Timber: Criticality

Why Europe has no timber supply worries

What this tab covers How exposed economies are to a supply disruption: the EU, US and India listings, the concentration score, and a quantified exposure for the US, EU, India, China, Japan, Latin America, the Middle East and Australia. Where the EU scored it, a chart of supply risk against economic importance, with import reliance, recycling input and substitutes.

Exposure by region

Region	Exposure	Share of world output	Share of world imports	Share of world exports	Net trade (US$)	On own critical list	Position
US	High	–	15.9%	12.0%	−$3.79 bn	No	Largest sawnwood importer (23.1% of world value, 2024) and largest roundwood producer (18%), with duties on Canadian lumber (UN Comtrade; EU CRM 2023; Interfor).
EU	Low	–	25.7%	37.8%	+$6.04 bn	No	Self-sufficient in roundwood (import reliance 0%) and a large sawnwood exporter through Sweden, Germany, Finland and Austria (EU CRM 2023; UN Comtrade 2024).
India	High	–	1.7%	0.0%	−$1.23 bn	No	Small roundwood producer (2% of world) relying on farm trees and imports of sawnwood ($501 million in 2024), pulp and tropical logs (EU CRM 2023; UN Comtrade).
China	High	–	32.0%	0.4%	−$23.3 bn	No	Second-largest roundwood producer (16%) and the largest pulp importer (42.1% of value) and second-largest sawnwood importer (20.2%) in 2024 (EU CRM 2023; UN Comtrade).
Japan	High	–	3.3%	0.4%	−$2.18 bn	No	Imports 4.5% of world sawnwood value (2024) despite large domestic forests (UN Comtrade).
Latin America	Low	–	3.0%	22.6%	+$12.7 bn	no list	Brazil is the largest pulp exporter (28.2% of value, 2024) and Chile the fourth (9.0%), both from plantations (UN Comtrade).
Middle East	High	–	1.3%	0.0%	−$930.6 m	no list	Wood-poor importers: Egypt took 2.4% and Saudi Arabia 1.5% of world sawnwood import value in 2024 (UN Comtrade).
Australia	Low	–	0.7%	0.0%	−$509.2 m	No	Supplies 1% of world roundwood and imports 1.0% of world sawnwood value (EU CRM 2023; UN Comtrade 2024).

Exposure rating: High when the region is a net importer whose import share is at least three times its share of world output (or, for farm goods, it produces under 70% of what it consumes); Medium for other net importers (or 70-95% self-sufficiency), raised to High when world supply is highly concentrated in another country; Low for net exporters or self-sufficient regions. Net importer status uses tonnage where reported, otherwise value. Output: n/a. Trade: UN Comtrade 2024 (EU = sum of member states, including intra-EU trade). Critical lists: US 2025, EU 2024/1252, India 2023, China 2016 strategic minerals, Japan METI, Australia 2024.

Timber is not critical on any list. The EU scores roundwood's supply risk at 0.1, with economic importance of 1.2 and net import reliance of 0%, since Europe grows its own. It appears on neither the US 2025 nor the India 2023 lists. Steel, concrete and plastics substitute in many uses, while engineered timber gains ground as a lower-carbon building material. The real risks are climatic: wildfire, drought and bark-beetle outbreaks. The EU deforestation regulation adds traceability requirements for imported wood products.

EU 2023 Not critical US 2025 list No India 2023 list No

EU 2023 assessment

Chart: EU 2023 criticality: supply risk against economic importance

Each dot is a material assessed by the EU in 2023. The shaded corner is the critical zone (supply risk ≥ 1.0, economic importance ≥ 2.8). Timber: supply risk 0.1, economic importance 1.2. EU import reliance, extraction 0% EU recycling input rate 20%