Lime: Criticality

Abundant everywhere, yet a quiet chokepoint for industry

What this tab covers How exposed economies are to a supply disruption: the EU, US and India listings, the concentration score, and a quantified exposure for the US, EU, India, China, Japan, Latin America, the Middle East and Australia. Where the EU scored it, a chart of supply risk against economic importance, with import reliance, recycling input and substitutes.

Exposure by region

Region	Exposure	Share of world output	Share of world imports	Share of world exports	Net trade (US$)	On own critical list	Position
US	High	–	5.6%	4.0%	−$24.1 m	No	Produced 15 Mt in 2025 and is roughly self-sufficient (net import reliance under 1%), importing mainly from Canada and Mexico (USGS).
EU	Low	–	38.2%	50.5%	+$127.6 m	No	Germany (4.8 Mt), France (3.5 Mt) and Italy (2.5 Mt) are large producers and Germany and France lead world exports; limestone is not critical (supply risk 0.3) (USGS; Comtrade; EU CRM 2023).
India	High	–	6.4%	0.0%	−$86.3 m	No	Second-largest producer at about 17 Mt (2025) yet still an importer, 6.4% of world import value in 2024 (USGS; Comtrade).
China	Low	–	0.0%	5.1%	+$64.4 m	No	Dominates with about 310 Mt, three-quarters of world output (USGS 2025).
Japan	Low	–	0.0%	0.5%	+$6.59 m	No	Produced about 5.9 Mt of quicklime in 2025 (USGS).
Latin America	High	–	9.2%	6.8%	−$37.8 m	no list	Brazil produced 8.2 Mt (2025, USGS), and Chile is a major importer for copper and lithium processing (7.1% of world import value, 2024).
Middle East	Low	–	1.6%	5.0%	+$41.9 m	no list	Iran and Turkey each produced about 4.0 Mt in 2025 (USGS).
Australia	High	–	4.0%	0.0%	−$54.3 m	No	Produced about 1.9 Mt in 2025 (USGS).

Exposure rating: High when the region is a net importer whose import share is at least three times its share of world output (or, for farm goods, it produces under 70% of what it consumes); Medium for other net importers (or 70-95% self-sufficiency), raised to High when world supply is highly concentrated in another country; Low for net exporters or self-sufficient regions. Net importer status uses tonnage where reported, otherwise value. Output: n/a. Trade: UN Comtrade 2024 (EU = sum of member states, including intra-EU trade). Critical lists: US 2025, EU 2024/1252, India 2023, China 2016 strategic minerals, Japan METI, Australia 2024.

Lime is not on the US 2025 or India 2023 critical mineral lists. Raw material is abundant, and every region can make its own. Yet lime is a quiet chokepoint. Basic steelmaking depends on it to strip phosphorus into slag, the trick Thomas and Gilchrist found in the 1870s (Smil). Glass is soda-lime glass (Conway). Substitutes exist: limestone in agriculture and scrubbing, magnesium hydroxide for pH control and magnesia for steel fluxing. The bigger risk is the CO2 released by calcination.

EU 2023 Not assessed US 2025 list No India 2023 list No US net import reliance, 2025 0% share of apparent consumption

Substitutes

Limestone (agriculture, fluxing, sulphur removal); calcined gypsum (plasters); cement, kiln dust, fly ash (construction); magnesium hydroxide (pH); magnesia (steel flux)