Phenol and acetone: Cycles

A glut, five-year lows and a German plant shut

What this tab covers How its prices and margins move: past booms and busts with price levels, the spread or margin that the industry watches, the drivers of the cycle and the metrics to track.

Phenol-acetone margins are the sum of two prices against benzene and propylene. The cycle follows BPA and polycarbonate demand, which in turn follows electronics, cars and construction. China's capacity rose from 3 Mt/yr in 2019 to 7.19 Mt/yr in 2025, which has kept margins weak since 2023. Acetone often sets the pain point because it has fewer outlets. The floor is set by run cuts in Europe and the US; spikes come with feedstock shocks such as the 2026 benzene rally.

The spread to watch Phenol-acetone value minus cumene cost

(Phenol + 0.62 x acetone) minus (0.87 x benzene + 0.47 x propylene), per t phenol. Recent levels not published in sources reached; S&P Global describes phenol and acetone margins as weak in Asia and the US into 2026.

Booms and busts

2019-2024
China more than doubled phenol capacity, from 3 Mt/yr to 6.6 Mt/yr (Argus), cutting imports and exporting surplus into India and Southeast Asia.
not published in sources reached
2025
Glut and weak BPA demand. Chinese prices hit five-year lows, Chinese BPA ran below 70%, and INEOS announced Gladbeck's closure. Indian producers sought anti-dumping duties.
East China phenol about CNY5,800/t ex-tank in December 2025, lowest since November 2020; CFR India $800-842/t and Kandla ex-tank Rs 83.50-84.50/kg (OPIS, Dec 2025)
March-May 2026
Benzene costs jumped after the Hormuz disruption while phenol demand stayed weak, so margins for phenol and other benzene derivatives turned negative (OPIS).
FOB Korea benzene averaged $1,139/t in April 2026 (OPIS); phenol prices not published in sources reached

What drives the cycle

BPA and polycarbonate demand. About 45% of phenol goes to BPA; polycarbonate follows electronics and cars.
Chinese capacity. 7.19 Mt/yr and still rising by about 680 kt in 2026 (S&P Global).
Acetone outlets. Acetone has fewer uses; when solvent and MMA demand is weak, acetone prices fall and drag the pair down.
Benzene and propylene costs. Feed is about 80% of cash cost.
Trade remedies. Indian anti-dumping investigations on phenol and acetone (2025-2026) can lift domestic prices.

Metrics to track

Metric	Why it matters	Where to track it
Kandla phenol inventories	India's balance: about 27,300 t in mid-December 2025	OPIS
China phenol and BPA run rates	Demand signal	OPIS, Mysteel
CFR India phenol	Indian import price	OPIS, ICIS, Platts