Material Insights · Understanding the Material World

Cobalt and Copper

About three quarters of cobalt is mined as a by-product of copper, mostly in DR Congo, so cobalt supply follows copper investment; Congo's 2025 export ban and quotas showed that cobalt can be held back while copper keeps flowing.

Cobalt (commodity) and Copper (commodity): 3 relationships.

How they are linked

1. By-product of copper

Joint production · Asymmetric · Copper mining → cobalt

Cobalt occurs with copper in Central African ores, and mines built for copper recover cobalt as a secondary product.

  • about 78% share of by-product cobalt that comes from copper deposits (nickel 22%)
  • about 99% share of cobalt mined as a by-product of copper or nickel

Combining the two figures, about three quarters of all cobalt comes from copper ores. Copper sets the pace of investment, so cobalt output can rise even when cobalt prices are low; Congo cited market oversupply and low prices when it banned exports in 2025. USGS projected a record COMEX copper average of about $4.80 a pound for 2025, which kept the incentive to mine copper-cobalt ore strong.

Sources: USGS; International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD); Cobalt Institute

2. DR Congo for both

Geography and ownership · Strong · Congo leads cobalt and is second in copper

The Central African Copperbelt holds copper-cobalt ores, so Congo is the top cobalt producer and the second largest copper miner.

  • about 73% Congo's share of world cobalt mine output, 2025
  • 3.2 Mt Congo's copper mine output, 2025, second to Chile (5.3 Mt)
  • about 80% China's share of refined cobalt output, 2023

Chinese companies such as CMOC are among the largest cobalt producers, and most cobalt is refined in China, so the chain runs from Congo's copper-cobalt mines to Chinese refineries.

Sources: USGS; USGS; International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD)

3. Congo's cobalt export controls

Policy · Strong · Congo's cobalt rules → copper-cobalt mines

Congo used its dominant share to cut cobalt exports in 2025 to lift low prices, which separates cobalt sales from the copper output of the same mines.

  • February 2025 temporary ban on cobalt exports
  • 96,600 t a year export quota cap for 2026 and 2027, including 9,600 t for strategic reserves
  • $15/lb average LME cobalt price, 2025, against $11.84 in 2024

The ban was replaced in October 2025 with quotas of 18,125 t of contained cobalt for the rest of 2025. Congo's copper output rose from about 2.99 Mt in 2024 to 3.2 Mt in 2025, so producers held back cobalt while still selling copper.

Sources: USGS; USGS

For investors

Key learnings

  1. Cobalt supply is driven by copper mine economics, so copper expansions can flood the cobalt market regardless of cobalt prices.
  2. Congo's 2025 ban and quotas show policy can now break that link by holding back cobalt while copper is sold.
  3. Both metals carry Congo country risk, and cobalt adds dependence on Chinese refining, about 80% of world refined output in 2023.

What to track

  • Congo cobalt export quota allocations and use: Effective cobalt supply and price support (Quarterly · Congo ARECOMS announcements, company reports)
  • Congo copper output: By-product cobalt potential (Quarterly · company reports, Congo mines ministry)
  • LME cobalt and copper prices: Divergence shows policy, not geology, setting cobalt supply (Daily · LME)

For policymakers

Key learnings

  1. Cobalt security depends on copper mining decisions in Congo, not on cobalt projects alone.
  2. Producer country quotas can raise cobalt costs for battery makers quickly, so buyers need diverse sources.
  3. Cobalt-free LFP batteries reduce exposure, and USGS notes that iron-phosphate chemistries held a significant market share in China.

What to track

  • Cobalt import sources for battery and alloy makers: Dependence on Congo-sourced and China-refined material (Yearly · Ministry of Commerce trade data)
  • Share of LFP in new battery capacity: Reduction of cobalt exposure (Yearly · industry reports)

Sources

  1. Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Cobalt, USGS (2026)
  2. Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Copper, USGS (2026)
  3. Commodity profile: Cobalt, International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) (2026)
  4. Cobalt factsheet, July 2025, Cobalt Institute (2025)