# Thermal coal: Cycles The 2022 price spike that made coal a hot commodity Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/thermal_coal/cycles/ What this tab covers Price history and what drives booms and busts, including this commodity's super-cycles, the drivers behind them and the metrics to track. It charts monthly prices (World Bank) with a switch to inflation-adjusted annual prices; where there is no World Bank series it uses USGS US prices. Australian thermal coal averaged $147.1 a tonne in September 2026, up from $106.3 a year earlier but below $185.7 five years earlier. The ten-year range spans $49.0 to $430.8, the peak coming in 2022 when Europe shunned Russian coal and gas prices soared. In real 2010 dollars the annual price went from $62.1 in 2020 to $293.7 in 2022, then fell to $93.4 in 2025. Demand tracks electricity use, weather and hydropower output, and gas prices too, because utilities switch fuels. Chinese import policy and Indonesian export rules can move seaborne prices quickly. Latest (2026-09) 147 $/mt vs 1 year ago +38% vs 5 years ago -21% vs 10 years ago +102% #### Coal, Australian price Chart: Coal, Australian monthly price Chart: Coal, Australian annual real price Deflated by the World Bank manufactures unit value index (2010 = 100). Source: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026 release. #### Super-cycles in thermal coal Thermal coal follows oil and gas with a lag, because power plants switch between fuels and because oil shocks push utilities toward coal. Prices quadrupled in the 1970s as oil-fired plants converted, drifted down to about $25-40/t through the 1980s and 1990s, then rode China's import boom from 2004 to 2011. A long slump followed as China capped output growth and the West retired plants. The 2021-2022 energy crisis produced the biggest spike in history, when Europe replaced Russian gas and coal and Asian buyers competed for Australian and Indonesian cargoes. Prices are cyclical but supply responds within a year or two because mines are cheap to expand. 1. 1970-1981 Oil shocks made coal the cheaper boiler fuel; utilities converted oil-fired plants and Japan built coal import capacity. Australian coal rose from $7.8/t (1970) to $26.8 (1975) and $54.8 (1982) annual averages (World Bank). 2. 2004-2011 China flipped from net exporter to the largest importer and India's imports grew; freight costs soared. The 2008 spike matched oil's; Queensland floods in early 2011 added to tightness. Australian coal rose from $26.1/t (2003) to $127.1 (2008 average, $180.0 in July 2008), fell to $71.8 in 2009 and reached $121.4 in 2011 (World Bank). 3. 2012-2016 Chinese demand plateaued, Indonesian supply surged and US shale gas displaced coal in American power. Prices halved until Beijing's 2016 supply-side reform capped mine working days. Australian coal fell to $58.9/t in 2015 (World Bank). 4. 2021-2022 Post-COVID power demand, Chinese mine safety curbs, Indonesia's brief export ban in January 2022, then the EU's ban on Russian coal from August 2022 and the gas crisis. Australian coal averaged $344.9/t in 2022 with a record $430.8 monthly average in September 2022 (World Bank). 5. 2026 The Iran war and Qatar LNG outage raised gas prices in Asia and Europe, pushing utilities back to coal as a substitute. Australian coal rose from $118.4/t (February 2026) to $147.1 (September 2026) (World Bank). #### What drives the cycle - **China's domestic output policy.** China mines half the world's coal; small changes in its safety rules, output caps or import quotas swing the seaborne market. - **India's power demand.** India is the main source of coal demand growth; hot summers and weak hydro raise coal burn and imports. - **Gas-to-coal switching.** When LNG is dear, Asian and European utilities burn more coal, so gas shocks become coal shocks. - **Weather and supply disruptions.** Floods in Queensland, rain in Kalimantan and South African rail failures cut exports at short notice. - **Climate policy and financing.** Bank, insurer and investor exits raise the cost of new mines, limiting supply response even when prices are high. #### Metrics to track | Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it | |---|---|---| | **China coal production and imports** | Largest swing factor | National Bureau of Statistics and General Administration of Customs (monthly) | | **China port inventories (Qinhuangdao and others)** | Signals Chinese import appetite | China Coal Transport and Distribution Association (CCTD) data | | **India coal stocks at power plants (days of burn)** | Low stocks force imports | Central Electricity Authority daily coal stock report | | **India coal production and despatch** | Domestic supply versus demand | Ministry of Coal monthly data; Coal India monthly releases | | **Newcastle and API2 forward curves** | Market expectations of future tightness | ICE Futures Europe | | **Asian LNG price (JKM) vs coal** | Fuel-switching threshold for utilities | S&P Global Platts; ICE | | **Seaborne coal export volumes by origin** | Tracks supply disruptions | Kpler ship tracking; Australia Resources and Energy Quarterly | ## Other sections - [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/thermal_coal/index.md) - [Energy overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/thermal_coal/energy/index.md) - [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/thermal_coal/correlation/index.md) - [How energy resides](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/thermal_coal/resides/index.md) - [Abundance](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/thermal_coal/abundance/index.md) - [Fluctuation in time](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/thermal_coal/time/index.md) - [Across the Earth](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/thermal_coal/geography/index.md) - [Impact on nature](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/thermal_coal/nature/index.md) - [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/thermal_coal/overview/index.md) - [Extraction](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/thermal_coal/extraction/index.md) - [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/thermal_coal/production/index.md) - [Stocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/thermal_coal/stocks/index.md) - [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/thermal_coal/trading/index.md) - [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/thermal_coal/movement/index.md) - [Criticality](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/thermal_coal/criticality/index.md) - [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/thermal_coal/characteristics/index.md) - [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/thermal_coal/emissions/index.md) - [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/thermal_coal/links/index.md)