Chemical process catalysts: Cycles

Why steady reloads meet lumpy new plant orders

What this tab covers How its prices and margins move: past booms and busts with price levels, the spread or margin that the industry watches, the drivers of the cycle and the metrics to track.

Catalyst prices are private, so the cycle shows in supplier results. Reload demand is steady and margins are high, but first-fill sales tied to new plants are lumpy and follow chemical investment cycles. Licensing income swings most. The 2025-2026 period shows the pattern: weak chemical capex and postponed hydrogen projects hit licensing and Power-to-X, while reload catalyst sales held up. The floor is the installed base; the ceiling is when new capacity waves end.

The spread to watch Supplier EBITDA or EBIT margin

Clariant Catalysts 20.8% EBITDA (2025); Topsoe 8.9% EBIT (2025); JM Catalyst Technologies 7.9% operating margin (2025/26).

Booms and busts

2024-2025
Clariant cut costs and lost propylene catalyst volume but raised margin; Topsoe's large projects in the Americas and Asia were postponed.
Clariant Catalysts sales CHF 883 million to CHF 816 million, EBITDA margin 17.4% to 20.8%; Topsoe EBIT margin before special items 10.1% to 8.9% (company releases)
2024/25-2025/26
JM Catalyst Technologies saw licensing income collapse as projects were delayed, and sold the business to Honeywell at a price cut from £1.8 billion to £1,325 million (completed July 2026).
Sales £652 million to £558 million, licensing £105 million to £67 million, operating margin 13.8% to 7.9% (JM)
2026
Topsoe first guided 2026 EBIT margin to 0-5% and took large Power-to-X restructuring charges as electrolyser orders stalled, then raised guidance in August on catalyst sales and technology execution.
2026 revenue outlook DKK 8.0-8.5 billion, EBIT margin 7-10%; restructuring DKK 4.1-4.4 billion (Topsoe, 27 Aug 2026)

What drives the cycle

Chemical plant investment. First fills and licences come with new ammonia, methanol, polyolefin and PDH plants; China and India dominate new capacity.
Plant run rates. Reload timing stretches when plants run slowly.
Hydrogen and e-fuel project decisions. New markets for SOEC, ammonia and e-methanol catalysts depend on subsidy and offtake.
Metal prices. Silver, nickel and PGM prices change customer working capital and leasing costs.

Metrics to track

Metric	Why it matters	Where to track it
Supplier order intake and margins	only public view of the market	Topsoe, Clariant, JM, BASF results
Chemical capex announcements	first-fill demand	ICIS, company releases
Low-carbon hydrogen FIDs	new catalyst markets	IEA Global Hydrogen Review