Kaolin & clays: Cycles

Why common clay is too cheap to travel

Clay prices are steady. The US average kaolin value edged up from $151/t in 2021 to about $170/t in 2025, and bentonite from $100/t to $110/t. Common clay sells for about $21/t, so it barely travels. Demand follows construction, ceramics and paper. Kaolin has lost ground in paper to calcium carbonate fillers and to falling printing-paper use. Bentonite tracks drilling activity and pet-litter sales. US kaolin exports fell from 2.33 million t in 2021 to about 1.6 million t in 2025.

US price, Kaolin, average US unit value, ex-works

Super-cycles in kaolin & clays

Clays do not have price super-cycles. US kaolin rose slowly from $151/t to $170/t between 2021 and 2025, and bentonite from $100/t to $110/t. The cycles are in demand mix. Paper coating, once kaolin's prize market, has been shrinking; ceramic tiles in India and China have boomed; bentonite follows oil drilling and pet ownership. Energy prices matter more than clay prices for ceramic clusters, as Morbi's 2026 gas shock showed. World kaolin output rose from 42.7 Mt in 2020 to 48.9 Mt in 2024 (WMD).

1. 2007-2025

   India's tile industry grew fast and Morbi became the second-largest ceramic hub after China (Gujarat government via IANS, 2026), pulling kaolin, ball clay and feldspar demand up with it.

   No clay price series; Indian tile output rose from 385 million sq m (2007) to 1,080 million sq m (2017) (CARE Ratings) and 2,452 million sq m (2025) (MECS)

2. 2021-2025

   US kaolin exports, mainly paper coating and filler grades, fell by about a third while domestic sales held up. Kaolin imports from Brazil dropped after a major producer sold its Brazilian operation in July 2024.

   US kaolin exports 2.33 Mt (2021) to about 1.6 Mt (2025); kaolin unit value $151/t to $170/t; US kaolin imports 176 kt (2024) to 19 kt (2025) (USGS)

3. 2022-23

   Indian clay export values jumped in a single year; the yearbook does not break out tonnages or destinations.

   India's ball clay exports rose 469% to Rs 378 crore and kaolin exports 43% to Rs 344 crore in 2022-23 (IBM)

4. 2026

   A gas price shock hit Morbi: piped gas rose 80% to about Rs 75/Sm3, more than 500 plants shut kilns in March-April, and a 15% fall in Indian tile output was forecast for 2026, cutting clay offtake.

   Clay prices not published; tile price lists rose 15-20% in May 2026 (Ceramic World Web)

What drives the cycle

• Ceramic tile and sanitaryware output. Main use of ball clay and a large use of kaolin, centred on India, China, Spain and Italy.
• Graphic paper demand. Paper coating and filler is kaolin's traditional high-value market and is in long decline.
• Oil and gas drilling. 22% of US bentonite goes to drilling mud; rig counts drive demand.
• Pet ownership. Pet litter is the largest US bentonite use (48%).
• Construction. Common clay goes to brick, aggregate and cement.
• Kiln energy prices. Gas costs set the output of tile clusters that consume clay.

Metrics to track