# Copper and Nickel Copper and nickel share a price cycle and are mined together from magmatic sulphide ores such as Norilsk, but Indonesia's laterite boom has pulled nickel onto its own supply-driven path. Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/links/copper-and-nickel/ [Copper](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/copper/) (commodity) and [Nickel](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/nickel/) (commodity): 3 relationships. ## How they are linked ### 1. Price link: common driver *Cost and price · Strong · Both ways* Both are LME base metals bought by the same industrial users and funds, and both respond to the global manufacturing cycle and the dollar. - **0.59** monthly change correlation - **0.66** 12-month change correlation - **0.70** fitted elasticity The link is strong over the long run but breaks when one market has its own supply shock. In 2025 the LME nickel price averaged about 11% below 2024, extending its fall from 2022 highs as Indonesian supply grew, while COMEX copper was projected to average a record $4.80 per lb, up 14%. Sources: [Material Insights (World Bank, FRED, IMF data)](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/nickel/correlation/); [US Geological Survey](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-nickel.pdf); [US Geological Survey](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-copper.pdf) ### 2. Co-mined sulphide ores *Joint production · Medium · Both from the same ore bodies* Magmatic sulphide deposits, as at Norilsk in Russia and Sudbury in Canada, contain nickel, copper and platinum-group metals together, so one mine and smelter produces all of them. - **205,000 t and 433,000 t** Nornickel's 2024 nickel and copper output - **about 35%** of world nickel resources in magmatic sulphide deposits, against about 54% in laterites - **about 62%** Indonesia's share of 2024 world nickel mine output Nornickel made about twice as much copper as nickel in 2024. Indonesia, whose output comes mainly from laterite ores that are not mined for copper, supplied about 62% of world nickel in 2024, so the share of world nickel co-produced with copper is small and the physical tie between the two markets is weak. Sources: [US Geological Survey](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-nickel.pdf); [TASS](https://tass.com/economy/1904811) ### 3. Copper-nickel alloys *Physical flow · Weak · Nickel alloyed into copper* Adding nickel to copper gives alloys that resist seawater corrosion and fouling, used where plain copper or steel would fail. - **90-10 and 70-30** main engineering grades of copper-nickel The main uses are seawater piping, heat exchangers and condensers in thermal desalination, offshore oil and gas, power generation and commercial and naval shipping. This is a small market for nickel, most of which goes to stainless and alloy steels and nickel alloys (more than 85% of US consumption), so it does not drive prices. Sources: [US Geological Survey](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-nickel.pdf); [Nickel Institute](https://nickelinstitute.org/about-nickel/copper-nickel-alloys/applications-of-copper-nickel-alloys) ## For investors ### Key learnings 1. Copper and nickel prices usually move together, but nickel's Indonesian supply surge can override the shared cycle, as in 2025. 2. Nornickel produced about twice as much copper as nickel by tonnage in 2024 and also mines palladium, so the results of sulphide miners depend on several metal prices, not nickel alone. 3. As laterite output grows, nickel trades more on Indonesian policy and less on the base-metal cycle that drives copper. ### What to track - **LME copper and nickel prices**: A widening gap signals a supply-driven nickel market (Daily · LME) - **Indonesia nickel output and ore quotas**: Sets the marginal nickel supply that has broken the copper link (Monthly · Indonesia Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources) - **Nornickel production results**: Shows co-product copper and nickel supply from Norilsk (Quarterly · Nornickel) ## For policymakers ### Key learnings 1. India listed both copper and nickel as critical minerals in 2023 and has little mine output of either, so supply security for both depends on imports or overseas assets. 2. Sanctions or disruption at Norilsk affect copper, nickel and palladium together, so stockpile and trade planning should treat them as one risk. 3. Copper-nickel alloys go into naval and commercial ships and desalination plants, so their supply matters more than their small tonnage suggests. ### What to track - **India imports of nickel and copper concentrate**: Shows exposure to a few supplying countries (Monthly · DGCI&S, Ministry of Commerce) - **Sanctions and trade measures on Russian metals**: Signal risk to co-produced copper and nickel supply (As announced · LME, US Treasury, EU) ## India India mined only 27 kt of copper in 2024 and does not appear among nickel mine producers in the USGS table; both metals are on India's 2023 critical minerals list. ## Sources 1. [Price correlation, Material Insights](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/nickel/correlation/), Material Insights (World Bank, FRED, IMF data) 2. [Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Nickel](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-nickel.pdf), US Geological Survey (2026) 3. [Nornickel posts 2% decrease in nickel output, 3% rise in palladium production for 2024](https://tass.com/economy/1904811), TASS (2025) 4. [Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Copper](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-copper.pdf), US Geological Survey (2026) 5. [Applications of copper-nickel alloys](https://nickelinstitute.org/about-nickel/copper-nickel-alloys/applications-of-copper-nickel-alloys), Nickel Institute 6. [India releases list of 30 critical minerals crucial for economic development, national security](https://theprint.in/india/governance/india-releases-list-of-30-critical-minerals-crucial-for-economic-development-national-security/1646689), ThePrint (2023)