# Steam turbines and thermal power plants and Thermal coal

Thermal coal is the fuel and steam turbine plants are the machines that turn it into most of India's electricity: at CEA's normative heat rates an older Indian unit burns roughly 0.6 to 0.7 kg of domestic coal per kWh, so coal demand moves with plant load factor, while turbine orders follow state planning rather than coal prices.

Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/links/steam-turbines-and-thermal-power-plants-and-thermal-coal/

[Steam turbines and thermal power plants](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_steam_turbines/) (energy) and [Thermal coal](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/thermal_coal/) (energy): 4 relationships.

## How they are linked

### 1. Coal burned per kWh

*Physical flow · Strong · Thermal coal fuels steam turbine plants*

A coal plant's boiler turns the coal's heat into steam that spins the turbine; CEA norms allow older Indian units about 2,375 to 2,400 kcal of heat per kWh generated.

- **2,375 to 2,400 kcal/kWh** normative gross heat rate, older 200 to 600 MW subcritical units
- **3,500 to 4,000 kcal/kg** average heat content of Indian domestic thermal coal
- **about 0.6 to 0.7 kg** domestic coal per kWh at these heat rates and calorific values (derived)

Dividing the heat rate by the coal's heat content gives the coal burned per unit; imported coal above 6,000 kcal/kg needs far fewer tonnes for the same power. Indian coal averages over 40% ash, and plant performance varies widely, with unit efficiencies in CSE's rating ranging from about 26% to 42%. A machine-learning dataset of Indian units puts supercritical heat rates about 17% below subcritical ones.

Sources: [Central Electricity Authority (via CERC)](https://cercind.gov.in/2024/draft_reg/TTF2024/CEA-Recommendation on Operation Norms.pdf); [Ministry of Coal, Government of India (Lok Sabha)](https://eparlib.nic.in/bitstream/123456789/636305/1/136299.pdf); [arXiv (University of Colorado and others)](https://arxiv.org/html/2410.00016v1); [Centre for Science and Environment](https://www.cseindia.org/content/downloadreports/12769)

### 2. Load factor sets coal burn

*Transition · High in India · Fleet running hours set coal demand*

Coal burned equals fleet output times coal per unit, and thermal plants give over three quarters of India's utility power, so plant load factor is the main swing in India's coal demand.

- **over 76%** thermal share of India's utility generation, mostly coal, 2023-24
- **69%** coal plant load factor, FY2024-25
- **55%** Ember projected load factor, FY2031-32

Thermal plants generated about 1,326.5 TWh in 2023-24. If the 80 GW of thermal capacity planned by 2032 is built while solar grows fast, Ember expects load factor to fall to about 55%, so coal demand would grow much more slowly than installed capacity.

Sources: [Down To Earth](https://www.downtoearth.org.in/energy/indias-power-shift-enters-utilisation-phase-as-renewables-surge-coal-holds-energy-backbone); [Business Today](https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/economy/story/coal-plants-plf-to-fall-to-55-by-fy32-report-499990-2025-10-29)

### 3. Price link: demand driver

*Cost and price · Weak · Both ways*

Coal plants have been the largest buyers of steam turbines, yet coal prices hardly move the turbine price index, with monthly changes correlating at -0.04, because plant building follows policy and long planning cycles.

- **-0.04** monthly change correlation
- **-0.17** 12-month change correlation
- **0.11** fitted elasticity

High coal prices raise running costs but do not change orders placed years earlier, so the two cycles run separately. In India, orders follow state and central plans: BHEL won ₹81,349 crore of power sector orders in FY2024-25, within record total order inflows of ₹92,534 crore.

Sources: [Material Insights (World Bank, FRED, IMF data)](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_steam_turbines/correlation/); [BHEL (via NSE)](https://nsearchives.nseindia.com/corporate/BHELCC_20042025105755_BHELPressRelease.pdf)

### 4. Coal plant pipeline

*Policy · High in India · New turbine plants commit coal demand for decades*

Each new coal unit is built to run for decades, so the plants ordered and built today fix a large part of India's future coal demand.

