Helium: Cycles

Why helium lurches between shortage and glut

There is no traded price series. USGS estimates the 2025 US base price for Grade-A helium at about $12 per cubic metre, with producers adding surcharges. Helium markets swing between shortage and glut because supply comes in big, lumpy by-product additions. A new LNG train or a Russian gas plant can add a large share of world supply at once. Outages at a few plants, or sanctions, can remove it just as fast. Demand from MRI and semiconductors grows steadily and is hard to switch off.

US price, Grade-A helium, estimated base price (excludes surcharges and freight)

Super-cycles in helium

Helium has no exchange price, so its cycles show up in contract prices, surcharges and rationing. For decades the US government set the reference price by selling its stockpile. Since that reserve wound down, the market has swung between shortages, when one or two big plants fail, and gluts, when new LNG or gas plants start. Commentators number the shortages; the fourth ended in late 2023 (Kornbluth, via gasworld). Long-run prices have risen strongly in real terms: university labs paid about $7 per litre of liquid helium around 2013 and $30-45 in 2023.

1. 1996-2013

   The Helium Privatization Act of 1996 ordered the US to sell most of a stockpile of about 30.5 billion cubic feet to repay a $1.3 billion debt. Steady government sales at a formula price held market prices down and discouraged new supply.

   BLM crude helium price about $44/Mcf in 1999 and $64.75/Mcf in FY2010 (gasworld, about 2010; BLM 2012).

2. 2013-2024

   The Helium Stewardship Act of 2013 moved sales to auctions and then a full sell-off, while the reserve supplied a falling share. Private prices rose as the reserve faded. The system was sold to Messer in 2024.

   Reserve was 40% of US production in 2014 (GAO); federal system sold for $460 million (E&E News, Dec 2024).

3. 2021-2023 (Shortage 4.0)

   A fire at Russia's Amur plant (Oct 2021), a five-month outage at the Cliffside plant in 2022, sanctions after the invasion of Ukraine and maintenance at Shute Creek cut supply. Suppliers rationed customers.

   PNNL paid $39/L for liquid helium in 2023, double two years earlier; Northwestern about $30/L vs $7/L a decade earlier; a Greek university EUR 44/L vs EUR 24/L a year before (Physics Today, Sept 2023).

4. 2024-2026

   New supply from Qatar, new US wells and plants in Canada and South Africa met weak demand. Kornbluth described plentiful supply and some oversupply from 2024.

   USGS estimated the 2025 Grade-A base price at about $12/m3 ($330/Mcf), with surcharges on top (USGS MCS 2026).

What drives the cycle

• LNG and gas project timing. Helium is a by-product, so new LNG trains in Qatar or gas plants in Russia add large blocks of supply regardless of helium prices.
• Single-plant outages. A handful of plants supply most of the world. One fire or maintenance shutdown, as at Amur or Shute Creek, can tip the market into shortage.
• Sanctions and geopolitics. EU and US bans on Russian helium, and Qatar's dependence on Gulf shipping, limit how freely supply can move.
• Semiconductor and MRI demand. These uses grow steadily and cannot easily switch, so demand stays firm when supply drops.
• Recovery and substitution. High prices push labs to buy recovery systems and MRI makers to cut helium per magnet, which lowers demand for years.

Metrics to track