PVC: Cycles

How Chinese energy curbs sent Indian prices to records

What this tab covers How its prices and margins move: past booms and busts with price levels, the spread or margin that the industry watches, the drivers of the cycle and the metrics to track.

PVC tracks construction and infrastructure, especially in China and India, plus feedstock shocks. Prices are set by Chinese carbide-route cost and US export offers. Chinese energy curbs in 2021 hit carbide supply and sent prices to records; since 2023 weak Chinese property demand and new capacity have kept PVC near cash cost. Trade remedies matter more for PVC than for any other commodity plastic: the EU, UK, Brazil and India have all acted against US or Chinese PVC. India's price is CFR India import parity plus any duties, and domestic producers follow it.

The spread to watch PVC minus ethylene and chlorine cost (ethylene route); PVC minus carbide cost (China)

Ethylene-route cash cost is roughly 0.48 x ethylene plus chlorine power cost plus about $100-150/t conversion, about $600-700/t at 2025 prices (indicative). Prices of $625-720/t in 2025-2026 left little margin outside the US Gulf. Indian producers track the PVC-to-ethylene or PVC-to-VCM spread on imported feed.

Booms and busts

2021
China's energy dual-control curbs cut carbide and PVC output, while US Gulf outages after the Texas freeze cut exports. Indian PVC prices hit records.
Indian PVC prices reached record highs (VCM tile); CFR India levels above $1,500/t at the peak (indicative)
2022
India's anti-dumping duty on suspension PVC from China, Thailand and the US, first imposed in 2014 at $29.99-147.96/t, lapsed in February 2022 without extension.
Chinese offers about 8-10% below Indian producer prices; freight China-India $280-300/t (antidumping.vn, Feb 2022)
2024-2025
Glut and weak Chinese construction. DGTR recommended provisional anti-dumping duties of $25-339/t on S-PVC from seven countries in Nov 2024. US prices hit five-year lows; Brazil raised its duty on US PVC to 43%.
CFR India $695/t (May 2025) and $715/t (23 Jul 2025); FAS Houston $630/t, down 22% y/y; FOB China $625/t (24 Jul 2025) (S&P Global)
2026
India opened a countervailing-duty probe into Chinese S-PVC on 27 Feb 2026 and China revoked VAT export rebates on PVC from 1 Apr 2026, both raising Chinese landed costs in India. On 24 Jul 2026 DGFT restricted S-PVC imports priced at or below $0.766/kg CIF for six months.
S-PVC CFR India $720/t (25 Feb 2026, Platts)

What drives the cycle

Construction and infrastructure. Pipes and profiles are about 60% of demand; Chinese property and Indian water and irrigation spending set volumes.
Chinese energy and coal policy. Most Chinese PVC is carbide-based; power curbs or coal prices move the global floor.
Trade remedies. EU, UK, Brazil and India duties redirect US and Chinese PVC and shift regional spreads.
Chlorine-caustic balance. PVC is the main chlorine sink; weak caustic or strong chlorine demand changes ethylene-route costs (chlorine tile).
Monsoon and agricultural season in India. Irrigation pipe demand drops in the monsoon and rises before sowing (indicative).

Metrics to track

Metric	Why it matters	Where to track it
S-PVC CFR India	Import parity price for India	S&P Global Platts, Polymerupdate, ChemOrbis
FOB China and FAS Houston PVC	The two main export offers	Platts, ICIS
Dalian PVC futures	Real-time Chinese carbide-route sentiment	Dalian Commodity Exchange
DGTR case notices	Duties change landed cost by $25-339/t	DGTR, Gazette of India
China carbide and coal prices	Sets carbide-route cost	SunSirs, Mysteel