- **about 39.6 GW** thermal capacity under construction in India, early 2026
- **97 GW** extra coal and lignite capacity targeted by FY2034-35
- **8.1 GW** thermal capacity BHEL commissioned or synchronised, FY2024-25

Installed coal capacity stood at about 221 GW in January 2026, with a further 22.9 GW sanctioned and 24 GW in planning. Whether this fleet burns more coal depends on demand growth and how much evening supply storage can take over.

Sources: [BHEL (via NSE)](https://nsearchives.nseindia.com/corporate/BHELCC_20042025105755_BHELPressRelease.pdf); [S&P Global Commodity Insights](https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/coal/021626-solar-power-addition-dominates-indias-generation-capacity-over-april-jan)

## For investors

### Key learnings

1. Coal demand from power is fleet size times load factor times coal per kWh, so a slide in load factor from 69% toward 55% cuts coal burn per GW sharply.
2. Turbine and boiler orders, such as BHEL's ₹81,349 crore of power orders in FY2024-25, follow India's build plan, not coal prices, which correlate at only -0.04 monthly.
3. Supercritical units need about 17% less heat per MWh than subcritical ones, so fleet renewal adds capacity faster than coal burn.

### What to track

- **Coal plant load factor**: Changes coal burn per GW and plant earnings (Monthly · CEA)
- **Coal stocks at power plants**: Low stocks signal supply strain; rising stocks signal weak burn (Daily · CEA coal stock reports)
- **BHEL thermal orders and commissioning**: Shows how much new coal capacity is coming (Quarterly · BHEL results)

## For policymakers

### Key learnings

1. Adding 97 GW of coal and lignite by FY2034-35 commits coal demand and emissions for decades, and low utilisation would fall on consumers through fixed charges.
2. Heat rate norms are a direct lever on coal burn: CEA allows about 2,375 to 2,400 kcal/kWh for older units, and better efficiency means fewer tonnes mined and moved.
3. Low-grade domestic coal, 3,500 to 4,000 kcal/kg with over 40% ash, raises the tonnes mined, carried by rail and burned per unit, and the ash to be handled.

### What to track

- **Station heat rates against CEA norms**: Shows whether fleet efficiency is improving (Yearly · CEA and CERC filings)
- **Thermal capacity under construction**: Signals future coal demand and utilisation risk (Monthly · CEA)

## India

Thermal plants, mostly coal, gave over 76% of India's utility electricity in 2023-24; coal capacity was about 221 GW in January 2026 with about 39.6 GW of thermal capacity under construction, and BHEL commissioned or synchronised 8.1 GW of thermal capacity in FY2024-25.

## Sources

1. [CEA recommendation on operation norms for thermal power stations (tariff period 2024-29)](https://cercind.gov.in/2024/draft_reg/TTF2024/CEA-Recommendation on Operation Norms.pdf), Central Electricity Authority (via CERC) (2024)
2. [Lok Sabha starred question 102: quality of coal (answer of 5 March 2013)](https://eparlib.nic.in/bitstream/123456789/636305/1/136299.pdf), Ministry of Coal, Government of India (Lok Sabha) (2013)
3. [A dataset of the operating station heat rate for 806 Indian coal plant units using machine learning](https://arxiv.org/html/2410.00016v1), arXiv (University of Colorado and others) (2024)
4. [India's power shift enters utilisation phase as renewables surge, coal holds energy backbone](https://www.downtoearth.org.in/energy/indias-power-shift-enters-utilisation-phase-as-renewables-surge-coal-holds-energy-backbone), Down To Earth (2026)
5. [Coal plants' PLF to fall to 55% by FY32: report](https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/economy/story/coal-plants-plf-to-fall-to-55-by-fy32-report-499990-2025-10-29), Business Today (2025)
6. [BHEL press release: performance in FY2024-25](https://nsearchives.nseindia.com/corporate/BHELCC_20042025105755_BHELPressRelease.pdf), BHEL (via NSE) (2025)
7. [Solar power addition dominates India's generation capacity over April-Jan](https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/coal/021626-solar-power-addition-dominates-indias-generation-capacity-over-april-jan), S&P Global Commodity Insights (2026)
8. [Price correlation, Material Insights](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_steam_turbines/correlation/), Material Insights (World Bank, FRED, IMF data)
9. [Green rating of coal-based thermal power plants (unit data)](https://www.cseindia.org/content/downloadreports/12769), Centre for Science and Environment