Material Insights · Understanding the Material World

Soda ash and Sodium-ion batteries

Sodium-ion batteries take their sodium mainly from sodium carbonate, the chemical sold as soda ash, which is cheap and plentiful, so they appeal as a lithium hedge. Their demand is tiny beside a 71 Mt soda ash market (2025), so the link matters for battery costs, not for soda ash prices.

Soda ash (commodity) and Sodium-ion batteries (energy): 4 relationships.

How they are linked

1. Sodium source

Physical flow · Medium · Soda ash to sodium-ion cells

Sodium-ion cell manufacturing relies on soda ash as its main sodium precursor, playing the role that lithium carbonate plays for lithium-ion.

  • 71 Mt world soda ash production, 2025 estimate
  • 9,262 t sodium-ion cathode output in China, 2024 (SMM estimate)

Even a fast-growing sodium-ion industry needs only a small fraction of world soda ash, which mainly goes to glass and chemicals; US end use in 2025 was 45% glass and 28% chemicals. Battery demand is therefore unlikely to tighten the soda ash market for years.

Sources: USGS; IRENA; Shanghai Metals Market

2. Lithium hedge

Substitution · Rising · Sodium replaces lithium in cells

Sodium is far more abundant and its carbonate far cheaper and steadier in price than lithium carbonate, so sodium-ion offers a way to avoid lithium price spikes, at the cost of lower energy density.

  • $100 to $500 per t sodium carbonate price range, 2020 to 2024
  • $6,000 to $83,000 per t lithium carbonate price range over the same period
  • about 1,000 times sodium's abundance relative to lithium in the Earth's crust

The case for sodium-ion is strongest when lithium is dear; with lithium near historic lows, a Stanford study found that sodium-ion still costs more per unit of energy stored and needs further breakthroughs, and that most leading designs rely on nickel. IRENA expects higher lithium costs to raise sodium-ion's share.

Sources: IRENA; Stanford University

3. China leads both

Geography and ownership · Strong · Same country dominates

China makes more than half of the world's soda ash, mostly by synthetic routes, and hosts almost all sodium-ion manufacturing, so both ends of the chain sit largely in one country.

  • 38 Mt of 71 Mt China's soda ash output against the world total, 2025 estimate
  • about 70 GWh sodium-ion production capacity expected by the end of 2025
  • over 95% of announced sodium-ion production capacity located in China

Outside China, the United States has the largest trona deposit, in Wyoming's Green River Basin, with about 47 billion t of identified recoverable soda ash resources, and synthetic soda ash is made in many countries, so sodium raw material is not a chokepoint the way processed lithium or graphite are. The concentration lies in cell and cathode making instead.

Sources: USGS; IRENA

4. Price link: sodium source

Cost and price · Moderate · Both ways

Sodium carbonate is cheap, $100 to $500 per t between 2020 and 2024, so it is unlikely to drive battery prices, which respond mainly to scale, cathode chemistry and the lithium price.

  • -0.03 monthly change correlation
  • 0.36 12-month change correlation
  • 0.72 fitted elasticity

There is no monthly link (-0.03), and the moderate yearly correlation of 0.36 between the alkalies proxy and the battery proxy more likely reflects shared energy and industrial cycles than a cost link. Soda ash prices fell in 2025 on oversupply, to about $150 per t for US natural product, which keeps sodium input costs low.

Sources: Material Insights (World Bank, FRED, IMF data); USGS; IRENA

For investors

Key learnings

  1. Sodium carbonate cost $100 to $500 per t from 2020 to 2024 against $6,000 to $83,000 for lithium carbonate, so sodium-ion mainly reduces raw material price risk rather than guaranteeing a lower cell cost.
  2. Sodium-ion demand is far too small to move a 71 Mt soda ash market, so soda ash producers gain little from it in the near term.
  3. Sodium-ion competitiveness depends on lithium prices: low lithium narrows its advantage, as the Stanford study found.

What to track

  • Lithium carbonate price: A rise above recent lows improves the case for sodium-ion and its adoption (Daily · Shanghai Metals Market, Fastmarkets)
  • Sodium-ion capacity and shipments: Shows whether output is moving toward the 400 GWh a year expected by 2030 (Quarterly · SMM, IRENA, company reports)
  • Soda ash price: Falling prices show oversupply and keep sodium inputs cheap (Monthly · USGS Mineral Industry Surveys)

For policymakers

Key learnings

  1. Sodium-ion relies on a raw material that many countries can make from salt and limestone or mine as trona, reducing exposure to concentrated lithium supply.
  2. Cell and cathode manufacturing, not sodium, is the concentrated step, and it sits mainly in China.
  3. Soda ash was in oversupply in 2025, so input supply is not what limits sodium-ion adoption; cost and performance against cheap lithium are.

What to track

  • Sodium-ion share of stationary storage tenders: Indicates whether storage buyers are diversifying away from lithium chemistries (As awarded · grid operators, tender agencies)
  • Sodium-ion cell and cathode plants announced outside China: Shows whether manufacturing concentration is easing (Yearly · IRENA, company announcements)

Sources

  1. Price correlation, Material Insights, Material Insights (World Bank, FRED, IMF data)
  2. Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Soda Ash, USGS (2026)
  3. Sodium-ion batteries: A technology brief, IRENA (2025)
  4. 2024 Sodium-Ion Battery Review and Future Outlook, Shanghai Metals Market (2025)
  5. Sodium-ion batteries need breakthroughs to compete, Stanford University (2025)