Material Insights · Understanding the Material World

Paper and packaging and Waste and recycling

Used cartons and paper collected by the waste trade are the main fibre for Indian paper mills, which make about three quarters of their output from recycled fibre. Because only about 57% of used paper is recovered at home, mills also import millions of tonnes of waste paper a year, so domestic collection and foreign export rules both shape mill costs.

Paper and packaging (industry) and Waste and recycling (industry): 6 relationships.

How they are linked

1. Buys from

Physical flow · ₹2 per ₹100 · Paper and packaging buys from Waste and recycling

Recycled-fibre mills buy graded, baled waste paper and collection services from dealers, aggregators and sorting plants.

  • ₹2 of every ₹100 of Paper and packaging output, all rounds (India 2022)
  • ₹1 bought directly

The figure understates the fibre link, because imported waste paper is counted as imports, not as purchases from the domestic waste sector. US producer prices for the two industries barely move together month to month (correlation about 0.00) and only loosely over a year (12-month correlation about 0.32), with paper prices leading by about six months.

Sources: OECD; Material Insights (World Bank, FRED, IMF data)

2. Buys from

Physical flow · ₹1 per ₹100 · Waste and recycling buys from Paper and packaging

Collectors and recyclers buy sacks, cartons, wrapping and other paper products as operating supplies.

  • ₹1 of every ₹100 of Waste and recycling output, all rounds (India 2022)
  • ₹0.3 bought directly

This is a minor cost line for the waste sector. The economically important flow runs the other way: paper and board leave the industry as products and return to it as scrap.

Sources: OECD

3. Industry input

Physical flow · Criticality 3 of 5 · Waste and recycling to Paper and packaging

Waste-paper collectors and recovered-paper dealers (rated 3 of 5) and recycled kraft, containerboard and duplex mills (2 of 5) depend on municipal and commercial scrap streams for fibre.

  • about 23 Mt paper produced in India, 2024-25
  • about 75% share made from recovered paper or recycled fibre

Recycled fibre is the main raw material for packaging grades such as kraft liner and duplex board, so scrap quality and price feed straight into box costs. The rating is moderate because many dealers and mills compete, and imported fibre can fill gaps, at a higher cost.

Enterprise types that depend on it:

  • Plastic, paper and glass recyclers: mills buy recovered fibre (criticality 2 of 5)

Sources: Material Insights; Waste & Recycling magazine; Centre for Science and Environment

4. Industry input

Physical flow · Criticality 2 of 5 · Paper and packaging to Waste and recycling

Plastic, paper and glass recyclers depend on paper mills as the buyers of the recovered fibre they collect and sort.

Rated low because hundreds of mills buy waste paper, so a sorter can find another buyer. The dependence rises when mills cut output or switch to cheaper imported scrap, which pushes down local scrap prices.

Enterprise types that depend on it:

  • Plastic, paper and glass recyclers: mills buy recovered fibre (criticality 2 of 5)

Sources: Material Insights

5. Recovered fibre loop

Physical flow · Strong · Used paper back to the mill

Paper fibre can be pulped several times, so used paper and board return to mills as their cheapest fibre, but India recovers less of its used paper than Europe or Japan.

  • about 57% recovery rate of waste paper by Indian mills (CSE estimate, 2023)
  • about 7 Mt recovered paper imported by India a year (IPMA estimate, January 2026)
  • about 9 Mt waste paper diverted to secondary uses, about 43% of consumption (CSE, 2023)

Europe recovers about 70% and Japan about 80%, so the gap at home is filled by imports. Asia's recovered paper imports from Europe rose to about 7 Mt in 2023, with India a major buyer, which ties Indian mill costs to European collection and freight.

Sources: Centre for Science and Environment; Waste & Recycling magazine; The Pulp and Paper Times

6. Rules at both ends

Policy · Rising · Waste rules shape fibre supply

India has no law specific to waste paper, while Europe is tightening rules on shipping waste abroad, so policy in both places decides how much fibre reaches Indian mills.

CSE has proposed extended producer responsibility guidelines for waste paper, GST relief for firms that meet recovery targets and quality standards for recovered fibre. The revised EU Waste Shipment Regulation could restrict recovered paper exports to non-OECD countries, India included, after 2027 unless the material gains end-of-waste status. India's ban on single-use plastic, meanwhile, adds demand for paper bags and boxes.

Sources: Waste & Recycling magazine; The Pulp and Paper Times; Centre for Science and Environment

For investors

Key learnings

  1. Indian packaging paper is mainly a recycled-fibre business, so waste paper prices are a leading cost driver for kraft and duplex mills.
  2. Low domestic recovery, about 57% against 70 to 80% in Europe and Japan, keeps mills reliant on imported scrap and exposed to freight and foreign export rules.
  3. Producer prices of the two industries move together only loosely, so the link shows up in mill margins more than in sector price indices.

What to track

  • Imported recovered paper prices (OCC and mixed grades): Rising prices squeeze recycled kraft and duplex mill margins (Monthly · trade press; twice yearly · BIR)
  • India waste paper import volumes: Higher volumes signal weak domestic collection or cheap foreign scrap (Monthly · DGCI&S, WITS)
  • Domestic kraft paper and duplex board prices: Show whether mills can pass on fibre costs (Weekly · trade press)

For policymakers

Key learnings

  1. Raising India's paper recovery rate from about 57% towards European levels would replace imported fibre with domestic scrap.
  2. India has no waste paper specific rules, unlike plastics and e-waste, and EPR guidelines, recovery-linked GST relief and quality standards have been proposed.
  3. The revised EU Waste Shipment Regulation could limit recovered paper exports to India after 2027, so better segregation at home is also a supply security issue.

What to track

  • Waste paper recovery rate: Shows whether segregation and collection policy is working (Annual · CSE, IPMA, CPCB)
  • Recovered paper import volume and sources: Signals exposure to foreign export rules (Monthly · DGCI&S)

India

India made about 23 million tonnes of paper in 2024-25, about three quarters of it from recycled fibre, and imports about 7 million tonnes of waste paper a year (IPMA estimate, January 2026) because only about 57% of used paper is recovered at home.

Sources

  1. OECD Input-Output Tables 2025 edition, India 2022, OECD
  2. Price correlation, Material Insights, Material Insights (World Bank, FRED, IMF data)
  3. Materials and criticality: Paper and packaging, Material Insights (2026)
  4. Materials and criticality: Waste and recycling, Material Insights (2026)
  5. Improving wastepaper circularity for the pulp and paper sector, Centre for Science and Environment (2023)
  6. India's recovered fibre sector requires reforms to reach full potential, Waste & Recycling magazine (2026)
  7. India emerges as key growth driver amid global recovered paper turmoil, BIR reports, The Pulp and Paper Times (2025)
  8. Improving wastepaper circularity for pulp and paper sector (Earthwise newsletter), Centre for Science and Environment (2024)