Cadmium: Cycles
Why this minor metal stays so cheap
What this tab covers Price history and what drives booms and busts, including this commodity's super-cycles, the drivers behind them and the metrics to track. It charts monthly prices (World Bank) with a switch to inflation-adjusted annual prices; where there is no World Bank series it uses USGS US prices.The Fastmarkets free-market price for 99.95% metal, reported by USGS, rose from $2.56/kg in 2021 to $4.12 in 2024. It dipped to $3.90 in 2025. These are low prices for a minor metal, reflecting by-product supply and shrinking traditional uses. Lithium-ion batteries replaced NiCd in consumer goods, and toxicity rules cut pigment and coating use. CdTe solar is the main growth market. Supply cannot react to price, so swings come from zinc smelting and solar factory build-outs.
US price, Free-market 99.95% metal, CIF global ports (Fastmarkets)
2021 2.56 2022 3.42 2023 4.06 2024 4.12 2025 3.90 dollars per kilogram. USGS MCS 2026; 2025 is an estimate.Super-cycles in cadmium
Cadmium has no super-cycle; its long-run story is shrinking demand against a supply fixed by zinc smelting. Toxicity rules and the move from NiCd to lithium batteries cut its main markets, so prices have mostly been low and drifting. Spikes come when zinc smelting falls or when a new use, such as CdTe solar, appears. The free-market price averaged about $6/kg in 2008, fell to $2.56/kg by 2021 and recovered to about $4/kg in 2023-25. World cadmium sales were only about $43 million in 2014 (Tilton and Guzman), so small shifts in buying move the price.
- 2000s to 2008
NiCd batteries were still widespread, while recycling grew and environmental pressure rose. Output was about 19,600 t in 2008, with about 20% from recycling.
Annual average about $6/kg in 2008 (USGS Circular 1365).
- 2009-2021
Lithium-ion batteries displaced consumer NiCd, and rules cut pigment and plating use. Smelters stored surplus cadmium.
Fastmarkets 99.95% free-market price down to $2.56/kg in 2021 (USGS MCS 2026).
- 2022-2025
CdTe solar build-out, including First Solar's fifth US plant, and lower Chinese output in 2022 (8,700 t against 10,000 t in 2021, World Mining Data) tightened the market before a slight easing in 2025.
$3.42/kg (2022), $4.06 (2023), $4.12 (2024), $3.90 (2025) (USGS MCS 2026, Fastmarkets).
What drives the cycle
- Zinc smelter output. Nearly all primary cadmium comes from zinc smelting, led by China and Korea.
- CdTe solar demand. The main growth market; First Solar's US capacity is heading to about 14 GW a year.
- Battery substitution. Lithium-ion keeps replacing NiCd, shrinking the largest traditional use.
- Environmental regulation. Limits on cadmium in pigments, coatings and electronics cut demand and raise disposal costs.
- Smelter stockpiling. When prices are low, smelters hold cadmium rather than sell, creating hidden stocks that cap rallies.
Metrics to track
| Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it |
|---|---|---|
| Cadmium 99.95% free-market price, CIF global ports | Benchmark | Fastmarkets |
| Chinese refined zinc output | Proxy for by-product supply | National Bureau of Statistics of China; ILZSG |
| First Solar module production | Main growth demand | First Solar quarterly reports |
| Cadmium trade flows (HS 8112.61, 8112.69) | Tracks exports from China and Korea | UN Comtrade; USGS Mineral Industry Surveys |
| Hindustan Zinc refined zinc output | India's cadmium supply indicator | Hindustan Zinc quarterly production releases |