# Gas turbines and combined cycle and Natural gas Gas turbines are the main way gas becomes electricity, so their fleet size and running hours set the power sector's gas burn. Where gas is expensive, as in India, plants sit idle and serve only peaks; where power demand surges, as with data centres, turbine orders run years ahead of supply. Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/links/gas-turbines-and-combined-cycle-and-natural-gas/ [Gas turbines and combined cycle](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_gas_turbines/) (energy) and [Natural gas](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/natural_gas/) (energy): 5 relationships. ## How they are linked ### 1. Fuel *Physical flow · Strong · Natural gas to turbines* Gas turbines and combined cycle plants burn natural gas to make power, so their output sets how much gas the power sector uses. - **21.8%** gas share of world electricity, 2025, down from 23.9% in 2020 - **38 TWh** rise in world gas-fired generation, 2025 Gas-fired output is still rising slowly in absolute terms, but clean power met about 68% of demand growth from 2021 to 2025. So gas demand for power now depends more on how often plants run to balance renewables than on new baseload. Sources: [Ember](https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/gas-share-in-global-power-mix-has-declined-for-a-fifth-consecutive-year) ### 2. Flexible backup *Transition · Rising · Turbines balance renewables* Gas turbines can start and change output quickly, so as solar and wind grow they are used more to cover evening peaks and low-wind periods. - **12.6% to 2.3%** gas share of India's electricity, 2010 to 2025 Ember finds gas moving from a source of structural growth towards a balancing role, and says India has already passed its gas peak. Plants that run few hours need capacity payments or high peak prices to stay viable. Sources: [Ember](https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/gas-share-in-global-power-mix-has-declined-for-a-fifth-consecutive-year) ### 3. Fuel cost strands plants *Cost and price · High in India · Gas price decides plant use* Fuel is the main running cost of a gas plant, so when imported LNG is dear, gas power cannot compete with coal or solar and plants sit idle. - **14.5%** average use of India's gas fleet, year to March 2025 - **25.2 GW to 20.1 GW** India's listed gas fleet, March to April 2025 - **14.3 GW** stranded gas plants in 31 projects, 2019 IEEFA estimated in 2019 that 24.9 GW of India's gas plants were stranded or under-used, built at a cost of almost Rs 650 billion, and that LNG at USD 7.5 to 8 per MMBtu gave power at about Rs 8 per kWh. In 2025 India dropped about 5 GW of long-idle units from its fleet count. Sources: [Deccan Herald (Bloomberg)](https://www.deccanherald.com/amp/story/india%2Findia-shrinks-its-gas-fleet-as-idle-plants-become-unusable-3548996); [IEEFA](https://ieefa.org/resources/flexible-generation-role-indias-stressed-and-stranded-gas-based-power-plants) ### 4. Turbine backlog *Transition · Rising · Power demand to turbine orders and gas burn* Fast-growing loads, notably data centres, need firm power quickly, so utilities and developers have booked gas turbines years ahead, locking in future gas demand. - **122 GW** GE Vernova gas equipment backlog and slot reservations, end of September 2026, up from 116 GW in June - **about 80 GW** the same backlog expected at end 2025 - **24 GW a year** GE Vernova production target by 2028 Deliveries already stretched into 2029 in late 2025, and GE Vernova expected at least 130 GW under contract by the end of 2026, so new gas plants ordered now come online only at the end of the decade. Each turbine built then commits gas demand for decades if it runs, which matters for LNG contracting. Sources: [Energy Central](https://energycentral.com/energy-biz/post/news-ge-vernova-expects-to-end-2025-with-an-80-gw-gas-turbine-backlog-w8gPfMhqrqm8dUo); [GE Vernova](https://www.gevernova.com/news/ge-vernova-reports-strong-third-quarter-2026-financial-performance) ### 5. Price link: fuel and demand *Cost and price · Weak · Both ways* Cheap, plentiful gas encourages new plants, but turbine prices are set in multi-year contracts and respond to power demand and policy more than to fuel prices. - **0.04** monthly change correlation - **0.00** 12-month change correlation - **0.03** fitted elasticity The link between gas and turbines runs through plant running hours and orders, not equipment prices. Sources: [Material Insights (World Bank, FRED, IMF data)](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_gas_turbines/correlation/) ## For investors ### Key learnings 1. Gas burn in power depends on running hours more than on fleet size: India's fleet ran at 14.5% in the year to March 2025. 2. GE Vernova's gas equipment backlog and reservations rose from about 80 GW expected at end 2025 to 122 GW by September 2026, pointing to more gas-fired capacity late in the decade. 3. Gas's share of world power has fallen five years running, so turbine demand is shifting from baseload towards balancing and fast-growing loads. ### What to track - **Gas turbine order backlogs and delivery slots**: Longer backlogs signal more gas-fired capacity and future gas demand (Quarterly · GE Vernova, Siemens Energy, Mitsubishi results) - **Gas-fired generation share**: Falling share with steady output means a balancing role (Monthly · Ember; national grid operators) - **Spot LNG price against coal and solar power costs**: Lower LNG prices raise running hours of import-fed plants (Daily · Platts JKM; CEA and exchange prices) ## For policymakers ### Key learnings 1. India's gas plants are a costly backup: about 25 GW were stranded or under-used in 2019, and capacity has since been written down. 2. Gas plants can help meet summer and evening peaks, but only with an affordable fuel arrangement and payment for capacity. 3. Turbine supply is tight to the end of the decade, so new gas capacity cannot be added quickly in an emergency. ### What to track - **Gas plant use and availability at peak**: Shows whether gas capacity is helping meet peak demand (Monthly · Central Electricity Authority) - **Gas price for power plants**: Lower delivered prices make gas backup affordable (Monthly · PPAC; power ministry notices) ## India India's gas share of electricity fell from 12.6% in 2010 to 2.3% in 2025, and its listed gas fleet was cut from 25.2 GW to 20.1 GW in 2025 after years of idle plants. ## Sources 1. [Price correlation, Material Insights](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_gas_turbines/correlation/), Material Insights (World Bank, FRED, IMF data) 2. [Gas share in global power mix has declined for a fifth consecutive year](https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/gas-share-in-global-power-mix-has-declined-for-a-fifth-consecutive-year), Ember (2026) 3. [India shrinks its gas fleet as idle plants become unusable](https://www.deccanherald.com/amp/story/india%2Findia-shrinks-its-gas-fleet-as-idle-plants-become-unusable-3548996), Deccan Herald (Bloomberg) (2025) 4. [Flexible generation: role of India's stressed and stranded gas-based power plants](https://ieefa.org/resources/flexible-generation-role-indias-stressed-and-stranded-gas-based-power-plants), IEEFA (2019) 5. [GE Vernova expects to end 2025 with an 80-GW gas turbine backlog that stretches into 2029](https://energycentral.com/energy-biz/post/news-ge-vernova-expects-to-end-2025-with-an-80-gw-gas-turbine-backlog-w8gPfMhqrqm8dUo), Energy Central (2025) 6. [GE Vernova reports strong third quarter 2026 financial performance](https://www.gevernova.com/news/ge-vernova-reports-strong-third-quarter-2026-financial-performance), GE Vernova (2026)