Beef: Cycles

How the long herd cycle drives beef prices

The World Bank beef price was $6.86/kg in September 2026, close to $6.90 a year earlier and 19% above $5.77 five years ago. Over ten years it ranged from $3.63 to $8.21, the latter its highest since 2000. Cattle prices follow a long herd cycle, because calves take years to reach slaughter weight. Feed matters too: Geman notes that dear corn floods the market with animals and depresses cattle prices (pdf p. 172). Morgan describes the 1973-74 corn spike sending young cattle to slaughter early (pdf p. 231).

Beef price

Chart: Beef monthly price

Super-cycles in beef

Beef follows a long cattle cycle rather than a commodity super-cycle. High prices make ranchers keep heifers for breeding, which cuts slaughter first and raises supply only two to three years later; drought or dear feed forces liquidation, which floods the market and then leaves herds short. The World Bank beef price rose from an annual average of $0.74/kg in 1960 to $2.88/kg in 1979, drifted for two decades, then climbed in steps to a record monthly average of $8.21/kg in March-April 2026 as the US herd shrank. Unlike most commodities, the nominal beef price has trended up over the long run, because demand grows with incomes while herds expand slowly.

1. 1972-1975

   Strong demand and the 1973-74 grain price spike: dear maize sent young cattle to slaughter early, briefly lifting supply and then crushing prices (Morgan).

   annual average $1.48/kg (1972) to $2.01/kg (1973), then a monthly average low of $1.14/kg (Mar 1975)

2. 1976-1980

   US herd liquidation in the mid-1970s left supplies short by the late 1970s.

   monthly average peak $3.15/kg (Apr 1979); annual average $2.88/kg in 1979

3. 1995-2003

   Ample herds, the UK BSE crisis from 1996 and the Asian crisis weakened prices.

   monthly average low $1.63/kg (Jul 1995); annual average $1.72/kg in 1998

4. 2011-2015

   Drought in the US southern plains from 2011 forced herd liquidation, and Chinese imports began to grow.

   monthly average from $3.02/kg (Jan 2010) to $6.17/kg (Sep 2014)

5. 2024-2026

   The US cattle inventory hit its smallest level in 73 years in 2024, in a cycle then in its 12th year (American Farm Bureau, Mar 2025). US beef output fell to a projected 24.9 bn lb in 2026 while imports rose.

   monthly averages: $4.79/kg (Dec 2023) to a record $8.21/kg (Mar-Apr 2026), $6.86/kg in Sep 2026

What drives the cycle

• Cattle herd cycle. Heifer retention cuts supply before it raises it, so price swings last years; the January herd count is the key supply guide (Geman).
• Feed grain prices. Dear maize pushes cattle to slaughter early and depresses cattle prices in the short run, then tightens supply (Geman; Morgan).
• Drought and pasture. Dry years in the US plains, Australia or Argentina force liquidation and later shortages.
• Animal disease and sanitary bans. BSE, foot-and-mouth disease and screwworm outbreaks can shut export markets overnight.
• China's import demand. China took 39.1% of world frozen beef imports by value in 2024, so its tariffs, safeguards and plant approvals move prices (UN Comtrade).

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