Material Insights · Understanding the Material World

Paper and packaging and Plastic and rubber products

Paper and plastic compete for the same packaging jobs and are also combined in laminates and cartons; India's 2022 ban on many single-use plastic items pushed brand owners towards paper, and prices of the two industries move closely together.

Paper and packaging (industry) and Plastic and rubber products (industry): 5 relationships.

How they are linked

1. Substitute packaging

Substitution · Rising · Paper replaces plastic in many packs

Paper and board can do many of the jobs of plastic films, cups and bags, so bans and brand-owner targets on plastic shift demand to paper.

  • 15 million tonnes packaging paper and board, of a 23 million tonne Indian paper market, 2025
  • 8 to 9% yearly growth of packaging paper demand in recent years, IPMA, 2025

The paper industry association expects double-digit growth in packaging grades over the next decade as brand owners move from single-use plastic to paper. Substitution is limited where packs need moisture or oxygen barriers, which is why many paper packs still carry a plastic layer.

Sources: The Week (PTI)

2. Single-use plastic ban

Policy · High in India · Rules ban some plastic items and favour alternatives

India banned a list of low-value single-use plastic items, many of which have paper or board alternatives, and raised the minimum thickness of plastic carry bags.

  • 1 July 2022 start of the ban on listed single-use plastic items
  • 120 microns minimum thickness of plastic carry bags from 31 December 2022 (75 microns from 30 September 2021)

Banned items include plastic plates, cups, cutlery, straws, stirrers, ice-cream and candy sticks, and wrapping films around sweet boxes, invitation cards and cigarette packets. Items such as plates, cups and cutlery made of compostable plastic are exempt, so the rules favour both paper and compostable plastic.

Sources: Mondaq; Press Information Bureau, Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change

3. Buys from

Physical flow · ₹4 per ₹100 · Paper and packaging buys from Plastic and rubber products, and the reverse

Carton, liquid-pack and laminate makers buy plastic films and coatings, while plastic converters buy paper for laminates and outer cartons.

  • ₹4 of every ₹100 of Paper and packaging output spent on plastic products, all rounds (India 2022)
  • ₹2.3 of every ₹100 of Plastic and rubber output spent on paper, all rounds

These flows show the two are partners as well as rivals: liquid cartons and many flexible packs are paper and plastic layers bonded together.

Sources: OECD

4. Industry input

Physical flow · Criticality 3 of 5 · Plastic and rubber products to Paper and packaging

Folding carton, liquid carton and laminate converters depend on plastic films and coatings, rated 3 of 5; plastic converters depend on paper for laminate structures, rated 2.

Laminates make recycling harder because the layers must be separated, so rules on plastic in packaging also reach paper-based packs that use plastic coatings.

Enterprise types that depend on it:

  • Plastic converters (film, packaging, pipes and moulded parts): laminate structures (criticality 2 of 5)

Sources: Material Insights; Material Insights

5. Price co-movement

Cost and price · Strong · Prices move closely together

Both sell mainly to the same consumer-goods and food packaging buyers and share energy and chemical costs, so their prices respond to the same demand and cost swings.

  • about 0.78 correlation of 12-month price changes, India WPI
  • about 0.50 correlation of monthly changes

The link can weaken when crude oil, which drives plastic resin prices, and pulp or waste-paper prices move apart.

Sources: Material Insights (World Bank, FRED, IMF data)

For investors

Key learnings

  1. Packaging paper and board are about 15 Mt of India's 23 Mt paper market and growing at 8 to 9% a year, helped by the shift from single-use plastic.
  2. Paper and plastic are partners as well as rivals: laminates and cartons combine them, and each buys from the other.
  3. Their prices move closely over a year (about 0.78), so packaging cost trends affect both industries together.

What to track

  • Kraft paper and duplex board prices: Rising prices slow switching from plastic to paper (Weekly · industry price reports)
  • Polyethylene and polypropylene prices: Cheaper resin weakens the cost case for paper (Weekly · polymer producers' price lists)
  • Brand-owner packaging commitments: More paper-based packs raise board demand (Annual · company sustainability reports)

For policymakers

Key learnings

  1. The 2022 ban on single-use items and thicker carry bag rules shifted demand towards paper and compostable alternatives.
  2. Paper packs often contain plastic layers, so recycling rules need to treat laminates explicitly.
  3. Rising paper packaging demand will draw more wood fibre and recovered paper, so fibre supply needs planning alongside plastic rules.

What to track

  • Enforcement of the single-use plastic ban: Weak enforcement slows substitution to paper (Monthly · CPCB, state pollution control boards)
  • Packaging paper output and imports: Shows whether supply keeps up with substitution (Quarterly · IPMA, DGCI&S)
  • EPR compliance for plastic packaging: Higher obligations raise plastic packaging costs (Annual · CPCB EPR portal)

India

India banned listed single-use plastic items from July 2022, and packaging paper and board, about 15 Mt of a 23 Mt paper market, are growing as brand owners switch.

Sources

  1. OECD Input-Output Tables 2025 edition, India 2022, OECD
  2. Price correlation, Material Insights, Material Insights (World Bank, FRED, IMF data)
  3. Industry map: Paper and packaging, Material Insights (2026)
  4. Industry map: Plastic and rubber products, Material Insights (2026)
  5. Packaging paper demand to grow in double digits on rising adoption of sustainable products: IPMA, The Week (PTI) (2025)
  6. Government amends the Plastic Waste Management Rules to control pollution caused by single use plastics, Mondaq (2021)
  7. Ban on identified single use plastic items from 1st July 2022, Press Information Bureau, Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (2022)