Carbon black: Correlation
Prices it moves with, and why
Carbon black is made by burning heavy oils, from refineries or coke oven tar, with little air. Most goes into tyres and rubber goods, the rest into inks and plastics. Contracts often index it to feedstock oil prices.
Price index US PPI: carbon black, all processes index (BLS base period) · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026What its price moves with
Selected linkCarbon black and Refining and reforming
Monthly changes 0.01 little or none correlation 12-month changes 0.61 moderate correlation Last 5 years -0.08 monthly changes Lead or lag +1 mo Refining and reforming tends to lead by 1 month (r 0.33) Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Carbon black ≈ 14.2 × (Refining and reforming)0.57 R² 0.25 On this fit, a 10% higher refining and reforming price goes with a 5.6% higher carbon black price over the long run. Units: index (BLS base period) and index. The fit is loose, so treat the function as a rough guide.Chart: Carbon black and Refining and reforming prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale
Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size.Chart: Carbon black price against Refining and reforming price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line
Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic.Heavy residual oil from refinery cracking units is the main feedstock. Contracts pass oil costs through with a lag, so monthly moves correlate at only 0.01, but yearly moves at 0.61.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsFeedstock oil prices follow crude oil, and many contracts adjust prices to oil indices each quarter. The lag hides the link month to month, at minus 0.07, but yearly moves correlate at 0.57.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsTyres mix carbon black with natural rubber, so tyre demand drives both. But their prices follow different costs, oil for one and weather for the other: monthly moves correlate at minus 0.15 and yearly moves at 0.13.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsSynthetic rubber and carbon black are mixed in tyres, and both are oil-based and priced on contracts. The SBR index correlates at 0.33 for monthly moves and 0.62 for yearly moves.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsCoal tar from coke ovens, which turn coking coal into coke for steel, is another feedstock, important in China and India. Monthly moves correlate at 0.00 and yearly moves at 0.64, as both follow energy cycles.
little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsMost carbon black goes into tyres, so car and truck output sets demand. The proxy is a US vehicle price index, and correlates at 0.23 for monthly moves and 0.28 for yearly moves.
weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show chartsHow to read these numbers
Correlation of monthly changes (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.
12-month changes compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.
Price function is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.
Lead or lag checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.
Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.
Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.