Selenium: Cycles
A steady climb in a quiet by-product market
What this tab covers Price history and what drives booms and busts, including this commodity's super-cycles, the drivers behind them and the metrics to track. It charts monthly prices (World Bank) with a switch to inflation-adjusted annual prices; where there is no World Bank series it uses USGS US prices.The US warehouse price for 99.5% material rose from $18.18/kg in 2021 to $24.19 in 2024. It reached an estimated $28 in 2025, up 16% in a year. Rotterdam prices moved in step, to about $29. Because selenium is a by-product, supply barely responds to its own price. Output tracks copper refinery throughput, so prices swing on demand from glass, manganese and solar. Spare refinery capacity, about a third above output, helps cap spikes when demand rises.
US price, US warehouse, 99.5% Se (Argus)
2021 18.2 2022 23.1 2023 23.1 2024 24.2 2025 28.0 dollars per kilogram. USGS MCS 2026; 2025 is an estimate.Super-cycles in selenium
Selenium has no super-cycle of its own; its price swings come from demand shifts in a few industries against a supply fixed by copper refining. Prices rose through the 2000s as Chinese electrolytic manganese output grew, averaging about $71/kg in 2008. They then fell for a decade as Chinese copper refiners, whose anode capacity more than doubled, added slime circuits. By 2021 the US price was about $18/kg. Since then prices have recovered modestly to about $28-29/kg in 2025. Large spare refinery capacity tends to cap rallies.
- 2000s to 2008
Chinese electrolytic manganese production for steel, glass demand and early CIGS solar interest pushed demand up while supply stayed tied to copper refining. Higher prices drew exploration for selenium deposits.
Annual average about $71/kg in 2008 (USGS Circular 1365).
- 2009-2021
China's copper refining boom raised its selenium output from about 930 t (2017) to about 1,360 t (2019) and beyond, turning a tight market into a well-supplied one (IBM 2020).
US warehouse 99.5% price down to $18.18/kg in 2021 (USGS MCS 2026, Argus), about a quarter of the 2008 level.
- 2022-2025
Prices recovered as IBM (2020) had expected from declining North American concentrate supply and growing Chinese demand; US refineries produced less in 2025 as cathode output fell (USGS 2026).
US warehouse $23.07/kg (2022), $24.19 (2024) and about $28 (2025); Rotterdam about $29 in 2025 (USGS MCS 2026).
What drives the cycle
- Chinese electrolytic manganese output. Metallurgy, led by manganese electrolysis, takes about 40% of selenium.
- Copper refinery throughput and slime treatment. Over 80% of supply comes from copper anode slimes; China's refining growth drove the 2010s surplus.
- Glass production. Container and float glass decolouring takes about 20%.
- Agricultural and feed demand. Feed supplements and fertiliser additives take about 20% and grow with livestock output.
- Spare refinery capacity. About 1,300 t of unused capacity in 2025 can be switched on when prices rise.
Metrics to track
| Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it |
|---|---|---|
| US warehouse and Rotterdam 99.5% selenium prices | Benchmarks | Argus Non-Ferrous Markets; Fastmarkets |
| China electrolytic manganese metal output | Largest demand driver | Asian Metal; Shanghai Metals Market |
| Global refined copper output | Ceiling on by-product supply | ICSG monthly bulletin |
| Selenium trade flows (HS 2804.90) | Shows who imports for glass and pharma, including India | UN Comtrade; India DGCIS |
| Chinese selenium imports and exports | China is both top producer and top importer | China customs via Asian Metal |