Material Insights · Understanding the Material World

Nickel and Palladium

Much of the world's palladium is dug out with nickel and copper at Norilsk in Russia, so palladium supply depends on one nickel miner and on sanctions and trade policy towards Russia, a risk far larger for palladium than for nickel.

Nickel (commodity) and Palladium (commodity): 4 relationships.

How they are linked

1. Mined together at Norilsk

Joint production · Strong · Nickel-copper ore yields palladium

The Norilsk and Talnakh deposits are copper-nickel sulphide ores rich in platinum-group metals, so palladium is recovered alongside nickel and copper when the ore is processed, and output of each rises and falls with the ore mined.

  • 2,762 koz Nornickel palladium output, 2024
  • 205 kt Nornickel nickel output, 2024
  • about 40% Nornickel share of world palladium supply

Ore grades at Norilsk are about 1.15% nickel, 1.87% copper and 6.28 g per tonne of PGMs, so a tonne of ore carries both metals. Nornickel cannot raise palladium output without mining more nickel ore, and vice versa. Smaller amounts of PGMs also come from copper-nickel mines elsewhere, such as in Michigan.

Sources: USGS; Nornickel; Mining.com (Reuters)

2. Russian supply weighs more on palladium

Geography and ownership · Asymmetric · Russia matters far more for palladium than for nickel

Russia is the largest palladium miner but a mid-sized nickel producer since Indonesia's rise, so the same Russian disruption is a market-moving event for palladium and a minor one for nickel.

  • 84,000 kg Russian palladium output, 2025, of about 190,000 kg worldwide
  • 200,000 t Russian nickel output, 2025, of about 3.9 Mt worldwide

Russia supplied about 44% of world palladium in 2025 but about 5% of nickel. Its PGM output fell about 6% in 2025, which USGS links to lower ore grades and recovery and to uncertainty from the war in Ukraine.

Sources: USGS; USGS

3. Trade action on Russian metal

Policy · Medium · Sanctions and duties on Russia reach both metals

Western trade measures aimed at Russian metals fall on Nornickel's output, and because palladium supply is so concentrated, duties or bans on Russian palladium can reshape the market.

  • 132.83% US final antidumping duty set on Russian unwrought palladium, April 2026
  • 109.1% US final countervailing duty determination

Sibanye-Stillwater and the United Steelworkers petitioned in July 2025, citing a 35% rise in US imports of Russian palladium. The Commerce Department set the duties, but on 29 May 2026 the US International Trade Commission found no material injury, so no antidumping or countervailing duty orders were issued.

Sources: Mining.com (Reuters); US International Trade Commission; Modern Mining

4. Electric cars pull them apart

Transition · Medium · EVs add nickel demand and cut palladium demand

Palladium's main use is the catalytic converter on petrol cars, while nickel goes into many battery cathodes, so a shift from petrol cars to battery cars moves demand away from palladium and towards nickel.

  • 5% forecast fall in automotive palladium demand, 2025

Johnson Matthey expected lower petrol car output to cut automotive palladium demand by 5% in 2025. For Nornickel the transition partly offsets itself, since one metal gains as the other loses, but for palladium alone it is a long-run demand risk.

Sources: USGS; Johnson Matthey

For investors

Key learnings

  1. Nornickel supplies about 40% of world palladium as a co-product of nickel and copper, so palladium supply cannot respond to price on its own.
  2. Russia produced about 84,000 kg of the world's 190,000 kg of palladium in 2025 but only about 5% of nickel, so Russia risk is a palladium story first.
  3. Electric cars add nickel demand and remove palladium demand, so the two metals' long-run outlooks diverge.

What to track

  • Nornickel production guidance for nickel and palladium: Changes signal supply shifts for palladium in particular (Quarterly and yearly · Nornickel reports)
  • Trade actions on Russian metals: New duties or bans can split prices for Russian and other palladium (As announced · US Commerce and ITC, EU, UK)
  • Palladium price: Weakness reflects the fall in petrol car demand and recycling growth (Daily · LBMA, NYMEX)

For policymakers

Key learnings

  1. Palladium supply risk is concentrated in one Russian nickel company, so diversifying palladium means supporting South African, Canadian and recycled supply.
  2. Trade remedies can fail on injury grounds: the US set duties above 100% on Russian palladium in 2026, but the ITC's negative finding stopped them.
  3. For an importer such as India, palladium for petrol-car catalysts is the more exposed of the two metals to Russia-related disruption.

What to track

  • Palladium imports by source country: Shows dependence on Russia against South Africa and refining hubs (Monthly · Commerce ministry TradeStat)
  • Russian PGM output: Falls tighten world palladium supply (Yearly · USGS; quarterly · Nornickel)

India

India is not among the producers USGS lists for either metal, so its petrol-car catalyst makers import palladium and its stainless and battery users import nickel; palladium is the one heavily tied to Russian supply.

Sources

  1. Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Platinum-group metals, USGS (2026)
  2. Annual Report 2024: About the company, Nornickel (2025)
  3. US moves closer to prohibitive tariffs on Russian palladium, Mining.com (Reuters) (2026)
  4. Palladium from Russia: final determinations (News Release 26-077), US International Trade Commission (2026)
  5. Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Nickel, USGS (2026)
  6. Sibanye-Stillwater welcomes preliminary affirmative antidumping determination on Russian palladium imports, Modern Mining (2026)
  7. Johnson Matthey publishes 2025 PGM Market Report, Johnson Matthey (2025)