Coconut oil: Criticality

Not about food security, but about livelihoods

What this tab covers How exposed economies are to a supply disruption: the EU, US and India listings, the concentration score, and a quantified exposure for the US, EU, India, China, Japan, Latin America, the Middle East and Australia. Where the EU scored it, a chart of supply risk against economic importance, with import reliance, recycling input and substitutes.

Exposure by region

Region	Exposure	Share of world output	Share of world imports	Share of world exports	Net trade (US$)	Self-sufficiency	On own critical list	Position
US	High	0.0%	–	–	–	0%	No	Net importer of 440 kt of coconut oil in 2025/26 (USDA) for food and oleochemicals; no domestic production.
EU	High	0.0%	–	–	–	0%	No	Largest importer (655 kt in 2025/26, USDA) for oleochemicals, cosmetics and food.
India	Low	17.6%	–	–	–	103%	No	Largest nut producer (31.24% of world output) and third-largest coconut oil producer (570 kt), self-sufficient in oil and an exporter of products.
China	High	0.0%	–	–	–	0%	No	Importer of 200 kt of coconut oil in 2025/26 (USDA) and a growing buyer of fresh nuts and coconut water.
Japan	High	0.0%	–	–	–	0%	No	Small importer for food and chemicals; not among the main buyers in the data.
Latin America	Medium	5.8%	–	–	–	83%	no list	Mexico (4.2% of world coconut oil output in 2023, FAOSTAT) and Brazil (3.16 Mt of nuts) produce mainly for home markets.
Middle East	n/a	0.0%	–	–	–	–	no list	Importer of desiccated coconut and oil; no production.
Australia	n/a	0.0%	–	–	–	–	No	No significant production; small importer.

Exposure rating: High when the region is a net importer whose import share is at least three times its share of world output (or, for farm goods, it produces under 70% of what it consumes); Medium for other net importers (or 70-95% self-sufficiency), raised to High when world supply is highly concentrated in another country; Low for net exporters or self-sufficient regions. Net importer status uses tonnage where reported, otherwise value. Output: FAOSTAT, 2023. Trade: UN Comtrade (EU = sum of member states, including intra-EU trade). Self-sufficiency: USDA PSD 2026/27. Critical lists: US 2025, EU 2024/1252, India 2023, China 2016 strategic minerals, Japan METI, Australia 2024.

Coconut oil is on neither the US 2025 nor the India 2023 critical list, and the EU did not assess it in 2023. Food security does not hinge on it. Its significance is livelihoods and industry: many smallholders depend on it, and oleochemical makers need lauric feedstock. Supply risk is climatic, since output is concentrated on typhoon- and drought-exposed islands. Substitution is the main safety valve: palm kernel oil has the same lauric profile, and other vegetable oils replace it in many food uses.

EU 2023 Not assessed US 2025 list No India 2023 list No Production HHI 2,308 moderately concentrated