How Beijing can switch off cathode exports at short notice
What this tab covers How it is regulated and what could disrupt supply: hazard classification, rules in the EU, US and India, anti-dumping duties and other trade measures, and supply-risk notes.
Hazards
Classification
UN number
Key risks
NMC and NCA: nickel compounds are carcinogen cat 1A and skin sensitisers; cobalt compounds carcinogen and reproductive toxicant (EU CLP, indicative); LFP largely unclassified
UN3077 where classified (indicative)
Inhalation of nickel and cobalt dusts; reactive fines in high-nickel grades.
Main rules
Where
Rule
Effect
EU
Battery Regulation (EU) 2023/1542: carbon footprint declaration, due diligence, recycled content from 2031 (16% Co, 6% Li, 6% Ni)
rewards low-carbon and traceable cathode
US
45X manufacturing credit with prohibited foreign entity limits; the 2025-26 anti-dumping case on Chinese anode material ended without duties after the ITC's negative vote (Mar 2026)
pushes non-Chinese supply chains
China
MOFCOM and GAC Announcement No. 58 of 2025 (9 Oct 2025, due to apply from 8 Nov 2025): export licences for LFP cathode with compaction density of at least 2.5 g/cm3 and capacity of at least 156 mAh/g, NCM and NCA hydroxide precursors, lithium-rich manganese cathode, cathode kilns and mills, and cells of at least 300 Wh/kg; suspended by Announcement No. 70 (7 Nov 2025) until 10 Nov 2026
China can restrict cathode and know-how exports at short notice
India
Rule
Effect
PLI for Advanced Chemistry Cell (ACC) battery storage: Rs 18,100 crore for 50 GWh; DVA 25% in two years and 60% in five
local cathode helps cell makers meet value-addition targets; about 40 GWh awarded, 1.4 GWh commissioned and no incentive paid by Oct 2025 (IEEFA, Jan 2026)
Battery Waste Management Rules 2022 (EPR for battery producers)
creates recycled feed for future cathode plants
National Critical Mineral Mission (2025) and 2023 critical minerals list (lithium, nickel, cobalt)
supports overseas sourcing and refining (indicative)
Trade measures
China Announcement No. 58 (2025) export licensing of high-density LFP, ternary precursors and cathode equipment, suspended by Announcement No. 70 until 10 Nov 2026
US foreign-entity rules on credits (indicative)
EU Battery Regulation carbon footprint rules
Supply risk
Extreme concentration: China about 98% of NMC CAM and almost all LFP, plus most lithium, nickel and cobalt refining. The suspended Chinese export controls lapse on 10 November 2026 unless extended. Lithium, nickel and cobalt are on India's 2023 critical list.