Chromium: Cycles
How a Chinese stainless slump halved ferrochrome prices
What this tab covers Price history and what drives booms and busts, including this commodity's super-cycles, the drivers behind them and the metrics to track. It charts monthly prices (World Bank) with a switch to inflation-adjusted annual prices; where there is no World Bank series it uses USGS US prices.Chromium has no exchange price; USGS reports Argus assessments. Ferrochromium averaged $3.19 per pound of chromium in 2022, then fell to about $1.60 in 2025. USGS links the fall to oversupply and weak demand in Chinese stainless steel. Chromite ore rose from $199 a tonne in 2021 to $331 in 2024, then eased to $290. Ore and alloy can diverge: South African power and logistics constrain ore, while Chinese smelter margins drive alloy. Demand follows stainless steel, which tracks construction, appliances and industrial investment.
US price, Ferrochromium, chromium content (Argus)
2021 1.50 2022 3.19 2023 2.55 2024 1.76 2025 1.60 dollars per pound. USGS MCS 2026; 2025 is an estimate.Super-cycles in chromium
Chromium follows stainless steel, and stainless follows China. Price is set mainly for ferrochrome, which bundles ore with electricity, so power costs and outages in South Africa move it as much as demand. Recent history shows a sharp spike in 2022 and a long slide since, ending in mass smelter closures in South Africa in 2025. A long-run price series for ferrochrome was not available in the sources used; USGS reports US ferrochrome at $1.50/lb Cr in 2021, $3.19 in 2022 and $1.60 in 2025.
- 2021-2022
Post-pandemic stainless demand, high energy prices and power shortfalls at South African smelters tightened ferrochrome supply.
US ferrochrome more than doubled from $1.50/lb Cr (2021) to $3.19/lb (2022); chromite ore rose from $199/t to $277/t (USGS, Argus)
- 2023-2024
Chinese stainless oversupply and weaker consumer demand lowered ferrochrome prices while ore stayed firm because Chinese smelters kept buying South African ore (USGS).
Ferrochrome fell to $2.55/lb (2023) and $1.76/lb (2024); ore rose to $331/t (2024) (USGS)
- 2025-2026
Low ferrochrome prices and high Eskom tariffs closed South African smelters; Glencore suspended Boshoek and Wonderkop and its attributable output fell 63%. South Africa increasingly exports ore instead of alloy.
Ferrochrome $1.60/lb and ore $290/t in 2025 (USGS); Glencore ferrochrome 436 kt vs about 1,166 kt in 2024
What drives the cycle
- Chinese stainless steel output. China is the leading stainless producer and chromium consumer, so its mill runs set ferrochrome demand (USGS).
- South African electricity price and supply. Smelting is power-intensive; Eskom tariffs and outages decide whether South Africa sells alloy or only ore.
- Ore export policy. Possible South African ore export controls or taxes could cut supply to Chinese smelters (USGS 2026).
- Indonesian stainless expansion. Indonesia took 9% of ore imports and 12.5% of ferrochrome imports in 2024 (UN Comtrade), adding a new demand centre.
- Stainless scrap availability. More scrap means less new ferrochrome per tonne of stainless.
Metrics to track
| Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it |
|---|---|---|
| World and Chinese stainless melt shop output | Direct demand for ferrochrome | Worldstainless (ISSF) quarterly statistics |
| Tsingshan monthly high-carbon ferrochrome tender price | Sets Chinese spot reference | SMM, Fastmarkets, Argus reports |
| European quarterly charge chrome benchmark | Reference for contract sales to European mills | Fastmarkets, Argus |
| Chinese chromite ore port stocks and imports | Shows ore tightness | China Customs (GACC); SMM |
| Eskom tariffs and South African smelter announcements | Supply side swing | NERSA decisions; Merafe and Glencore quarterly reports |
| OMC chrome ore e-auction volumes and bids | Indian ore market signal | Odisha Mining Corporation; BigMint |