# Maize and Sugar Maize competes with sugar twice: as high-fructose syrup in US food and drinks, a use now in long decline, and as an ethanol feedstock that is taking share from cane in Brazil and India. Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/links/maize-and-sugar/ [Maize](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/maize/) (commodity) and [Sugar](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sugar/) (commodity): 4 relationships. ## How they are linked ### 1. Price link: rival sweetener and fuel crop *Cost and price · Weak · Both ways* Maize is made into high-fructose corn syrup that replaces sugar and is also a major ethanol crop, so some demand shocks touch both. Their harvests, main growers and policies differ, so prices move together only loosely. - **0.23** monthly change correlation - **0.13** 12-month change correlation - **0.48** fitted elasticity A monthly correlation of 0.23 that weakens to 0.13 over twelve months means the two do not share a trend. Sugar prices are driven mainly by Brazilian cane and Indian export policy; maize prices by the US, Chinese and Brazilian crops and feed demand. Treat any link as event driven, for example through ethanol, not as a hedge. Sources: [Material Insights (World Bank, FRED, IMF data)](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sugar/correlation/) ### 2. Corn syrup replaces sugar *Substitution · Medium · Maize syrup can replace cane and beet sugar* High-fructose corn syrup, the main corn sweetener, does the same job as sugar in drinks and processed food, so US food makers can switch between them on price and consumer preference. - **65.9 lb** US per capita HFCS deliveries at the 1999 peak - **39.5 lb** US per capita HFCS deliveries, 2021 - **40%** fall in HFCS deliveries, 2000 to 2018 The swap ran in maize's favour until 1999 and has since reversed: HFCS deliveries fell 40% between 2000 and 2018 while refined sugar rose 5%, and by 2021 US refined sugar deliveries reached 69.8 lb a head, the highest since 1995. The relationship is mostly a US one and now shifts demand back towards sugar. Sources: [USDA Economic Research Service](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/charts-of-note/105825); [USDA Economic Research Service](https://ers.usda.gov/data-products/charts-of-note/95097) ### 3. Rival ethanol feedstocks *Substitution · Rising · Maize ethanol takes share from cane ethanol* Ethanol can be fermented from cane juice and molasses or from maize starch, so where both are available they compete for blending demand, and the more ethanol is made from maize, the less cane needs to be diverted from sugar. - **27%** of Brazil's ethanol made from corn, 2025-26 season - **48 to 51%** of India's ethanol supply from maize, ESY 2024-25 - **about 31%** of India's ethanol supply from sugarcane feedstocks, ESY 2024-25 In Brazil corn ethanol reached 9.19 billion litres of 33.72 billion in the 2025-26 season. In India maize became the largest feedstock in ESY 2024-25, with sugarcane feedstocks supplying about 321 crore of about 1,039 crore litres. In the US, corn use for ethanol is forecast at 5.55 billion bushels in 2025/26, against 6.35 billion bushels for feed and residual use, which ties maize demand to fuel policy. Sources: [USDA Economic Research Service](https://ers.usda.gov/media/29348/fds-26g.pdf); [UkrAgroConsult (UNICA data)](https://ukragroconsult.com/en/news/unica-corn-accounts-for-27-of-brazilian-ethanol-production-during-2025-26-harvest-season/); [Outlook Business (AIDA data)](https://www.outlookbusiness.com/industry/maize-leads-esy-2024-25-ethanol-feedstock-shift) ### 4. India's ethanol blending programme *Policy · High in India · Blending policy sets demand for both crops in India* India's oil marketing companies buy ethanol at procurement prices that differ by feedstock, so the price paid for maize ethanol against cane-based ethanol shapes how much of each crop is drawn into fuel. - **₹71.86 per litre** procurement price for maize-based ethanol, as reported in February 2026 The shift to maize in ESY 2024-25 eased pressure to divert cane from sugar but added fuel demand to maize, which is also used for feed and starch. Changes to feedstock prices or allocations can therefore move Indian maize and sugar balances at the same time. Sources: [Outlook Business (AIDA data)](https://www.outlookbusiness.com/industry/maize-leads-esy-2024-25-ethanol-feedstock-shift) ## For investors ### Key learnings 1. The price link is weak, with a monthly correlation of 0.23, so maize is a poor hedge for sugar and links show up through policy events rather than shared trends. 2. Sweetener substitution now favours sugar: US per capita HFCS deliveries fell from 65.9 lb in 1999 to 39.5 lb in 2021. 3. Ethanol is where the crops now compete, with corn supplying 27% of Brazil's ethanol in 2025-26 and maize about half of India's in ESY 2024-25. ### What to track - **Corn share of Brazilian ethanol output**: A rising share frees cane for sugar and can weigh on world sugar prices (Fortnightly · UNICA) - **US corn use for ethanol**: Higher use tightens maize balances and ties maize to fuel policy (Monthly · USDA WASDE and ERS Feed Outlook) - **India ethanol allocations by feedstock**: Shows how much maize and cane each supply year draws into fuel (Each supply year tender · OMCs, AIDA) ## For policymakers ### Key learnings 1. India's blending programme moved ethanol demand from cane towards maize, so feedstock procurement prices now steer both crop choices and sugar availability. 2. Grain ethanol reduces the need to divert cane from sugar, but it adds fuel demand to a crop also used for feed and starch. 3. US sweetener data show that preference and health concerns can cut a crop's market sharply: HFCS deliveries fell 40% between 2000 and 2018. ### What to track - **Ethanol procurement prices by feedstock**: Relative prices decide the maize and cane mix in blending (Each supply year · Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, OMCs) - **Domestic maize and sugar prices**: Rising maize prices alongside stable sugar point to fuel demand pulling on grain (Weekly · Agmarknet, Department of Food and Public Distribution) ## India India's ethanol programme made maize its largest ethanol feedstock in ESY 2024-25, at 48 to 51% of supply against about 31% from sugarcane feedstocks, so fuel policy now links the country's maize and sugar markets. ## Sources 1. [Price correlation, Material Insights](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sugar/correlation/), Material Insights (World Bank, FRED, IMF data) 2. [Per capita sweetener deliveries rose in 2021, driven by refined sugar](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/charts-of-note/105825), USDA Economic Research Service (2023) 3. [U.S. caloric sweetener deliveries (Charts of Note)](https://ers.usda.gov/data-products/charts-of-note/95097), USDA Economic Research Service (2019) 4. [Feed Outlook: July 2026 (FDS-26g)](https://ers.usda.gov/media/29348/fds-26g.pdf), USDA Economic Research Service (2026) 5. [UNICA: Corn accounts for 27% of Brazilian ethanol production during 2025-26 harvest season](https://ukragroconsult.com/en/news/unica-corn-accounts-for-27-of-brazilian-ethanol-production-during-2025-26-harvest-season/), UkrAgroConsult (UNICA data) (2026) 6. [Maize leads ESY 2024-25 ethanol feedstock mix](https://www.outlookbusiness.com/industry/maize-leads-esy-2024-25-ethanol-feedstock-shift), Outlook Business (AIDA data) (2026)