# Maize and Soybeans

Maize and soybeans compete for the same farmland, are grown in rotation, and are fed together as energy and protein, so their prices and acreages move as a pair.

Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/links/maize-and-soybeans/

[Maize](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/maize/) (commodity) and [Soybeans](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/soybeans/) (commodity): 4 relationships.

## How they are linked

### 1. Competing for acres

*Substitution · Strong · Acres shift between the two*

In the US Corn Belt and Brazil, farmers choose each season between maize and soybeans on the same land, so relative prices and costs move area from one to the other.

- **95.2 m acres** US corn planted, 2025 (June estimate), up 5%
- **83.4 m acres** US soybeans planted, 2025 (June estimate), down 4%

The 2025 swing shows the trade-off: more maize meant fewer soybeans. Farmers weigh the soybean to corn price ratio, input costs and rotation; when nitrogen is dear, soybeans look better because they need little fertiliser.

Sources: [USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service](https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/archive/2025/06-30-2025.php); [University of Illinois, farmdoc daily](https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/fdd052925.pdf)

### 2. Price link: land competition

*Cost and price · Strong · Both ways*

Because acres can switch, a price gain in one crop draws land from the other and lifts its price too, and both respond to the same weather and demand shocks.

- **0.53** monthly change correlation
- **0.76** 12-month change correlation
- **1.07** fitted elasticity

The link is strongest over a year, as planting responds. It weakens when demand diverges, for example when Chinese soybean buying or vegetable oil prices move soybeans without maize.

Sources: [Material Insights (World Bank, FRED, IMF data)](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/maize/correlation/)

### 3. Grown in rotation

*Joint production · Medium · Soybeans raise the following maize crop*

Soybeans fix most of their own nitrogen, so maize planted after soybeans yields more and needs less fertiliser than maize after maize.

- **10 bushels per acre** yield penalty for corn after corn (188 bu) versus corn after soybeans, farmdoc 2012 budget
- **about 45% vs 30%** fertiliser share of direct costs, corn vs soybeans, 2000 to 2024

This rotation benefit keeps many farms in a corn-soybean pattern even when prices favour one crop, which limits how far acres swing in a single season.

Sources: [University of Illinois, farmdoc daily](https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2012/01/corn-soybean-planting-decision.html); [University of Illinois, farmdoc daily](https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/fdd052925.pdf)

### 4. Feed partners

*Shared risk · Strong · Both go into livestock feed*

Livestock rations pair maize for energy with soybean meal for protein, so poultry and pig demand lifts both together.

- **about 65 to 70%** maize share of Indian poultry feed cost
- **about 30%** soybean meal share of Indian poultry feed cost

Because both feed the same animals, a disease outbreak or a fall in meat demand hits both crops. They are complements in the ration rather than substitutes.

Sources: [ICRA](https://www.icra.in/Rating/DownloadResearchSpecialCommentReport?id=4904)

## For investors

### Key learnings

1. Maize and soybeans are tied by land: acreage swings like 2025's (corn up 5%, soybeans down 4%) set next year's supply of both.
2. The yearly price correlation of 0.76 reflects shared land and shared feed demand; Chinese soybean buying is a major force that can split them.
3. Rotation benefits damp how far acres shift in one season, so the price ratio has to move further to change the crop mix.

### What to track

- **Soybean to corn new-crop price ratio**: Signals which crop farmers will favour (Daily · CME futures)
- **USDA prospective plantings and acreage reports**: Actual acreage split (March and June · USDA NASS)
- **China soybean imports**: Demand that can decouple soybeans from maize (Monthly · China customs)

## For policymakers

### Key learnings

1. Crop choices respond to relative prices and input costs, so fertiliser policy shifts the maize to soybean balance.
2. Feed security needs both crops, since maize and soybean meal are used together.
3. Rotation with legumes lowers nitrogen needs and supports soil health, a low-cost policy lever.

### What to track

- **Kharif area under maize and soybean**: Shift between the two in central India (Weekly in season · Ministry of Agriculture)
- **Soybean meal and maize prices**: Feed cost pressure on livestock (Weekly · SOPA and Agmarknet)

## India

Indian poultry feed relies on both crops: maize for about 65 to 70% of feed cost and soybean meal for about 30%.

## Sources

1. [Price correlation, Material Insights](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/maize/correlation/), Material Insights (World Bank, FRED, IMF data)
2. [Corn planted acreage up 5% from 2024, soybean acreage down 4% (Acreage report news release)](https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/archive/2025/06-30-2025.php), USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (2025)
3. [Corn-soybean planting decision](https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2012/01/corn-soybean-planting-decision.html), University of Illinois, farmdoc daily (2012)
4. [farmdoc daily, 29 May 2025: nitrogen fertilizer use and efficiency](https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/fdd052925.pdf), University of Illinois, farmdoc daily (2025)
5. [Indian poultry industry: earnings volatility to persist](https://www.icra.in/Rating/DownloadResearchSpecialCommentReport?id=4904), ICRA (2023)