Material Insights · Understanding the Material World

Cobalt and Vehicles, ships, rail, aircraft

Electric vehicle batteries are now the largest use of cobalt, about 43% of demand in 2024, but makers have cut cobalt per kWh through LFP and high-nickel cathodes, so cobalt demand depends on chemistry mix as much as on EV sales, while Congo's export quotas set supply.

Cobalt (commodity) and Vehicles, ships, rail, aircraft (industry): 4 relationships.

How they are linked

1. Industry input

Physical flow · Strong · Cobalt to vehicle batteries

Cobalt is part of nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) cathodes, while China and emerging markets prefer cheaper cobalt-free chemistries; the site rates cobalt 5 of 5 on criticality for EV battery cell and materials makers.

  • 5 of 5 criticality for EV battery cell and materials makers
  • 43% EV batteries' share of world cobalt demand, 2024
  • over 200 kt world cobalt demand, 2024

Over 80% of EVs sold in China in January to November 2025 had LFP packs, so battery cobalt demand comes mainly from cell makers serving markets that still use NMC. The EV share of cobalt demand rose 3 points in 2024.

Enterprise types that depend on it:

  • EV battery cell and materials makers: NMC cathodes (criticality 5 of 5)

Sources: Material Insights; Cobalt Institute; IEA; EV Magazine

2. LFP and high-nickel thrifting

Substitution · Rising · LFP and high-nickel cathodes cut cobalt per kWh

Battery makers moved to cobalt-free lithium iron phosphate (LFP) and to nickel-rich NMC to cut cost and supply risk.

  • over 55% LFP share of EV batteries deployed worldwide, 2025
  • one third to 10% cobalt share of cathode transition metals, NMC 111 to NMC 811 (LiNi0.8Mn0.1Co0.1O2)
  • more than 10% LFP share of EV battery demand in the EU, 2025

LFP rose from nearly 50% of EV batteries in 2024 to over 55% in 2025, led by China, where USGS notes iron and phosphorus chemistries hold a large share. Because LFP has no cobalt and high-nickel cells use little, cobalt price swings now affect battery costs less than before.

Sources: IEA; USGS; Merck (Sigma-Aldrich)

3. Congo supply

Shared risk · Strong · Congo's export policy sets cobalt supply

About three quarters of mined cobalt comes from Congo (Kinshasa) and China is the leading refiner, so EV makers share one concentrated supply chain.

  • about 73% Congo's share of world mine output, 2025
  • up to 96,600 t Congo's annual export quota, 2026 and 2027
  • about double rise in cobalt prices over the past year (IEA, 2026)

Congo suspended exports on 22 February 2025 to address oversupply and low prices, then set quotas from 16 October 2025. Indonesia, with about 14% of mine output in 2025, is the main second source.

Sources: IEA; USGS; IEA Policies database; IEA Policies database

4. EV growth

Transition · Medium · More EVs lift cobalt demand even as cobalt per kWh falls

Battery volumes are growing fast, so total cobalt use in vehicles can rise even while each kWh needs less.

  • 1.2 TWh EV battery deployment, 2025
  • almost 30% growth on 2024

Battery prices fell 8% in 2025, which supports EV sales. The net effect on cobalt depends on how much of the growth uses NMC rather than LFP, which differs sharply by region.

Sources: IEA

For investors

Key learnings

  1. EVs are the largest cobalt market at 43% of demand in 2024, but LFP's rise to over 55% of EV batteries in 2025 lowers average cobalt per vehicle.
  2. Congo's export quotas, alongside a doubling of cobalt prices over the past year, make cobalt a policy-driven price.
  3. Chemistry splits by region: over 80% of EVs sold in China in 2025 used LFP, so cobalt exposure sits mainly with NMC cell makers serving other markets.

What to track

  • LFP versus NMC share of EV batteries: A higher LFP share lowers cobalt per vehicle (Monthly · industry trackers; yearly · IEA)
  • Congo export quotas and their use: Set available supply (Monthly · Congo authorities)
  • Cobalt metal and hydroxide prices: Show cost pressure on NMC cells (Daily · LME and price reporting agencies)

For policymakers

Key learnings

  1. India imports all its cobalt, so battery chemistry choice is also a resource policy choice: LFP avoids cobalt entirely.
  2. The National Critical Mineral Mission, ₹34,300 crore over seven years, and KABIL's overseas asset search target cobalt access.
  3. Recycling used NMC batteries can return cobalt and reduce import needs as India's EV fleet ages.

What to track

  • Battery chemistry in Indian EVs and new cell plants: Shows how much cobalt India's EV push will need (Yearly · Ministry of Heavy Industries)
  • Cobalt imports and overseas asset deals: Show progress on supply security (Monthly · Ministry of Commerce; as announced · KABIL)

India

India has 100% import dependence on cobalt, lithium and nickel minerals and is seeking supply through the ₹34,300 crore National Critical Mineral Mission and KABIL's overseas asset search.

Sources

  1. Vehicles, ships, rail, aircraft: materials, Material Insights (2026)
  2. Global EV Outlook 2026: electric vehicle batteries, IEA (2026)
  3. Cobalt factsheet, July 2025, Cobalt Institute (2025)
  4. Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Cobalt, USGS (2026)
  5. Lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide, NMC811 cathode active material (product 940925), Merck (Sigma-Aldrich)
  6. India approves mission to bridge critical mineral gap in energy transition, Mongabay India (2025)
  7. Temporary suspension of cobalt export from the Democratic Republic of Congo, IEA Policies database (2025)
  8. DRC ARECOMS Decision No. 004/2025: cobalt quota system, IEA Policies database (2025)
  9. Global EV Outlook 2026 webinar slides, IEA (2026)
  10. LFP tops global EV market in 2025 amid regional divergence, EV Magazine (2026)