# DAP and MAP and Phosphate rock DAP and MAP are the main products made from phosphate rock: each tonne of DAP needs about 1.5 to 2 tonnes of rock, turned into phosphoric acid and reacted with ammonia. Rock supply is concentrated in China and Morocco, and India, the largest DAP importer, depends on imports for about 90% of its rock. Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/links/dap-and-map-and-phosphate-rock/ [DAP and MAP](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/dap_map/) (chemical) and [Phosphate rock](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/phosphate/) (commodity): 4 relationships. ## How they are linked ### 1. Feedstock *Physical flow · Strong · Phosphate rock to DAP and MAP* Rock is dissolved in sulphuric acid to make wet-process phosphoric acid, which is then reacted with ammonia to give DAP (18-46-0) or MAP, so rock supplies all the phosphorus in the product. - **1.5 to 2 t** phosphate rock per tonne of DAP - **over 95%** of US-mined rock used to make wet-process phosphoric acid, 2025 The range depends on rock grade: lower-grade rock needs more tonnes per tonne of DAP. A DAP plant that buys rock is therefore exposed to rock prices on well over a tonne of input for every tonne it sells. Sources: [USGS](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-phosphate.pdf); [Nutrien Crop Nutrition resource library](https://www.cropnutrition.com/resource-library/diammonium-phosphate); [farmdoc daily, University of Illinois](https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/08/sulfur-and-increasing-phosphate-fertilizer-prices.html) ### 2. Price link: product made *Cost and price · Medium · Both ways, DAP leads* DAP is the most traded phosphate product, so its price signals phosphate demand first; rock prices, often set in longer contracts, follow with a lag. - **0.05** monthly change correlation - **0.36** 12-month change correlation - **0.92** fitted elasticity Month to month the link is close to nil, but over a year the two move together, with DAP leading by about 6 months. An elasticity near 1 suggests that over the cycle rock prices move roughly in proportion to DAP prices. Sources: [Material Insights (World Bank, FRED, IMF data)](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/dap_map/correlation/) ### 3. China and Morocco dominate both *Geography and ownership · Strong · Same countries mine rock and export DAP* Phosphate rock reserves and mining are concentrated in a few countries, and those countries have built acid and DAP plants next to their mines, so control of rock and of DAP exports overlaps. - **about 50 of 73 Gt** Morocco's share of world phosphate rock reserves, 2025 - **110 Mt and 36 Mt** China's and Morocco's rock output, out of about 250 Mt, 2025 - **about 80%** of world DAP and MAP exports from China, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Jordan China is the largest miner but uses most of its rock at home, and since 2023 it has required export licences for some phosphate fertilisers, which has cut its DAP exports. Morocco holds about two thirds of known reserves, so over the long run it is the swing supplier of both rock and processed phosphates. Sources: [USGS](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-phosphate.pdf); [Vinachem](https://eoffice.vinachem.com.vn/articles/market-and-product-vnc/global-overview-of-diammonium-phosphate-dap-market-production-exports-and-geopolitical-dynamics.html) ### 4. India's import dependence *Shared risk · High in India · Imported rock, acid and DAP to India* India has little phosphate rock of its own, so it imports rock, phosphoric acid or finished DAP, and is exposed to the same few suppliers at each stage. - **90%** India's import dependence for rock phosphate, 2021 - **49.72 lakh tonnes** DAP imported by India in 2024-25 - **28%** India's share of world DAP imports (2026 report) India mined about 1.5 Mt of rock in 2025 and holds reserves of about 31 Mt, small against its needs. Domestic DAP plants run largely on imported rock and acid, so the choice between importing rock, acid or DAP is mostly about where the conversion margin is earned. Sources: [USGS](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-phosphate.pdf); [Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers, PIB](https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1730947); [Indian Chemical News](https://www.indianchemicalnews.com/fertilizer/india-imported-4972-lmt-of-dap-in-24-25-27103); [Vinachem](https://eoffice.vinachem.com.vn/articles/market-and-product-vnc/global-overview-of-diammonium-phosphate-dap-market-production-exports-and-geopolitical-dynamics.html) ## For investors ### Key learnings 1. Rock is the core input but trades in long contracts, so DAP prices react first and rock prices follow over months. 2. Integrated producers that own rock, acid and DAP plants, such as the large Moroccan and Saudi producers, capture the full chain margin; non-integrated converters are squeezed when rock or acid prices rise faster than DAP. 3. Chinese export licensing has become a key swing factor for traded DAP supply since 2023. ### What to track - **DAP price, Morocco or Saudi FOB and India CFR**: The clearest real-time signal of phosphate demand and supply tightness (Monthly · World Bank Pink Sheet, weekly trade press) - **Phosphate rock price, Morocco**: Shows whether rock owners are passing higher DAP prices back up the chain (Monthly · World Bank Pink Sheet) - **China phosphate fertiliser export quotas and inspections**: Tighter quotas reduce traded DAP and lift prices (As announced · Chinese customs, trade press) ## For policymakers ### Key learnings 1. With about 90% of rock imported, India's phosphate security depends on a few foreign suppliers, mainly in Morocco, the Middle East and China. 2. Long-term offtake deals and stakes in overseas rock and acid projects reduce exposure to spot DAP prices and export curbs. 3. Domestic rock is small, so building more DAP plants in India shifts dependence from DAP imports to rock and acid imports rather than removing it. ### What to track - **Imports of DAP, phosphoric acid and rock by origin**: A shift between the three shows where India's conversion margin and supply risk sit (Monthly · Department of Fertilizers, DGCI&S) - **Nutrient Based Subsidy rate for phosphorus**: Shows how much of world price swings the budget absorbs (Each season · Department of Fertilizers) - **Stocks of DAP before kharif and rabi sowing**: Low stocks before sowing raise the risk of shortages and emergency imports (Monthly · Department of Fertilizers) ## India India is the world's largest DAP importer, buying about 4.97 Mt in 2024-25, and depends on imports for about 90% of its phosphate rock, so it is exposed to Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Russia and China at every stage of the chain. ## Sources 1. [Price correlation, Material Insights](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/dap_map/correlation/), Material Insights (World Bank, FRED, IMF data) 2. [Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Phosphate rock](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-phosphate.pdf), USGS (2026) 3. [Diammonium phosphate](https://www.cropnutrition.com/resource-library/diammonium-phosphate), Nutrien Crop Nutrition resource library 4. [Sulfur and increasing phosphate fertilizer prices](https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/08/sulfur-and-increasing-phosphate-fertilizer-prices.html), farmdoc daily, University of Illinois (2026) 5. [India to become self-reliant in phosphatic fertilisers (press release)](https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1730947), Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers, PIB (2021) 6. [India imported 49.72 LMT of DAP in 24-25](https://www.indianchemicalnews.com/fertilizer/india-imported-4972-lmt-of-dap-in-24-25-27103), Indian Chemical News (2025) 7. [Global overview of diammonium phosphate (DAP) market: production, exports and geopolitical dynamics](https://eoffice.vinachem.com.vn/articles/market-and-product-vnc/global-overview-of-diammonium-phosphate-dap-market-production-exports-and-geopolitical-dynamics.html), Vinachem (2026)