanol tens of kt (Kassø 42 kt a year); e-SAF near zero at commercial scale Market value about $4-6 billion (2025, indicative, basis: about 1 Mt x $4-6/kg, Indian tender prices of $4.4-4.6/kg) Growth more than 4 Mt a year by 2030 from projects operating, under construction or at FID; 37 Mt a year announced, down from 49 Mt a year ago (IEA GHR 2025) IEA Global Hydrogen Review 2025 via hydrogen tile; European Energy via methanol tile (Argus 2025); JMK Research (2025)

#### Key uses

| Use | Share | Annual volume | Why this commodity | Alternatives |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| **Oil refining (replacing grey hydrogen in hydrotreaters)** | 43% | about 43 Mt addressablebasis | Refineries already use and pipe hydrogen, so green hydrogen can drop in without new end-use equipment. India's first green hydrogen auctions were all for refineries (IOCL Panipat 10 kt a year at Rs 397/kg). IEA via hydrogen tile; JMK Research (May 2025) | Blue hydrogen Lower refinery throughput as fuel demand falls |
| **Ammonia for fertiliser and chemicals (green or blue ammonia)** | 33% | about 34 Mt H2 addressablebasis | Ammonia needs 0.178 t of hydrogen per tonne, so replacing grey hydrogen decarbonises fertiliser directly. India's SECI auction contracted 724 kt a year of green ammonia in 2025 (about 129 kt of hydrogen). ammonia tile (SECI via ESMAP 2025); stoichiometry | Blue ammonia Nitrification inhibitors and better fertiliser efficiency |
| **Methanol and e-methanol (chemicals and shipping fuel)** | 16% | about 16 Mt H2 addressablebasis | Methanol can be made from captured CO2 and green hydrogen and burned in dual-fuel ship engines. Maersk operates 13 methanol-capable ships (methanol tile). IEA via hydrogen tile; methanol tile | Bio-methanol from biomass or biogas LNG and ammonia as ship fuels |
| **Direct reduced iron (green steel)** | 5% | about 5 Mt H2 addressable todaybasis | Hydrogen can reduce iron ore to iron without coke, emitting water instead of CO2. About 50-55 kg of hydrogen is needed per tonne of steel (indicative). IEA via hydrogen tile; kg/t indicative | Gas DRI with CCS Scrap EAF |
| **Synthetic fuels for aviation and shipping (e-SAF, e-methanol, e-ammonia) and other new uses** | 1% | under 1 Mt H2basis | Long-haul aviation and deep-sea shipping cannot easily electrify, so they need liquid fuels with low lifecycle emissions. E-SAF is the only route that scales without biomass limits. IEA via hydrogen tile; PwC Strategy& (Jul 2026) | Bio-SAF (HEFA) and HVO Biomethanol Efficiency and demand reduction |

 Shares are of almost 100 Mt of total hydrogen demand in 2024 (IEA via hydrogen tile) and show where low-carbon hydrogen is addressable; they sum to 98%, the rest being small industrial uses.

#### From raw material to user

1. **Renewable power or gas with CCS** Green hydrogen needs about 50-55 MWh per tonne; blue hydrogen captures about 9-10 kg of CO2 per kg H2 at the reformer (hydrogen tile).
2. **Electrolysis or reforming** About 2 GW of electrolysers were installed worldwide by 2024; China makes nearly 60% of electrolysers (IEA via hydrogen tile).
3. **Conversion to a carrier** Hydrogen is turned into ammonia (0.178 t H2 per t), methanol (0.19 t H2 and 1.37 t CO2 per t) or Fischer-Tropsch and methanol-to-jet fuels (stoichiometry).
4. **Transport** Ammonia and methanol ship in existing tankers; pure hydrogen moves mainly by pipeline or as compressed gas over short distances.
5. **Use** Refineries, fertiliser plants, steel DRI, ship engines and aircraft; RFNBO rules in the EU set what counts as renewable.

#### Made from (commodity table)
[Gas Natural gas](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/natural_gas/)[H₂O Water](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/water/)

#### Three things to know

- Low-emissions hydrogen was about 1 Mt in 2025, about 1% of the almost 100 Mt market, and projects operating or at FID reach only just over 4 Mt a year by 2030 (IEA GHR 2025).
- India's 2025 SECI auction bought 724 kt a year of green ammonia at Rs 49.75-64.74/kg, about 10-45% above grey ammonia at 2025 prices (SECI via ESMAP).
- No large European e-SAF plant had reached final investment decision by mid-2026, although EU and UK mandates need about 660 kt by 2030 (PwC Strategy&, Jul 2026).

#### Read the tabs
[Production route](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/green_hydrogen_carriers/routes/)[Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/green_hydrogen_carriers/production/)[Feedstocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/green_hydrogen_carriers/feedstocks/)[Cycles](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/green_hydrogen_carriers/cycles/)[Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/green_hydrogen_carriers/trading/)[Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/green_hydrogen_carriers/movement/)[Regulation](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/green_hydrogen_carriers/regulation/)[Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/green_hydrogen_carriers/characteristics/)[Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/green_hydrogen_carriers/emissions/)

## Other sections

- [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/green_hydrogen_carriers/index.md)
- [Energy overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/green_hydrogen_carriers/energy/index.md)
- [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/green_hydrogen_carriers/correlation/index.md)
- [Science and limits](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/green_hydrogen_carriers/science/index.md)
- [Value chain](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/green_hydrogen_carriers/valuechain/index.md)
- [Unit economics](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/green_hydrogen_carriers/economics/index.md)
- [Engineering methods](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/green_hydrogen_carriers/methods/index.md)
- [Equipment and suppliers](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/green_hydrogen_carriers/equipment/index.md)
- [Production route](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/green_hydrogen_carriers/routes/index.md)
- [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/green_hydrogen_carriers/production/index.md)
- [Feedstocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/green_hydrogen_carriers/feedstocks/index.md)
- [Cycles](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/green_hydrogen_carriers/cycles/index.md)
- [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/green_hydrogen_carriers/trading/index.md)
- [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/green_hydrogen_carriers/movement/index.md)
- [Regulation](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/green_hydrogen_carriers/regulation/index.md)
- [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/green_hydrogen_carriers/characteristics/index.md)
- [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/green_hydrogen_carriers/emissions/index.md)
- [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/green_hydrogen_carriers/links/index.md)