Talc: Cycles
A steady price that follows car and building output
What this tab covers Price history and what drives booms and busts, including this commodity's super-cycles, the drivers behind them and the metrics to track. It charts monthly prices (World Bank) with a switch to inflation-adjusted annual prices; where there is no World Bank series it uses USGS US prices.There is no World Bank price for talc. The US average ex-works value of milled talc stayed between $298 and $333 per tonne in 2021–2025, reaching $330 in 2025. Demand follows plastics, paint, ceramics and paper, so it tracks car output, construction and packaging. Long-run demand has weakened in some uses. Water-based paints suit hydrophobic talc poorly, tile firing needs less talc, and paper use began declining in the 1990s. Health regulation is now a bigger driver than the business cycle.
US price, Talc, milled, average ex-works unit value
2021 322 2022 298 2023 333 2024 331 2025 330 dollars per metric ton. USGS MCS 2026; 2025 is an estimate.Super-cycles in talc
Talc has no price super-cycle; US milled talc has stayed near $300-330/t. Its big swings are legal and regulatory. Thousands of lawsuits alleging asbestos contamination pushed producers into bankruptcy and buyers out of cosmetic talc, while EU and US regulators moved toward stricter classification and testing. Meanwhile, demand shifted from paper and paint toward plastics, and supply shifted toward China, India, Pakistan and Afghanistan. World output was about 6.8 Mt in 2020 and 6.9 Mt in 2025 (WMD; USGS).
- 1990s-2010s
Paper makers cut talc use from the 1990s, replacing pitch-control talc with chemicals, and paint moved to water-based systems where talc works less well (USGS). Plastics, especially car polypropylene, became the main growth market.
No long price series in the sources used
- 2019-2023
Talc litigation drove Imerys Talc America into Chapter 11 in 2019 and its North American assets were later sold to Magris; Barretts Minerals filed in 2023. Johnson & Johnson ended talc baby powder sales worldwide in 2023.
US milled talc $322/t (2021), $298/t (2022), $333/t (2023) (USGS)
- 2024-2026
The FDA proposed stricter asbestos testing for cosmetic talc (December 2024) and ECHA's risk committee recommended classing talc as a Category 1B carcinogen (July 2025). Elementis sold its talc arm to IMI Fabi for an enterprise value of $121 million (May 2025). US imports from China more than doubled in 2025.
US milled talc $331/t (2024) and about $330/t (2025) (USGS)
What drives the cycle
- Automotive polypropylene. Plastics are the largest US use (36%); car output and lightweighting drive it.
- Health regulation and litigation. EU carcinogen classification and US testing rules can cut cosmetic and pharma demand and raise compliance costs.
- Paper and paint technology. Long-run substitution by calcium carbonate, kaolin and chemicals shrinks traditional uses.
- Asian supply and trade policy. China, India, Pakistan and Afghanistan supply most of the world; tariffs shift sourcing quickly.
Metrics to track
| Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it |
|---|---|---|
| US talc sales, imports and milled price | Benchmark volume and price | USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries |
| Global light-vehicle production | Driver of talc-filled polypropylene | OICA annual statistics |
| ECHA CLP classification decisions on talc | Could change EU labelling and demand | European Chemicals Agency |
| FDA cosmetic talc testing rule | Affects cosmetic grades and testing costs | US Food and Drug Administration |
| India steatite export values | India's position in Asian markets | IBM Indian Minerals Yearbook; DGCIS trade data |