Mercury: Cycles

A price that lurches about while demand withers

The average value of US imports was $29/kg in 2021, $22 in 2023 and $50 in 2024. Volumes are tiny, so the series is erratic. Mercury's long-run story is demand destruction. Lighting, batteries, paints and thermometers have largely switched away. Blas and Farchy recount how a young Marc Rich bet on mercury in the 1950s. A US stockpiling programme launched in 1954 then mandated purchases equal to almost a third of world output (pdf p. 49). Tilton and Guzmán record a world mercury cartel lasting from 1928 to 1972 (pdf p. 193).

US price, Average unit value of US imports

Super-cycles in mercury

Mercury's long-run story is demand destruction, not cycles. Once vital for silver refining, batteries, paints and instruments, it has been regulated out of most uses, leaving artisanal gold mining as the main buyer. Its price history is driven by policy: US stockpiling in the 1950s, a producer cartel until 1972, then export bans in the EU (2011) and US (2013) and the Minamata Convention (2017), which cut legal supply faster than illegal demand. That pushed prices up in 2017-18 even as trade volumes fell. The main Western price assessments were then discontinued for lack of trade.

1. 1928-1972

   A world mercury cartel operated from 1928 to 1972 (Tilton and Guzman). A US stockpiling programme from mid-1954 mandated purchases equal to almost a third of world output, a trade that made a young Marc Rich's name (Blas and Farchy).

   No price series in the sources used.

2. 2011-2016

   The EU banned exports from 2011 and the US from 1 January 2013, removing Western recycled and stored mercury from world trade. Legal trade collapsed while artisanal demand moved to informal supply such as Indonesian mining.

   World trade value peaked at about $210-232 million in 2012 (about 4,040 t, implying roughly $52/kg) and fell to $45.3 million in 2015 (UNEP; IPEN 2017).

3. 2017-2019

   The Minamata Convention entered into force in 2017, restricting new mining and trade. With fewer sellers, prices for the remaining legal metal rose.

   Global-locations 99.99% price $1,273/flask (2017), $2,709/flask (2018, about $79/kg) and $2,550/flask (2019); the EU price was $1,041-1,100/flask before being discontinued in May 2018 (USGS MCS 2022).

4. 2020-2024

   The global price assessment was discontinued in December 2019 because spot trade was too thin (Fastmarkets). Average trade values fell; 2021 averages were about a quarter of 2018 levels (JMCWM 2023).

   US import unit value $29/kg (2021), $33 (2022), $22 (2023) and $50 (2024), on tiny volumes (USGS MCS 2026).

What drives the cycle

• Gold price and artisanal mining activity. ASGM uses about 2,000 t a year; high gold prices draw more small-scale miners and more mercury demand.
• Minamata Convention enforcement. Bans on new mines, product phase-outs and trade consent rules shrink legal supply and demand.
• Export bans and storage. EU and US bans mean their surplus goes to storage, such as the planned 7,000 t US facility, not to market.
• Chinese VCM demand. Coal-based PVC plants used about 900 t at the 2014 peak; mercury-free catalysts would remove that demand.
• Chlor-alkali closures and lamp recycling. Retiring mercury cells and fluorescent lamps releases large secondary supply.

Metrics to track