Cotton: Criticality

Low supply risk, high stakes for smallholders and rivers

What this tab covers How exposed economies are to a supply disruption: the EU, US and India listings, the concentration score, and a quantified exposure for the US, EU, India, China, Japan, Latin America, the Middle East and Australia. Where the EU scored it, a chart of supply risk against economic importance, with import reliance, recycling input and substitutes.

Exposure by region

Region	Exposure	Share of world output	Share of world imports	Share of world exports	Net trade (US$)	On own critical list	Position
US	Low	10.6%	0.0%	30.0%	+$5.01 bn	No	Second-largest exporter with 30.0% of world export value in 2024 (UN Comtrade) and only 1.5 million bales of mill use against 13.9 million of output in 2025/26 (WASDE).
EU	Low	1.4%	2.0%	3.3%	+$320.3 m	No	Small producer (1.32 million bales in 2025/26, mainly Greece and Spain) that exports most of it; its textile industry imports yarn and fabric rather than lint (WASDE).
India	Low	22.4%	8.7%	5.4%	−$85.0 m	No	Second-largest grower and user; a net importer in 2025/26 with 5.17 million bales of imports, 8.7% of world import value in 2024 (WASDE; UN Comtrade).
China	Medium	22.7%	46.9%	0.3%	−$5.27 bn	No	Largest user and largest importer (46.9% of world import value in 2024) and holder of about 48% of world stocks in 2025/26 (UN Comtrade; WASDE).
Japan	Low	0.0%	0.6%	0.0%	−$64.2 m	No	No production and a small, shrinking spinning sector: about 130,000 bales of imports in 2026/27 (USDA PSD); not among the top six importers in 2024 (UN Comtrade).
Latin America	Low	14.0%	5.0%	32.2%	+$4.80 bn	no list	Brazil is the largest exporter with 30.9% of world export value in 2024 and 18.75 million bales of output in 2025/26 (UN Comtrade; WASDE).
Middle East	Low	0.3%	0.2%	0.2%	+$11.4 m	no list	Turkey is a large importer (13.5% of world import value in 2024) for its textile industry; Gulf states have no significant output (UN Comtrade).
Australia	Low	5.1%	0.0%	14.5%	+$2.42 bn	No	Exports almost its entire crop, 14.5% of world export value in 2024, with output swinging with irrigation water (UN Comtrade; WASDE).

Exposure rating: High when the region is a net importer whose import share is at least three times its share of world output (or, for farm goods, it produces under 70% of what it consumes); Medium for other net importers (or 70-95% self-sufficiency), raised to High when world supply is highly concentrated in another country; Low for net exporters or self-sufficient regions. Net importer status uses tonnage where reported, otherwise value. Output: FAOSTAT, 2023. Trade: UN Comtrade 2024 (EU = sum of member states, including intra-EU trade). Self-sufficiency: USDA PSD 2026/27. Critical lists: US 2025, EU 2024/1252, India 2023, China 2016 strategic minerals, Japan METI, Australia 2024.

Cotton is on neither the US 2025 nor the India 2023 critical list, and polyester can replace it in most uses, so physical supply risk is low. Its significance is economic and political: cotton supports large numbers of smallholders in India, Pakistan and West Africa, and US subsidies have been challenged at the WTO. Climate risk centres on water, since irrigated cotton in Xinjiang, Pakistan and Central Asia depends on stressed rivers. Forced-labour rules now matter as much as yields for where cotton can be sold.

EU 2023 Not assessed US 2025 list No India 2023 list No Production HHI 1,378 unconcentrated