Battery electrolytes: Cycles

How LiPF6 crashed below cost, then tripled in months

Electrolyte follows LiPF6, and LiPF6 follows lithium prices and its own capacity cycle. After the 2021-22 shortage, Chinese firms added large LiPF6 capacity; prices then fell for three years until LiPF6 was below cost in mid-2025. Fast storage growth and capacity exits then tripled the price within two quarters. Solvent prices are low and stable because they are petrochemicals with spare capacity. The floor is integrated Chinese cash cost; the ceiling is set by new capacity, which takes about a year to build.

LiPF6 price less 0.24 t lithium carbonate and 0.8 t HF at market prices; not published, but the July 2025 low was described as below cost.

Booms and busts

1. 2021-2022

   EV demand outran LiPF6 capacity, and lithium prices surged. LiPF6 producers earned record margins and announced large expansions.

   LiPF6 rose from about RMB 85,000/t (Jan 2020) to a peak of roughly RMB 500,000-600,000/t in 2021-22 (indicative, widely reported)

2. 2023-mid 2025

   New capacity and lower lithium prices crushed prices; solvent prices hit lows.

   LiPF6 fell to RMB 49,600/t in July 2025; solvents near RMB 4,000/t in 2022-24 (HKEX document)

3. Late 2025-2026

   Storage and EV demand rose 37% and capacity tightened. Prices more than tripled and Tinci's profit surged.

   LiPF6 above RMB 170,000/t by Q4 2025; Tinci H1 2026 profit up 908-1,020% (HKEX document; SMM)

What drives the cycle

• Battery GWh. About 1.3 kg of electrolyte per kWh, so volume tracks cell output, especially LFP storage.
• LiPF6 capacity cycle. Salt capacity takes about a year to build and is lumpy, so shortages and gluts alternate.
• Lithium carbonate price. Passed into LiPF6 and electrolyte prices.
• Fluorspar and HF. Chinese fluorspar safety closures tightened HF in 2024-25.

Metrics to track