# Criticality and geopolitics: Key terms, quiz and sources Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/learn/commodities/criticality-and-geopolitics/review/ [Understanding Commodities](https://www.materialinsights.org/learn/commodities/) / [Module 8: Criticality and geopolitics](https://www.materialinsights.org/learn/commodities/criticality-and-geopolitics/) Wrap-up ## Criticality and geopolitics: review ### Key terms **Critical raw material** : A material at risk of supply disruption whose loss would seriously hurt the evaluator; in the EU, one with supply risk of at least 1.0 and economic importance of at least 2.8. **Scarcity** : A long-run rise in the real cost of obtaining a material as resources deplete, distinct from the risk of disruption. **Supply risk (EU)** : A governance-weighted Herfindahl index of supplying countries, blended across world and EU sourcing and reduced for recycling and substitution. **Economic importance (EU)** : The value added of the manufacturing sectors that use a material, scaled against the largest sector and adjusted for substitutes. **Import reliance** : Net imports as a share of domestic production plus net imports; in the EU method it sets the weight on world versus EU supply. **End-of-life recycling input rate** : The share of a material's supply that comes from recycled old scrap, treated by the EU as riskless. **Substitution index** : An EU multiplier below 1 that reflects proven, readily available substitutes in current applications. **Bottleneck stage** : The stage of the value chain, extraction or processing, with the higher supply risk, which the EU uses in its score. **Strategic raw material** : An EU category for materials vital to green, digital, defence and aerospace technologies, added to the critical list even if they miss its thresholds. **Herfindahl-Hirschman index (HHI)** : The sum of squared market shares, from near 0 to 10,000 for a monopoly; 10,000 divided by the HHI gives the equivalent number of equal producers. **Companionality** : The share of a metal's primary production obtained as a by-product of a host metal. **By-product constraint** : The ceiling on by-product supply set by the amount contained in the host ore that is mined, which makes supply inelastic near the ceiling. **Vulnerability to supply restriction** : Graedel's axis for how badly users would be hurt by a cut, driven by importance, substitute performance and import reliance. **Export licensing** : A requirement that each export shipment be approved, letting a government control flows by buyer and end use. **Equal suffering** : The rule oil companies used in 1973-74 to share the embargo shortfall in proportion among consuming countries. **Emergency oil stocks** : IEA members' obligation to hold oil equal to at least 90 days of the previous year's net imports, released collectively in crises. **Food export restriction** : A ban, quota or tax on food exports imposed to protect domestic supply, which tends to amplify world price spikes. ### Try it in the table - Open [Gallium](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/gallium/) and then Aluminum. Gallium's HHI is 9,739 with China at 98.7%, while bauxite mining is led by Guinea and Australia. Use the gallium extraction lens to explain why gallium follows alumina refining, not bauxite mining, and what that means for restarting supply outside China. - Open [Cobalt](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/cobalt/). Recompute the HHI from the top producer shares and compare with the 5,706 shown. Then take the EU supply risk of 2.8 and its 22% recycling input rate: what would the score be with no recycling at all? - Open [Lithium](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/lithium/). Compare mine shares (Australia, China, Chile) with the trade panel, where China takes most lithium carbonate imports and supplies most lithium hydroxide exports. Which stage is the bottleneck, and which country holds it? - Open [Antimony](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/antimony/) and [Germanium](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/germanium/). In the USGS sections, find what happened to prices and US imports after China's 2024 restrictions, and decide whether the EU's 2023 supply risk scores anticipated it. - Open [Wheat](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/wheat/), [Rice](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rice/) and [Soybeans](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/soybeans/). Compare each production HHI with the export shares in the trade panel, then find China's share of world ending stocks in the WASDE data on the wheat tile. Which crop is most exposed to a single exporter's ban? - Open [Potash](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/potash/) and Phosphate and compare the three list flags. Explain why the EU scores potash's supply risk at 0.7 while the US and India list it as critical. ### Final quiz Which statement best separates criticality from scarcity? Gallium has resources of over 1 million tonnes against 900 tonnes of annual output, yet is critical because one country controls supply. In the EU's 2023 method, which combination makes a material critical? Both thresholds must be met, rounded to one decimal. Copper and nickel are exceptions, listed as strategic raw materials. Why did gallium's EU supply risk rise from 1.3 in 2020 to 3.9 in 2023? The study attributes the jump to higher global concentration in China and the end of German primary production in 2016. Rare earths are mined about 68% in China but processed 85-100% there. What does the EU method do with such a case? Since 2020 the EU assesses both stages where possible and uses the higher supply risk. Indium output rose 1,675% between 1975 and 2012 while zinc output rose 231%. How was this possible for a by-product of zinc? Higher recovery rates raised the by-product ceiling. Without that, indium supply would have been capped by zinc mining. During the 1973-74 oil embargo, how did the oil companies share the shortfall? With no government scheme in place, companies prorated cuts. Adjusted losses were 17% for Japan, 18% for the US and 16% for Western Europe. The IEA came later. Which sequence of Chinese actions is consistent with the USGS record? Controls escalated from 2023 to 2025. After an agreement with the US, in November 2025 China suspended the October controls for a year and suspended the US-specific ban on gallium, germanium and antimony until 27 November 2026; the April controls stayed. Why does China's grain stockholding matter for food security elsewhere? Outside China, wheat stocks cover only 23% of a year's use in 2026/27, so importers' real buffer is far smaller than the world total suggests. ### Sources for this module - Radetzki, M. & Wårell, L. (2021). A Handbook of Primary Commodities in the Global Economy, 3rd ed. Cambridge University Press. · pdf pp. 69-72, 196-215 - Tilton, J. E. & Guzmán, J. I. (2016). Mineral Economics and Policy. RFF Press / Routledge. · pdf pp. 75-77, 177-183, 189-192 - European Commission (2023). Study on the Critical Raw Materials for the EU 2023: Final Report. [web ↗](https://single-market-economy.ec.europa.eu/sectors/raw-materials/areas-specific-interest/critical-raw-materials_en) · pdf pp. 5-11, 19-24, 27-28, 31, 34, 36-44, 47-52, 55, 65, 67-70, 85, 119, 121-122 - U.S. Geological Survey (2026). Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: front matter (Significant Events, Trends, and Issues; U.S. Critical Minerals Update) and chapters on Antimony, Cobalt, Gallium, Germanium, Graphite (Natural) and Rare Earths. [web ↗](https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/mcs2026) · pdf pp. 12-13, 20-21, 28-31, 34, 46-47, 74-75, 86-87, 92-93, 96-97, 156-157 - Hayes, S. M. & McCullough, E. A. (2018). Critical minerals: A review of elemental trends in comprehensive criticality studies. Resources Policy 59, 192-199. [web ↗](https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2018.06.015) · pdf pp. 1-7 - Graedel, T. E., Harper, E. M., Nassar, N. T., Nuss, P. & Reck, B. K. (2015). Criticality of metals and metalloids. PNAS 112(14), 4257-4262. [web ↗](https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1400180) · pdf pp. 1-6 - Nassar, N. T., Graedel, T. E. & Harper, E. M. (2015). By-product metals are technologically essential but have problematic supply. Science Advances 1, e1400180. [web ↗](https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1400180) · pdf pp. 1-7 - Pitron, G. (2020). The Rare Metals War: The Dark Side of Clean Energy and Digital Technologies. Scribe. · pdf pp. 19, 25-30, 45-46, 63-64, 70-82, 87-93 - Scheyder, E. (2024). The War Below: Lithium, Copper, and the Global Battle to Power Our Lives. Atria. · pdf pp. 15-29, 104-112, 229-232, 303 - Conway, E. (2023). Material World: A Substantial Story of Our Past and Future. W. H. Allen. · pdf pp. 139-140, 265-266, 311-320 - Humphreys, D. (2015). The Remaking of the Mining Industry. Palgrave Macmillan. · pdf pp. 184, 205-214 - Yergin, D. (1991). The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power. Simon & Schuster. · pdf pp. 254-256, 1049-1051, 1061-1091 - Morgan, D. (1979). Merchants of Grain. Viking. · pdf pp. 230-232, 311-312, 363-365, 374-375 - Blas, J. & Farchy, J. (2021). The World for Sale: Money, Power and the Traders Who Barter the Earth's Resources. Random House Business. · pdf pp. 230-238 - USDA (2026). World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WASDE-676, October 2026. [web ↗](https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde) · pp. 18-25 (world wheat, corn and rice tables) - World Mining Data 2026 (Austrian Federal Ministry of Finance), FAOSTAT and UN Comtrade 2024, as shown on the tiles for gallium, rare earths, cobalt, graphite, lithium, nickel, copper, potash, wheat, rice, palm oil and soybeans. [web ↗](https://www.world-mining-data.info/) · production shares and HHI 2024; trade shares 2024 - Ministry of Mines, Government of India (2023). Critical Minerals for India. · list of 30 minerals, as flagged on the tiles - [USGS (2025). Methodology and technical input for the 2025 U.S. List of Critical Minerals, Open-File Report 2025-1047.](https://www.usgs.gov/publications/methodology-and-technical-input-2025-us-list-critical-minerals-assessing-potential) · web - European Parliament (2024). Legislative Train: European Critical Raw Materials Act (Regulation (EU) 2024/1252). [web ↗](https://single-market-economy.ec.europa.eu/sectors/raw-materials/areas-specific-interest/critical-raw-materials_en) · web - [Press Information Bureau, Government of India (2025). Cabinet approves National Critical Mineral Mission, 29 January 2025.](https://mines.gov.in/admin/storage/ckeditor/Press_Release_Press_Information_Bureau7_1740396701.pdf) · web - [Reuters (2023-2025). Reports on China's export controls: graphite (20 Oct 2023), antimony (15 Aug 2024), rare earths (9 May and 7 Nov 2025), gallium, germanium and antimony (10 Nov 2025).](https://www.miningweekly.com/article/china-worlds-top-graphite-producer-to-curb-exports-of-key-battery-material-2023-10-20; https://www.kitco.com/news/off-the-wire/2024-08-15/china-limit-antimony-exports-latest-critical-mineral-curbs; https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/article/china-announces-one-year-suspension-of-expanded-rare-earth-export-controls/; https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/china-halts-ban-on-gallium-germanium-antimony-exports-to-us-but-controls-remain-2025-11-10) · web - [USDA Economic Research Service (2008). What's behind the surge in global rice prices? Amber Waves, September 2008.](https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2008/september/what-s-behind-the-surge-in-global-rice-prices/) · web - [Reuters and Bloomberg (2022). Reports on India's wheat export ban (14 May 2022) and Indonesia's palm oil export ban (28 April to 23 May 2022).](https://www.malaymail.com/news/money/2022/05/14/india-prohibits-wheat-exports-with-immediate-effect/2058818; https://www.ajot.com/news/indonesia-lifts-palm-oil-export-ban-in-relief-to-global-market) · web ## Other sections - [Module overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/learn/commodities/criticality-and-geopolitics/index.md) - [What criticality means, and why it is not scarcity](https://www.materialinsights.org/learn/commodities/criticality-and-geopolitics/p1/index.md) - [How the lists are built: EU, US, India and Graedel](https://www.materialinsights.org/learn/commodities/criticality-and-geopolitics/p2/index.md) - [Concentration and companionality: the anatomy of supply risk](https://www.materialinsights.org/learn/commodities/criticality-and-geopolitics/p3/index.md) - [Weaponised supply and the policy response](https://www.materialinsights.org/learn/commodities/criticality-and-geopolitics/p4/index.md) - [Transition minerals, their costs, and food security](https://www.materialinsights.org/learn/commodities/criticality-and-geopolitics/p5/index.md)