# Aerospace and defence: Chokepoints and risks

Civil aircraft, military platforms, weapons, satellites and launch vehicle makers

Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/industries/aerospace_defence/risks/

#### Chokepoints and risks

- Engine and casting supply is the bottleneck: the backlog tops 17,000 aircraft, nearly 12 years of production, and IATA does not expect supply to normalise before 2031-2034^[5](https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2025-releases/2025-12-09-02/)^,^[6](https://leehamnews.com/2026/09/09/ge-aerospace-moves-to-secure-critical-engine-casting-capacity/).
- China dominates rare earths, gallium and germanium used in radars, magnets and optics, and its export restrictions have already raised costs for firms such as Thales and Rheinmetall^[2](https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2025/sipri-top-100-arms-producers-see-combined-revenues-surge-states-rush-modernize-and-expand-arsenals).
- Airbus and Safran had met half their pre-2022 titanium needs from Russia and have had to find new suppliers, and munitions capacity remains short of demand^[2](https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2025/sipri-top-100-arms-producers-see-combined-revenues-surge-states-rush-modernize-and-expand-arsenals).
- Arms revenue is concentrated in US firms (about 49% of the top 100, calculated) and export controls limit technology transfer^[2](https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2025/sipri-top-100-arms-producers-see-combined-revenues-surge-states-rush-modernize-and-expand-arsenals).
- Defence work depends on government budgets and politics, which can delay programmes for years.

## Other sections

- [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/industries/aerospace_defence/index.md)
- [Where ₹100 goes](https://www.materialinsights.org/industries/aerospace_defence/cost-mix/index.md)
- [Price links with suppliers](https://www.materialinsights.org/industries/aerospace_defence/price-links/index.md)
- [Example story](https://www.materialinsights.org/industries/aerospace_defence/story/index.md)
- [Linked industries](https://www.materialinsights.org/industries/aerospace_defence/linked-industries/index.md)
- [Value chain](https://www.materialinsights.org/industries/aerospace_defence/value-chain/index.md)
- [Materials drawn on](https://www.materialinsights.org/industries/aerospace_defence/materials/index.md)
- [Sources](https://www.materialinsights.org/industries/aerospace_defence/sources/index.md)